Equities on Wall Street finished Wednesday’s session in the red after negative data reports pushed investor sentiment lower. The ADP National Employment Report showed that the number of jobs in the United States private sector grew at a slower pace in February than analysts anticipated, while the services sector activity in the same month declined compared to January levels. Meanwhile, traders await the agreement between the Republicans and Democrats on the coronavirus rescue package. The talks are expected to continue later on Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer noted. The Dow Jones decreased by 0.38% or more than 100 index points at the closing bell with Salesforce falling more than 3%, while the S&P 500 surrendered 1.30% concurrently as Etsy plummeted over 12%. The Nasdaq 100 dipped 2.88% to end the session with losses dragged down by Moderna’s drop of nearly 11%. The euro stood flat against the dollar, changing hands for 1.20642 at 4:00 am ET.
Biden, Dems OK Tighter Income Limits for COVID-19 Relief
https://youtu.be/ZVqszSsuVgo
President Joe Biden and Democrats agreed Wednesday to tighten the upper income limits at which people could qualify for stimulus checks, a Democratic official said, a major concession to moderates as party leaders prepared to move their $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief bill through the Senate. The COVID-19 relief measure Senate Democrats planned to unveil will also retain the $400 weekly emergency jobless benefits that were included in a House-approved version of the legislation, the official said. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe internal Democratic conversations.
The changes came with Republicans, who may unanimously oppose the legislation, lashing the bill as an overpriced Democratic wish list that lavishes help on many who don’t really need it.
In a 50-50 Senate where Democrats must remain united, party moderates have been pushing to refocus the bill’s spending more closely on those must hurt by the pandemic and resulting economic slowdown. As part of Democrats’ legislative thrust on what is Biden’s top initial legislative priority, individuals earning up to $75,000 — and couples up to $150,000 — would get $1,400 checks per person. The version the House approved last Saturday would gradually phase down those amounts and reach zero for individuals making $100,000 and couples earning $200,000.
But under Wednesday’s agreement, those checks would end for individuals making $80,000 and couples earning $160,000, the official said.
But Biden and party leaders stood firm and will retain the $400 weekly emergency jobless benefits, which are paid on top of regular state payments. Moderates have wanted to trim those payments to $300 per week, with some saying the higher amount could discourage people from returning to their jobs. On Tuesday, Biden took to Twitter to signal he wouldn’t budge from his demand that lawmakers add a fresh $1,400 payment to the $600 that millions of individuals received from a December relief measure. That new installment comprises nearly a quarter of the overall bill’s cost. “The fact is that $600 is not enough. The Senate needs to pass the American Rescue Plan and finish the job of delivering $2,000 in direct relief,” Biden wrote in one of his infrequent uses of a medium his predecessor, Donald Trump, at times used over 100 times daily. The huge relief package is a too-big-to-fail moment for the fledging president, who would be politically staggered if Congress — controlled narrowly by Democrats but controlled nonetheless — failed to deliver. Conquering the virusthat’s killed half a million Americans and flung the economy and countless lives into tailspins is Biden’s top initial priority. So far, Republicans are following the template they set during Barack Obama’s presidency. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said he hoped GOP senators would oppose the bill unanimously, as their House counterparts did early Saturday when that chamber approved its version of the measure. “The new administration made a conscious effort to jam us,” McConnell told reporters. “We’ll be fighting this in every way that we can.”
Democrats are using special rules that will let them avoid GOP filibusters that would require them to garner an impossible 60 votes to approve the legislation.
The Senate bill was expected to largely mirror the House-approved package, with the most glaring divergence the Senate’s dropping of language boosting the federal minimum wage to $15 hourly.President-elect Joe Biden is hoping to jump-start the economy with his sweeping $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan. Schumer said Senate debate would commence as soon as Wednesday and predicted, “We’ll have the votes we need to pass the bill.” Democrats want to send a final package to Biden by March 14, when an earlier round of emergency jobless benefits expires. The bill has hundreds of billions of dollars for schools and colleges, COVID-19 vaccines and testing, mass transit systems, renters and small businesses. It also has money for child care, tax breaks for families with children and assistance for states willing to expand Medicaid coverage for low-income residents. It was clear there were still moving parts. Senate Democrats were removing $1.5 million for a bridge between New York state and Canada and around $140 million for a rapid transit project south of San Francisco after Republicans cast both as pet projects for Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D—Calif. Aides to both Democratic leaders said the projects weren’t new and had been supported by the Trump administration. Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, said he wants the bill’s $350 billion for state and local governments to specify minimum amounts for municipal governments and has called for $50 billion to improve broadband coverage.
