Officials at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued fresh warnings as the COVID-19 mutation first reported in England makes its rounds in the U.S. while new cases continue to climb to record highs. Published in an online report, CDC research suggests that the U.K. COVID-19 variant, formally known as SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7, could potentially lead to a serious increase in new infections due to its increased transmissibility, meaning it is more contagious. Using national genomic surveillance data, which reports instances of the new COVID-19 variant’s appearance, the CDC says transmission can be contained, but will also depend on continued adherence to public health measures like face masks, social distancing and quarantine upon exposure. “Multiple lines of evidence indicate that B.1.1.7 is more efficiently transmitted than are other SARS-CoV-2 variants,” the report reads. It went as far as to warn that the more contagious strain could become more widespread. “The modeled trajectory of this variant in the U.S. exhibits rapid growth in early 2021, becoming the predominant variant in March.” The structural mutations occur at the binding receptors of the COVID-19 spike protein, or the structures on the outside of the cell responsible for attaching to host cells and enabling infection. Researchers note that earlier in the pandemic, other variants of COVID-19, namely the D614G mutation, also increased receptor binding, which resulted in this variant becoming the dominant strain in multiple geographic areas. The broad consensus among public health experts is that the newly approved COVID-19 vaccines will still be effective against new strains like B.1.1.7. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), however, issue a warning that the U.K. variant may lead to false negative results on select reverse transcription–polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests, which could lead to upticks in transmission. Given this, the CDC notes that increased vaccination efforts are the best way to slow the spread of the new COVID-19 variant. Using a statistical model to predict the rates of transmission the U.K. COVID-19 strain could inflict, researchers noted vaccination was the most effective way to reduce spread. “The effect of vaccination on reducing transmission in the near term was greatest in the scenario in which transmission was already decreasing,” scientists wrote. “Early efforts that can limit the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant, such as universal and increased compliance with public health mitigation strategies, will allow more time for ongoing vaccination to achieve higher population-level immunity.” While there is no known difference in health outcomes between the distinct COVID-19 variants, Jay Butler, the deputy director for infectious diseases at the CDC, urges Americans to remain cautious when in public. “I want to stress that we are deeply concerned that this strain is more transmissible and can accelerate outbreaks in the U.S. in the coming weeks,” Butler reportedly said. “We’re sounding the alarm and urging people to realize the pandemic is not over and in no way is it time to throw in the towel.” Officials still do not know exactly how far the COVID-19 variant has transmitted across the U.S. About 76 confirmed cases of B.1.1.7 have been reported across 10 U.S. states, but the country is still posting record-high numbers of new infections. As of Jan. 15, the CDC recorded 227,746 new COVID-19 cases and more than 3,900 new fatalities.
Biden to unveil plan to pump $1.9 trillion into pandemic-hit economy
https://youtu.be/x37clk6eDi0
WILMINGTON — President-elect Joe Biden will unveil a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal on Thursday designed to jump-start the economy and speed up the U.S. response to the coronavirus pandemic, officials said. Biden campaigned last year on a promise to take the pandemic more seriously than President Donald Trump, and the package aims to put that pledge into action with an influx of resources for the coronavirus response and economic recovery. President Donald Trump, and the package aims to put that pledge into action with an influx of resources for the coronavirus response and economic recovery. Exploding Bitcoin should be a part of investors’ portfolios The package includes $415 billion to bolster the response to the virus and the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, some $1 trillion in direct relief to households, and roughly $440 billion for small businesses and communities particularly hard hit by the pandemic, incoming Biden administration officials told reporters on a conference call.
Stimulus payment checks would be issued for $1,400 – topping up the $600 checks issued under the last congressional stimulus legislation. Supplemental unemployment insurance would also increase to $400 a week from $300 a week now and would be extended to September, the officials said.
Biden will make the announcement in a 7:15 p.m. eastern prime time address on Thursday, underscoring the importance his team places on the issue. Biden’s plan is meant to kick off his time in office with a large bill that sets his short-term agenda into motion quickly: helping the economy and getting a handle on a virus that has killed more than 385,000 people in the United States as of Thursday. It also provides a sharp contrast with Trump, who spent the last months of his administration seeking to undermine Biden’s election victory rather than focusing on additional coronavirus relief. Trump, who leaves office on Wednesday, did support $2,000 payments to Americans, however. Many Republicans in Congress balked at the price tag for such payments, and Biden will face similar hurdles with his proposals, though he will be helped by the fact that his fellow Democrats will control both the House and the Senate. The incoming president will seek to pass the legislation even as his predecessor faces an impeachment trial. The Democratic-led House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump on Wednesday, making him the first president in U.S. history to be impeached twice. Ten of his fellow Republicans joined Democrats to charge him with inciting an insurrection in last week’s deadly rampage at the Capitol. The impeachment proceedings threaten to hang over the beginning of Biden’s term, and Biden has encouraged lawmakers to handle the trial while also moving forward with his agenda. The officials said Biden’s plan on Thursday will be a rescue package that will be followed up with another recovery package in the coming weeks. “We’re at a very precarious moment for our economy,” one of the officials said. The plan would extend moratoriums on foreclosures and evictions until September and include funding for rental and utility assistance. The president-elect will also call on Congress to increase the minimum wage to $15 an hour, and the package will include assistance to fight hunger. The coronavirus relief-related funds will go toward a national vaccine program, testing, investments for workers to do vaccine outreach and contact tracing, and money for states. The Democratic president-elect said last week the stimulus package would be “in the trillions of dollars” and argued that more spending early on would reduce the long-term economic damage from the shutdowns spurred by the pandemic. He also said there would be “billions of dollars” to speed up vaccine distribution, along with money to help reopen schools and for state and local governments to avoid laying off teachers, police officers and health workers. Pandemic-related shutdowns and restrictions have cost millions of U.S. jobs.
