More Americans should be expected to return to the labor market as unemployment benefits gradually decline, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday. Speaking at a virtual event organized by the Rice University, he noted that conflicting data on unemployment create “a puzzle” that does not require additional measures of monetary policy easing. Moving on to economic supply problems, he stated that they should be viewed as structural and that they may not be as affected by monetary policy steps as some demand issues were during previous economic recoveries.
Initial jobless claims in US down 20,000 to 385,000
Fed: Recovery picked up pace in past 2 months
Radio Free Wall Street
Machiavelli Was Right
We’ve been to Hell and now we’re back and the back part is what interests me now.
Fed far from goals, but seeing progress – Brainard
WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) – The United States is making progress towards the Fed’s maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, but the depth of the remaining problem still requires the central bank not jump the gun in starting to tighten monetary policy, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday. “While we are far from our goals today, we are seeing welcome progress, and I expect to see further progress,” Brainard said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Economic Club of New York. But “jobs are down by between 8 and 10 million compared with the level we would have seen in the absence of the pandemic. And it will be important to see sustained progress on inflation,” not just a temporary jump. Some of the factors fueling current strong growth, including fiscal spending and the rush by households to take advantage of a broader economic reopening, are likely to fade over time, Brainard noted, another reason the Fed should not pull back too soon. “Remaining steady in our outcomes-based approach during the transitory reopening surge will help ensure the economic momentum that will be needed,” to make sure inflation hits and stays at the Fed’s target, and people have as much time as possible to restart their old jobs or find new ones, she said. The Fed is approaching a critical few months as it tries to read an economy progressing through the unparalleled moment of restarting after a pandemic. What are difficult judgments in normal times — assessing the path of inflation or assessing what employment metrics are most meaningful — have become even more complex in an environment where consumption and work patterns have been upended, and may have been changed permanently by the historic health crisis. How those questions are resolved will determine when the Fed begins to reduce its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, and then eventually raises interest rates from the current near zero level. The Fed appears to be edging towards the start of that discussion. A key bit of information will come on Friday when new employment data will show whether hiring picked up in May after a weaker-than-expected April. Another poor outcome won’t necessarily dim faith in the recovery, only emphasize how hard it is to restart a $20 trillion economy. Brainard has been among the stronger voices arguing to wait on any policy change to be sure the recovery won’t slip, but herself made a revision in her language on Tuesday. While saying policy should remain steady, she did not repeat her call for the Fed to be “patient” before making any changes, a word often used to push policy debates far down the road. The fact that prices are currently being driven higher by things like unexpected computer chip shortages and a rush by consumers to buy used cars is all the more reason to wait — as is the uncertainty over why people seem hesitant to take jobs. Some of that data “noise” will ease by the fall, Brainard said. While she said she would be “attentive” to signs of higher inflation, she cautioned also against “preemptive tightening” that could deprive people of jobs.
India’s COVID cases plummet after hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin use
On May 17, the New York Times reported that the coronavirus crisis was so severe in India, with about 23 million infections confirmed, that the country was accounting for more than half of the world’s daily COVID-19 cases. The same day, The Gateway Pundit posted a story suggesting that two drugs — both of which have drawn warnings from U.S. and global public health officials not to be used for COVID-19 — were having dramatic effects in India. The headline, widely shared on Facebook, read: “Elites Worried: COVID Cases in India Plummet After Government Promotes Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine Use.” Daily COVID-19 cases in India decreased in the days before May 17 — but only after a nearly vertical rise that started in April and peaked May 8. The Indian government has recommended limited use of the two drugs for COVID-19, but there is no evidence that their use led to the drop in cases. Neither drug is approved in the U.S. for COVID-19. And both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization recommend against using them to prevent or treat COVID-19 infection. The Gateway Pundit article links to another article that links to revised guidelines issued April 28 by India’s Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. The guidelines, for “home isolation of mild/asymptomatic COVID-19 cases,” recommends considering ivermectin as treatment for those patients, and says people in close contact with those patients should take hydroxychloroquine as a prevention “as per protocol and as prescribed by the treating medical officer.” Confirmed new COVID-19 cases in India declined in the days before the article was posted, based on a seven-day rolling average — but only after reaching a peak following a sharp increase that started in April. Many experts caution that the Indian government’s official tallies of confirmed cases likely vastly underestimate the actual infection figures because testing remains limited and the volume of cases has crippled the health care system in some areas. So the actual extent of the decline is not clear. Hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin are being widely used in India for COVID-19, according to news reports. But there is no evidence they led to the recent decline in confirmed cases, given the lack of clear scientific evidence that they are effective at all in prevention or treatment. The government’s new guidelines don’t give a rationale for the recommendations. They were issued several days after a research paper was published that said “results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials,” including some done in India, “report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin.” Doctors in India admitted to have prescribed the drug under compulsion, peer pressure or on patient’s demand, according to one news report . The health minister in Goa was quoted as saying ivermectin does not prevent a COVID-19 infection, but helps in reducing the severity of the disease. Hydroxychloroquine has been in use much longer. In June 2020, a task force of India’s health ministry recommended that frontline health care workers take it to prevent COVID-19 infection. According to the journal Nature, the task force cited three new studies conducted by government agencies, only one of which had been published, that the task force said showed it can prevent infection.