Despite every Democrats’ huge leverage because all their votes are needed, none have so far threatened to sink the legislation if they don’t get their way. All are aware of how that would rattle Biden’s presidency and Democrats’ ability to be productive during this Congress.
“We want to get the biggest, strongest bill that can pass, and that’s what we’re going to do,” Schumer said. There were indications loose ends were falling into place. In one sign, 11 Democratic senators wrote Biden urging him to use a huge, upcoming infrastructure bill to create regularly paid relief and jobless benefits that would be automatically triggered by economic conditions. Some progressives had wanted those payments included in the COVID-19 bill. Democrats’ push to include it in later legislation suggested an effort to satisfy progressives while avoiding jeopardizing the current package. Progressives, though, were still smarting over the virtual certainty that the Senate bill will lack the minimum wage boost, up from $7.25 hourly locked in since 2009. The chamber’s nonpartisan parliamentarian said last week that including that increase violated Senate budget rules. Opposition by moderates including Manchin and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, D-Ariz., has left Democrats without the votes needed to salvage it.
‘When will it end?’: How a changing virus is reshaping scientists’ views on COVID-19
CHICAGO (Reuters) – Chris Murray, a University of Washington disease expert whose projections on COVID-19 infections and deaths are closely followed worldwide, is changing his assumptions about the course of the pandemic. Murray had until recently been hopeful that the discovery of several effective vaccines could help countries achieve herd immunity, or nearly eliminate transmission through a combination of inoculation and previous infection. But in the last month, data from a vaccine trial in South Africa showed not only that a rapidly-spreading coronavirus variant could dampen the effect of the vaccine, it could also evade natural immunity in people who had been previously infected.
“I couldn’t sleep” after seeing the data, Murray, director of the Seattle-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, told Reuters. “When will it end?” he asked himself, referring to the pandemic. He is currently updating his model to account for variants’ ability to escape natural immunity and expects to provide new projections as early as this week.
A new consensus is emerging among scientists, according to Reuters interviews with 18 specialists who closely track the pandemic or are working to curb its impact. Many described how the breakthrough late last year of two vaccines with around 95% efficacy against COVID-19 had initially sparked hope that the virus could be largely contained, similar to the way measles has been. But, they say, data in recent weeks on new variants from South Africa and Brazil has undercut that optimism. They now believe that SARS-CoV-2 will not only remain with us as an endemic virus, continuing to circulate in communities, but will likely cause a significant burden of illness and death for years to come. As a result, the scientists said, people could expect to continue to take measures such as routine mask-wearing and avoiding crowded places during COVID-19 surges, especially for people at high risk. Even after vaccination, “I still would want to wear a mask if there was a variant out there,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, chief medical advisor to U.S. President Joe Biden, said in an interview. “All you need is one little flick of a variant (sparking) another surge, and there goes your prediction” about when life gets back to normal. Some scientists, including Murray, acknowledge that the outlook could improve. The new vaccines, which have been developed at record speed, still appear to prevent hospitalizations and death even when new variants are the cause of infection. Many vaccine developers are working on booster shots and new inoculations that could preserve a high level of efficacy against the variants. And, scientists say there is still much to be learned about the immune system’s ability to combat the virus. Already, COVID-19 infection rates have declined in many countries since the start of 2021, with some dramatic reductions in severe illness and hospitalizations among the first groups of people to be vaccinated.
International air traffic drops 85.6% in January – IATA
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that passenger traffic fell in January 2021, both compared to pre-COVID levels (January 2019) and compared to the immediate month prior (December 2020).
Because comparisons between 2021 and 2020 monthly results are distorted by the extraordinary impact of COVID-19, unless otherwise noted all comparisons are to January 2019 which followed a normal demand pattern.
- Total demand in January 2021 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was down 72.0% compared to January 2019. That was worse than the 69.7% year-over-year decline recorded in December 2020.
- Total domestic demand was down 47.4% versus pre-crisis (January 2019) levels. In December it was down 42.9% on the previous year. This weakening is largely driven by stricter domestic travel controls in China over the Lunar New Year holiday period.