Biden preps coronavirus ‘rescue’ plan, with ‘recovery’ bill to follow
President-elect Joe Biden has settled on a two-step strategy for moving his policy agenda through Congress this year, beginning with a COVID-19 rescue package he’ll unveil Thursday night and continuing later this year with what’s likely to be a more partisan economic recovery measure. Biden is hoping to gain Republican support for what Democrats are billing their rescue plan, which is aimed at addressing the immediate effects of the pandemic and its associated economic impacts. The plan has components to address vaccine distribution, aid to households and assistance to communities, according to several people familiar with the plan who were not authorized to speak publicly. Biden’s transition team announced Wednesday that Biden will deliver remarks from Wilmington, Del., at 7:15 p.m. Thursday to outline his rescue package “to fund vaccinations and provide immediate, direct relief to working families and communities bearing the brunt of this crisis and call on both parties in Congress to move his proposals quickly.”\ The health care portion of the package includes funding for distribution of the vaccines as well as hiring additional health care workers to administer the vaccines and an education campaign to persuade people that they are safe and effective. There would also be more money for COVID-19 testing, according to sources.
The household aid portion of the plan includes the added $1,400 tax rebate checks Biden has promised — on top of $600 payments enacted late last year — as well as supercharged unemployment insurance benefits, food assistance, aid to renters, child care subsidies and an extended eviction moratorium.
Money for small businesses, state and local governments, public transit agencies, local school systems and more are contained in the aid to communities component of the plan. It wasn’t immediately clear what the price tag would be, but Biden last week said it could be in the “trillions of dollars.” Ahead of the November elections, Democrats in the House and Senate discussed using the budget reconciliation process twice this year in order to pass legislation with filibuster-proof majorities if Democrats won control of Congress and the White House. That would require both chambers to first adopt a fiscal 2021 budget resolution containing reconciliation instructions early in the year and to follow it up with a fiscal 2022 budget resolution, with additional reconciliation directives, later in the year.
Reconciliation allows tax- and budget-related legislation to pass with a simple majority in the Senate rather than the usual 60 votes, making it possible to pass legislation without the support of the minority PARTY.
Instead, Biden will seek to win Republican backing to pass the rescue plan without the use of reconciliation. That would require 60 votes in the 50-50 Senate. Sources said he will make an initial “good faith effort” to win bipartisan support for the package, which has been written with that goal in mind. Coming so soon on the heels of last month’s $900 billion relief package, it could be difficult to garner support from enough Senate Republicans to get over the 60-vote threshold. Some Democrats are skeptical that Republicans will cooperate, and the option of using reconciliation on the first package is being kept in reserve. The downside of using reconciliation for the rescue plan is that it would take longer, be more complicated and limiting. Democrats in the House and Senate would have to find common ground on a fiscal 2021 budget resolution, a challenge given different priorities among competing factions of liberals and moderates in both chambers. Moreover, reconciliation in the Senate is constrained by the Byrd rule, a law which prevent extraneous items from being included reconciliation including those that don’t have a deficit impact or increase long-term deficits. There are also procedural problems and potential Byrd rule flaws with including discretionary spending in reconciliation bills. Much of the spending that is envisioned in Biden’s plan, such as vaccine distribution, rental housing aid and relief for states and localities, is discretionary, which is under the purview of the Appropriations committees. Democratic leaders have been largely mum on the prospect of using two rounds of reconciliation since Democrats gained control of the Senate after the Jan. 5 Georgia runoffs. Biden’s second step — a longer-term recovery package — would be taken up later in the year. Sources said Democrats envision using reconciliation to pass that broader economic package that would include infrastructure development, clean energy subsidies and other measures aimed at job creation, possibly paired with tax increases on corporations and wealthier households. Infrastructure spending also faces some potential Byrd rule issues, however, including the fact that highway and aviation trust fund authorizations do not “score” as direct spending that would be allowed under reconciliation and could also increase long-term deficits.
Treasuries sell off as Joe Biden eyes $2 trillion stimulus package, while US stocks set to edge higher
- Treasury prices fell and yields rose after a CNN report said Joe Biden could launch a stimulus package worth $US2 trillion, causing investors to brace for more bond issuance and higher inflation.
- US stocks were set for a mixed start as markets awaited the details of Biden’s plan and mulled over the spread of coronavirus.