The Gateway Pundit claimed: “COVID cases in India plummet after government promotes ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine use.”
COVID-19 cases in India dropped in mid-May only after a nearly vertical spike in cases over the previous several weeks. The Indian government has given limited recommendations for using the two drugs in connection with mild COVID-19 cases.
Lockdowns Over, Stock Market Will Go Wild
THREE GREAT TRADES AND THEIR RATIONALE
As usual the Wall Street Pundits have got it wrong. Like mistaking reflation for inflation… Or my favorite MYTH they are trying to peddle: The FED will start the dreaded taper, no longer buying 150 billion a month in securities and will soon raise rates. That is NOT going to happen for at least 2 years in the future. Don’t bet against the FED. They have made it clear they will keep filling the punch bowl until everyone is working and all business is back.
Another silly worry is supply chain shortages causing inflation that will soon result in runaway inflation. As soon as production gears up the supply chain will fill up and prices will drop.
Do Not Mistake Reflation for Inflation
The TEMPORARY price increases you are seeing is reflation. Everyone shut down because of the Plague induced depression. The supply chain collapsed. Inventories were allowed to sell down. Business economists got it wrong. Love Trump or hate him you’ve got to give him credit. By throwing 10 billion dollars at the drug companies they did the impossible. They came up with and supplied 1 billion doses of working vaccines within a year. And stopped the pandemic dead in its tracks.
You need to understand Wall Street and Big corporations pulled in their horns figuring we would be in lockdown for years waiting for a working vaccine. Why would you maintain inventories or build inventories during a depression induced by a plague? Car companies canceled chip orders figuring people locked at home would not be buying cars. Restaurants shut down and canceled food and equipment orders. Hotels shut down rooms, closed the pools and shuttered in their restaurants and bars. The airlines and cruise industry sent workers home. Canceled flights and furrowed crews. Mothballed airplanes and cruise ships.
The shut downs affected everyone. Farmers paired down the flocks of chickens. No restaurants no steaks so cattle herds were also pared down. The entire economy sucked shut.
It is Amazing How STUPID THE STUPID MONEY REALLY IS
The suits never in their wildest dreams ever anticipated the economy roaring back to life so quickly. Now the scramble is on for supplies.
From Lumber to computer chips. To chicken wings and steaks. Even nails, gypsum board to build with, demand is soaring for everything in sight. It’s called a reflation.
In the scramble to get scarce supplies everyone is trying to meet the surprise demand and as to be expected prices are temporarily increasing.
It’s called a reflation… Do not make the mistake of confusing these temporary supply chain price increases with an inflation. In a reflation prices increase TEMPORARILY as everyone scrambles to fill up the supply pipeline. This is a TEMPORARY situation. Once restocking is over prices will come right back down again.
WHY? People are going back to work and manufacturing is restarting again. The saw mills will turn back on. Chips will be supplied in mass by the semiconductor manufacturers. Farmers will build back their flocks and herds.
As soon as everyone gears up and goes back to work the supply lines and warehouses will fill up and prices will come right back down again. A reflation is a temporary phenomenon, not the permanent price increases we seen in an inflation.