- International passenger demand in January was 85.6% below January 2019, a further drop compared to the 85.3% year-to-year decline recorded in December.
“2021 is starting off worse than 2020 ended and that is saying a lot. Even as vaccination programs gather pace, new COVID variants are leading governments to increase travel restrictions. The uncertainty around how long these restrictions will last also has an impact on future travel. Forward bookings in February this year for the Northern Hemisphere summer travel season were 78% below levels in February 2019,” said Alexandre de Juniac, IATA’s Director General and CEO.
International Passenger Markets
- Asia-Pacific airlines’ January traffic plummeted 94.6% compared to the 2019 period, virtually unchanged from the 94.4% decline registered for December 2020 compared to a year ago. The region continued to suffer from the steepest traffic declines for a seventh consecutive month. Capacity dropped 86.5% and load factor sank 49.4 percentage points to 32.6%, by far the lowest among regions.
- European carriers had an 83.2% decline in traffic in January versus January 2019, worsened from an 82.6% decline in December compared to the same month in 2019. Capacity sank 73.6% and load factor fell by 29.2 percentage points to 51.4%.
- Middle Eastern airlines saw demand plunge 82.3% in January compared to January 2019, which was broadly unchanged from an 82.6% demand drop in December versus a year ago. Capacity fell 67.6%, and load factor declined 33.9 percentage points to 40.8%.
- North American carriers’ January traffic fell 79.0% compared to the 2019 period, up slightly from a 79.5% decline in December year to year. Capacity sagged 60.5%, and load factor dropped 37.8 percentage points to 42.9%.
- Latin American airlines experienced a 78.5% demand drop in January, compared to the same month in 2019, worsened from a 76.2% decline in December year-to-year. January capacity was 67.9% down compared to January 2019 and load factor dropped 27.2 percentage points to 55.3%, highest among the regions for a fourth consecutive month.
Senate likely to pass virus bill on Friday or Saturday – Hoyer
The House vote on President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief bill will be held on Friday, the majority leader announced. Biden on Tuesday indicated the congressional vote on the legislation would be close, speaking after GOP Senator Susan Collins said she doesn’t expect a single Republican vote in favor of it. Budget Committee Chair Bernie Sanders said the Senate’s parliamentarian could rule as soon as Wednesday on whether a proposed minimum-wage hike can be included in the fast-track bill. While the package that the House is expected to vote on in coming days includes the president’s plan to phase in a $15-per-hour minimum wage, two moderate Democratic senators currently say they oppose that component of the legislation. Senate leaders meantime previewed what’s next. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he expects Biden’s second, longer-term economic package “very soon” after the pandemic-aid bill. Minority Leader Mitch McConnell warned that he believes Democrats will include tax hikes in that next bill, predicting the majority party would push for a corporate tax rate in excess of Biden’s 28% proposal.
U.S. factory activity scales three-year high, price pressures building
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. manufacturing activity increased to a three-year high in February amid a surge in new orders, but factories continued to face higher costs for raw materials and other inputs amid labor shortages at suppliers as the pandemic drags on. The acceleration reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday was despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has hurt production at automobile plants. Other data showed construction spending surged to a record high in January, boosted by strong private and public outlays.The reports were the latest indications of strong economic performance early in the first quarter, thanks to nearly $900 billion in additional COVID-19 relief money from the government and a drop in new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations. “We are looking at an economy that is picking up steam,” said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economics in Holland, Pennsylvania. “But we are not talking high inflation, just levels that reflect a solidly growing economy.”The ISM said its index of national factory activity rebounded to a reading of 60.8 last month from 58.7 in January. That was the highest level since February 2018.A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index edging up to 58.8 in February. Manufacturing is being driven by strong demand for goods like electronics and furniture, as 23.2% of the labor force works from home because of the virus. Demand could, however, shift back to services in the summer as more Americans get vaccinated, and slow manufacturing activity from current levels. But the year-long pandemic has gummed up the supply chain, boosting production costs for manufacturers. The survey’s measure of prices paid by manufacturers jumped to a reading of 86.0, the highest since July 2008, from 82.1 in January. This follows data last month showing a surge in consumers’ near-term inflation expectations, and fits in with views that inflation will accelerate in the months ahead. Economists are, however, split on whether the anticipated spike in price pressures will be transitory or not. U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with investors betting that extremely