It’s pretty simple, you gear up production as you see demand returning… And that is exactly what is happening. Let me let you in on a little secret. As the captives are set free to travel, eat out, shop and party, the economy will soar to the moon. The biggest increases in economic activity and GDP in U.S. history. Corporate profits will increase to historic levels.
Stock Market to ZOOM and Make Instant Millionaires
Biggest Economic Growth Since the End of World War II Will Drive Corporate Profits to the Moon
END OF THE PANDEMIC
These 4 words END OF THE PANDEMIC have the power to give you the life of your dreams. IF you understand what they mean and have the wisdom and know how to use the power that knowledge of the future gives you and take advantage of the coming stock market boom.
Most people are sleeping and you can’t blame them, A global plague is a once in a hundred year event. During the great plagues of the past there were no vaccines. So there is no modern economic model for what’s about to happen.
What has caught the markets by surprise was the fact a plague that was expected to last years is over in less than 2 years. Nothing has ever been seen like this before, a 2 year plague, Two years from start to mass vaccinations that work… Incredible. Wall Street economic models do not know how to price this in.
PILES OF CASH TO INVEST
There is another part of this… STIMULATION means everyone has cash to burn. The U.S. savings rate is the highest ever. There are only so many pizzas, take away box dinners and exercise equipment you can buy when you are under lockdown. There is 7 trillion dollars cash in the hands of the banks, brokers and individuals that has not been deployed.
Remember Wall Streeters are pack animals. They have not arrived at a consensus yet. They still do not get it. They have not yet processed the fact that the biggest economic boom has started.
The money parked on the sidelines is burning a hole in their pockets. That will soon change. They are under enormous pressure to invest these funds. In individual trading accounts there is over 1.5 trillion in cash to be invested. Wall Street investment funds, retirement funds and hedge funds are sitting on an additional 3 trillion dollars. And private equities have 1.5 trillion to invest. And there is only one place to go. The stock market!
YOGA PANTS OUT, NEW DESIGNER JEANS IN
That means there is still time for you to get there first. Here is the secret. As the captives are set free people are going to go hog wild. Buying and spending money on everything in sight. Remember they got a pile of stimulus check cash. You can see they are flush with cash in the housing boom. Cars and pickup trucks are flying out of dealer showrooms. But it’s not just big ticket items. People are booking flights and vacations like never seen before. Memorial Day weekend was like the good old days. With people driving and flying again. Making reservations at expensive restaurants, going to the movies. Even the Indy 500 was back with full capacity crowds. They are shopping and buying clothing, for example getting all gussied up to go back to the office. No need to invest in designer jeans when you’re stuck home in drawstring yoga pants. By Fall with the kids back in school they will be going back to work.
Which means corporate profits are about to soar. The stock market has not begun to price in the explosive growth. Already U.S. GDP is over 6 %, numbers not seen in decades. Corporate profits are up 30, 40 even 50%. And stock markets have not even come close to valuing in the coming corporate bonanza.
If we project forward the economic growth and apply the increase in cooperate profits we see a BIG stock market rally going to the moon. If we take the average P/E ratio of the last ten years and apply the coming boom in corporate profits that gives us a projected NASDAQ 100 at 18,000. That calculates to a 4,000 point in the END OF THE PANDEMIC rally for the NASDAQ 100.
END OF THE PANDEMIC RALLY TRADES POTENTIAL PROFIT 500%
How to turn every: $30,000 into $150,000
$3,000 into $ 15,000
$1,000 into $ 2,000
NAS100 Mini: Trade a $30,000 account. Which tracks the NASDAQ100. Margin is around $20,000 per position. Add another position every 1,000 points higher. So the trade looks like this. First position around 13,700. Add another position at 14,700 and another at 15,700. And take profits at 16,700. Your average price will be 14,700. If you take profits at 16,700 you could make $120,000.
NAS100 Micro Mini: Trade a $3,000 account. Margin is around $2,000 per position. Add another position every 1,000 points higher. So the trade looks like this. First position around 13,700. Add another position at 14,700 and another at 15,700. And take profits at 16,700. Your average price will be 14,700. If you take profits at 16,700 you could make $12,000.