accommodative monetary and fiscal policy will boost inflation. The Federal Reserve is pumping cash into the economy through bond purchases, while Congress is considering President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic rescue plan. There is also ample capacity in the labor market, with at least 19 million people on unemployment benefits. But Americans grounded at home by COVID-19 have accumulated excess savings, which can provide a powerful tailwind to spending. A separate report from the Commerce Department on Monday showed construction spending increased 1.7% to $1.521 trillion in January, the highest level since the government started tracking the series in 2002, after rising 1.1% in December. Reports last month showed solid January consumer spending, manufacturing output, building permits and home sales. After Monday’s data, the Atlanta Fed boosted its first-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 10% annualized rate from an 8.8% pace. The economy grew at a 4.1% rate in the fourth quarter. The ISM reported that suppliers continued to “struggle to deliver,” because of transportation challenges and a shortage of labor. It said it did not expect these constraints to ease “until employment levels and factory operations can return to normal across the entire supply chain.” The ISM’s measure of supplier deliveries has increased every month since last August. Electrical equipment, appliances and components producers reported “wide-scale” shortages and described the situation as “out of control.” Manufacturers of chemical products said supply chains were “depleted,” and expected the recent deep freeze in the Gulf Coast to worsen the shortages problem.Food, beverage and tobacco products manufacturers said they had “experienced a higher rate of delinquent shipments from our ingredient suppliers in the last month.” They anticipated a surge in orders as restaurants reopen. Makers of wood products said “prices are rising so rapidly that many are wondering if the situation is sustainable.” Sixteen industries including electrical equipment, appliances and components, primary metals and paper, as well as computer and electronic products reported growth last month. But printing and related support activities as well as petroleum and coal products industries contracted. “Manufacturing is doing well but it will not be smooth sailing over the next few months because of supply-chain disruptions, slow delivery times and a global shortage of semiconductors,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics in West Chester, Pennsylvania.
The ISM’s forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to a reading of 64.8 last month from 61.1 in January. Factories also received more export orders and order backlogs swelled. A measure of customer inventories fell to the lowest level since December 2009, while stocks at manufacturers remained lean, which bodes well for future production.
As a result, factories stepped up hiring last month. The survey’s manufacturing employment gauge rose to 54.4, the highest reading since March 2019, from 52.6 in January. That offers cautious optimism that employment growth picked up last month after nonfarm payrolls increased by only 49,000 jobs in January. The economy has recovered 12.3 million of the 22.2 million jobs lost during the pandemic.
Pent-up demand driving global factory revival
LONDON/TOKYO (Reuters) – Demand for manufactured goods drove extended growth in factories across Europe and Asia in February, but a slowdown in China underscored the challenges countries face as they seek a sustainable recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic blow. Restrictions imposed around the world to try and quell the spread of the coronavirus have shuttered vast swathes of the services industry, meaning it has fallen to manufacturers to support economies. But vaccine rollouts and a pick-up in demand provided optimism for businesses that have grappled for months with a cash-flow crunch and falling profits. IHS Markit’s final Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) jumped to a three-year high of 57.9 in February from January’s 54.8, beating the initial 57.7 “flash” estimate for one of the highest readings in the survey’s 20-year history. [EUR/PMIM] German factory activity also reached a three-year peak last month and in France the pace of growth accelerated. Italy and Spain also saw a pick-up. However, lockdown measures disrupted supply chains and factories struggled to obtain raw materials, leading to a big increase in delivery times. “International shipping delays and strong global demand for raw materials have slowed manufacturers worldwide,” said Samuel …
Europe opens higher on US stimulus, more vaccines
European equities started the session on Monday in the green as the United States moved towards advancing more fiscal stimulus and Johnson & Johnson’s single-shot coronavirus vaccine was approved for emergency use by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Nick Bite: You really really DO NOT WANT THIS MONKEY VACCINE Last week, the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives voted 219 to 212 to approve a $1.9 trillion relief package to help support the US economy amid the coronavirus crisis. Meanwhile, J&J’s COVID-19 jab will be the third vaccine in circulation in the US following the FDA’s approval. The DAX jumped 1.28% in the first minutes of trading as Adidas led the gains rising over 25. Meanwhile, the CAC 40 climbed 1.20% with Airbus as the top performer. The FTSE 100 opened 0.94% in the green in London; Taylor Wimpey jumped over 2%.