FNGU: Trade a $1,000 account and buy 30 shares of the FNGU that offers 3x leveraged exposure to an index of FANG companies (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, and Google [Alphabet Inc.]) and other companies that exhibit similar characteristics. It’s currently trading around $30 a share. For every upward move of 1,000 points of the NASDAQ 100 index you could make $7.00 per share. If we get lucky and the NASDAQ soars 4,000 points… You could DOUBLE your money. Not bad for a no brainier extremely low risk trade.
Now let’s say we only get half the move I expect and the NASDAQ only goes up 2,000 points. You still make $60,000 in the mini trade, $6,000 in the Micro Mini and $14.00 per share in the FNGU.
For grins let’s take my worst case scenario. The NASDAQ only goes up 1,000 points, a little over this year’s high in May. You still could make $20,000 in the Mini. $2,000 in the micro and $7.00 per share in the FANG
Now let’s take my best case scenario. We get the biggest stock market rally ever that I am sure in my opinion is a slam dunk. After all it is the Roaring Twenties again right after a pandemic. If you leverage the trades I gave you above as we see the rally I am predicting unfold. Well let me put it this way. It could be a multi- million dollar trade. As you know I have had these before. Could we be guessing lucky again??? Well you decide.
If you have any questions or need my help in these trades call Jim at: Toll Free 866-924-0607 Overseas Subscribers call 1-913-871-0701 or SKYPE Handle: jrounder39 AND WHILE YOU ARE AT IT ASK HIM TO TELL YOU THE SECRET OF HOW YOU CAN TRADE WITH A $3,000 MARGIN INSTEAD OF $20,000 ON THE NASDAQ 100 MINI.
I wish you all the best.
Nick
US posts lowest increase in COVID cases since March 2020
The U.S. has reported the lowest number of Covid-19 cases in more than a year, as the nation’s airports over Memorial Day weekend experienced the largest number of travelers since the pandemic began. The 11,976 new cases reported on May 29 were the lowest since March 23, 2020, when 11,238 new cases were reported, according to data from Johns Hopkins University. The seven-day average of 21,007 is the lowest since March 31 of last year, when it was 19,363. Friday also saw the TSA report the highest number of travelers since the pandemic began, with more than 1.9 million people taking to the skies for the long weekend. At the same point last year, the TSA counted just 327,000 passengers at its checkpoints. The World Health Organization officially declared Covid-19 a global pandemic on March 11, 2020. The U.S. reported 1,147 Covid cases that day. The pandemic would go on to infect more than 33 million people in the U.S. and kill nearly 600,000 people. Within a week of the WHO declaration, daily TSA travel numbers dropped from 1.7 million to 620,000. By March 25, the number was at 203,000. Since March 11, 2021, the daily number of fliers has remained above 1 million. More than 60% of U.S. adults have at least one dose of a Covid vaccine, while 40.5% of adults are fully vaccinated, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data. President Biden announced earlier this month that his administration is aiming to increase the number of adults with at least one dose to 70% by July 4. He also said he wants 160 million American adults fully vaccinated by the same date. “If we succeed in this effort,” Biden said during his announcement, “then Americans will have taken a serious step toward a return to normal.” The CDC recently said fully vaccinated people do not need to wear masks in most settings, though masks are still required on airplanes, buses, trains and public transportation. Cities across the country are lifting restrictions on indoor dining and gatherings as cases fall and vaccinations increase. White House chief medical advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci has repeatedly said that he wants to see daily case numbers drop below 10,000 before a broad relaxation of safety measures takes place.