U.S. authorizes J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine, making it third available
The Food and Drug Administration on Saturday granted emergency authorization to Johnson & Johnson’s COVID-19 vaccine, making it the third vaccine to become available to Americans during the pandemic and the first to only require one dose. The vaccine is authorized to be given to adults who are at least 18 years old. J&J’s COVID-19 vaccine is significantly differs significantly from the vaccines developed by BioNTech SE /Pfizer Inc. and Moderna Inc. both of which received emergency use authorization from the FDA in December. An emergency use authorization is a type of regulatory approval that allows companies and regulators to more quickly bring medical products to market during the pandemic. It is not as rigorous as a full FDA approval.
The J&J vaccine requires one dose, not two, is adenovirus-based and doesn’t use mRNA-based technology, can be stored in normal refrigeration temperatures, and was much less efficacious (50% in populations over 60 years old) in clinical trials than both of the mRNA-based vaccines, which had efficacy rates of about 95% in their Phase 3 clinical trials.
The J&J vaccine had an overall efficacy rate of about 66%, with a slightly higher rate of protection in the U.S. at 72%, according to a FDA analysis of Johnson & Johnson’s clinical-trial data. The efficacy rate increased to about 85% when it came to preventing severe or critical disease among participants in the U.S. “This pandemic is very different from two months ago when other vaccine developers were running their trials and accruing cases. It’s a much more complex milieu at the moment,” Mathai Mammen, global head of research and development for J&J’s pharmaceuticals business, said in January, according to a FactSet transcript of an investor call. “Everywhere you look there are variants and running a study at this time puts significant pressure on the vaccine.” The company’s late-stage study was conducted in part in South Africa, which is where the B.1.351 variant was first identified, and the vaccine was found to be about 64% efficacious there, which nearly all of the COVID-19 cases were found to be caused by that strain of the virus. Wall Street analysts largely caution against direct comparisons of the vaccines, in part due to differences in trial design and timeline, especially as new variants like B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 have gained traction in recent months, but they generally view J&J’s vaccine as a key ingredient in reducing the impact of the virus in the U.S. The J&J vaccine, which is referred to as Ad26.COV2.S, “is an effective single-dose vaccine with advantages in distribution that will likely contribute to substantially lowering the COVID-19 curve once available,” SVP Leerink analysts told investors on Feb. 24. “Though it remains premature to proclaim the beginning of the end for the pandemic, these data, along with EUA’s and availability for several vaccine candidates, signal to us that we are perhaps at ‘the end of the beginning.’” The topic of spreading variants in the U.S. was one that came up several times during an advisory committee meeting on Friday. The committee, which convened Friday as part of the traditional FDA regulatory process, voted 22-0 that the vaccine’s benefits outweigh the risks, therefore recommending that the FDA authorize the vaccine. About 22 million people in the U.S. have received both doses of either the BioNTech/Pfizer or Moderna vaccines since December, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That’s about 7% of the total U.S. population. The U.S. has already agreed to purchase 100 million doses of J&J’s vaccine in the first half of this year, though the first batch of doses that will be delivered with only be around 20 million, by the end of March, a J&J executive told lawmakers on Feb. 23.
BioNTech CEO: Pandemic could be under control by summer
Below is a 3 mouth old interview. Most of the issues have been resolve. the mRNA vaccine is a modern miracle and a great scientific breakthrough
https://youtu.be/AM3gSgvN2Fw
Ugur Shahin, head of BioNTech, which is developing a coronavirus vaccine with Pfizer, predicted when the pandemic could be brought under control. He told about this in an interview with Fox TV channel.
According to Shahin, it will be possible to take control of the pandemic by the end of summer 2021. The widespread distribution of the coronavirus vaccine will be critical in this process.
The specialist expressed the opinion that vaccination can seriously change the situation as early as April next year. “I hope we can introduce the vaccine very quickly. This will significantly reduce the number of hospitalizations, ” he added. However, to see results, at least 30 per cent of Americans will need to be vaccinated,
Shahin said.Pfizer and BioNTech are confident they can provide 1.3 billion doses of vaccine in 2021, the specialist said. At the same time, the possibility of delivering an even larger quantity of the drug over the next year is being evaluated. Earlier, Ugur Shahin said that the pandemic would subside by the beginning of next winter. The victory over the spread of SARS-CoV-2 will be possible thanks to the widespread use of the vaccine, which will halve the number of cases of transmission of the pathogen.