British agents: Wuhan lab leak ‘feasible’ – report
The Vaccines Minister has insisted that the World Health Organization must be able to fully investigate the origins of the pandemic, following reports that British agents believe it is “feasible” that the coronavirus emerged after a laboratory leak. Speaking to Sky News, Nadhim Zahawi said it’s vital that the WHO is “allowed to conduct its investigation unencumbered” as it seeks to better understand how the initial outbreak began, adding that “we should leave no stone unturned”.There has been renewed interest in how the pandemic began this week, after President Joe Biden asked US intelligence agencies to re-investigate the origins and report back in 90 days. Facebook also said it will no longer ban posts claiming Covid-19 was man made. According to a Sunday Times report, Western intelligence – including Britain – at first considered there was only a “remote” chance that it had leaked from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where research is conducted into bat-derived coronaviruses. But there has since been a reassessment, and a lab escape is thought “feasible”, sources revealed. Yet, amid mounting tensions between China and the West, the WHO’s director of emergencies, Dr Mike Ryan, warned on Friday that efforts to better understand how the virus emerged are “being poisoned by politics”. “We would like for everyone out there to separate, if they can, the politics of this issue from the science,” he told a press conference.
10 serious COVID patients given Israeli drug, leave hospital in one day
The data showed a 40% decrease in lung inflammation from treatment – from 55% to 15%, as seen in chest X-rays * Rambam Health Care Campus doctor: ‘Results extremely impressive’
An Israeli biotechnology company has revealed a 100% success rate in the first 10 patients treated with its drug as part of an early-stage clinical trial at Rambam Health Care Campus in Haifa. The company, Bonus BioGroup, presented the preliminary findings of its Phase I/II trial to peers at the International Society for Cell & Gene Therapy conference in New Orleans last week and shared the results in a statement released to the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange. The Jerusalem Post reviewed the PowerPoint presented at the conference and the five-page letter sent to the exchange. The company’s CEO and director, Dr. Shai Meretzki, told the Post that the team is now working on publishing its results in a peer-reviewed journal. Bonus’ MesenCure, which consists of activated Mesenchymal Stromal Cells (MSCs) that are isolated from the adipose tissue of healthy donors, was found to reduce inflammation, promote the regeneration of the diseased lung tissue and alleviate respiratory and other symptoms in patients suffering from life-threatening respiratory distress brought on by COVID-19. “So far, the results of the treatment with the drug MesenCure are extremely impressive and an improvement over the results of other treatments,” said Dr. Shadi Hamoud, principal investigator in the clinical trial and deputy director of the Department of Internal Medicine E at Rambam. He said the results were so promising that the hospital was already examining use of the treatment for other indications. Bonus reported on 10 COVID-19 patients between the ages of 45 to 75, all with severe symptoms. Ninety percent of them also had comorbidities. The data showed a 40% decrease in lung inflammation from treatment – from 55% to 15%, as seen in chest X-rays. Additionally, patients showed significantly improved respiratory function, with blood oxygen saturation showing a 95% increase and lung functioning returning to almost entirely normal levels after only one month. Meretzki shared a laboratory image of a healthy lung, a sick lung and lung treated with MesenCure. “The treated lung looks almost identical to the normal, healthy lung – complete healing, complete prevention of damage to the lung,” Meretzki said. Most strikingly, patients were discharged from the hospital after a median duration of only one day following injection. And there were no adverse effects associated with MesenCure, the company reported. Meretzki said the trial followed patients for 30 days post administration of the treatment. All but one had survived. The patient who died did not pass away from COVID-19 but a comorbidity. Many COVID-19 patients die because of an increase in the production of inflammatory molecules called cytokine, rather than the virus itself, Meretzki explained. When the immune system secretes too many cytokines, a so-called “cytokine storm” can erupt. Such an excessive immune response ravages healthy lung tissue, leading to acute respiratory distress syndrome or failure, and eventually death. Bonus was founded in 2008. It has been working with MSCs for a decade from its Haifa headquarters, where it developed its core product, a tissue-engineered bone graft that is also based on MSCs. Meretzki said that MSCs are cells that are “found in every one of us; they are responsible for damage control and a variety of day-to-day activities.”
When the coronavirus outbreak started in early 2020, Bonus started investigating the potential of MSCs to possibly reduce the cytokine storm in COVID-19 patients. The Phase II trial is slated to continue at Rambam and include another 50 patients. However, because of the low-level of infection in Israel, Bonus has applied for approval to carry out the trial in Europe as well, Meretzki said. He told the Post that the Phase II trial should be completed quickly once the remaining patients are fully enrolled. There are still a high number of serious COVID cases worldwide. As of May 28, Meretzki shared, there were 93,956 serious cases out of 14,603,155 total cases – about 0.6%.