- Chinese stocks tumbled as coronavirus cases rose, but oil prices climbed as traders looked towards a vaccine-driven economic recovery.
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US Treasury prices slipped on Thursday after a CNN report said President-elect Joe Biden was mulling a $US2 trillion stimulus bill, while stocks were set to open slightly higher on Wall Street. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note – which moves inversely to its price – rose 1.2 basis points to 1.1%. Yields were up on Treasuries from the 3-year note to the 30-year bond, as investors bet more stimulus would lead to more issuance of government debt and higher inflation. The S&P 500 was set to open slightly higher, with futures up 0.22%. Dow Jones futures were 0.31% higher but Nasdaq futures were up just 0.02%. The second impeachment of US President Donald Trump did little to market sentiment, with investors instead focused on stimulus and the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday the S&P 500 closed 0.23% higher, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq advanced 0.43%. The Dow Jones closed 0.03% lower, as cyclical stocks underperformed growth companies. Biden is expected to lay out his plans later in the day in Wilmington, Delaware. His advisors have told allies the total package could come to around $US2 trillion, two people briefed on the plans told CNN. David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, said: “Essentially, the markets have been in a holding pattern for the past three days as dealers have been waiting to hear from Mr Biden. “To an extent, a large amount of positive news has been factored into stocks and commodities.” Bond yields have marched higher, while prices have fallen in recent weeks. Investors expect the government to issue another wave of bonds to fund extra stimulus, pushing up supply. Markets are also betting stimulus will help growth and inflation. That pushes down bond prices and pushes up yields as low-yielding bonds look less attractive, especially compared to stocks.
“With President-elect Biden shooting for the moon on stimulus, and China data suggesting its economic juggernaut remains on track, financial markets should enter the last part of the week on a positive frame of mind,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at currency broker Oanda.
“Any rise in US yields and the US dollar should not be enough to derail further rallies in equity markets and support energy.”
Moderna CEO says ‘we are going to have to live with coronavirus forever’
- Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel spoke at a panel discussion at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference on Wednesday
- He said the coronavirus is not going to disappear and the general public is going to have to live with it ‘forever’
- Public health experts have stated that COVID-19 will likely become an endemic disease, meaning always present in the population but circulating at low rates
- Bancel added that he believes he firm’s vaccine is protective against the new variants from the UK, South Africa and Brazil
- Researchers from Moderna are currently studying whether or not a third booster shot will help extend immunity
Moderna Inc’s CEO says the novel coronavirus will never disappear and will likely be around ‘forever.’ During a panel discussion at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference on Wednesday, Stéphane Bancel echoed comments from public health experts who say COVID-19 is likely going to become an endemic disease, meaning it will always present in the population but circulating at low rates.
‘SARS-CoV-2 is not going away, .’ We are going to live with this virus, we think, forever.’ Additionally, he said he believes the firm’s coronavirus vaccine will be effective against infection by any of the new variants from the UK, South Africa or Brazil. Moderna’s vaccine was developed in partnership with the National Institutes of Health. It uses part of the pathogen’s genetic code called messenger RNA, or mRNA, to get the body to recognize the coronavirus and attack it if a person becomes infected. The candidate, called mRNA-1273, works by tricking the body into producing some of the viral proteins, which the immune system then recognizes and builds a defensive response against. When given in two doses four weeks apart, the vaccine was found to be 94.1 percent effect at preventing COVID-19 and 100 percent effective at preventing severe disease in clinical trial data. It was approved for emergency use authorizations by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on December 18.
COVID-19 infection gives some immunity, but virus can still be spread, study finds
LONDON (Reuters) – People who have had COVID-19 are highly likely to have immunity to it for only five months, but there is evidence that those with antibodies may still be able to carry and spread the virus, a study of British healthcare workers has found. Preliminary findings by scientists at Public Health England (PHE) showed that reinfections in people who have COVID-19 antibodies from a past infection are rare – with only 44 cases found among 6,614 previously infected people in the study. But experts cautioned that the findings mean people who contracted the disease in the first wave of the pandemic in the early months of 2020 may now be vulnerable to catching it again. They also warned that people with so-called natural immunity – acquired through having had the infection – may still be able carry the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus in their nose and throat and could unwittingly pass it on. “We now know that most of those who have had the virus, and developed antibodies, are protected from reinfection, but this is not total and we do not yet know how long protection lasts,” said Susan Hopkins, senior medical adviser at PHE and co-leader of the study, whose findings were published on Thursday. “This means even if you believe you already had the disease and are protected, you can be reassured it is highly unlikely you will develop severe infections. But there is still a risk you could acquire an infection and transmit (it) to others.” Experts not directly involved in the research, which is known as the SIREN study, urged people to note its key findings. “These data reinforce the message that, for the time being, everyone is a potential source of infection for others and should behave accordingly,” said Eleanor Riley, a professor of immunology and infectious disease at Edinburgh University. Simon Clarke, an associate professor in cellular microbiology at Reading University, said the study “has major implications for how we can get out of the current crisis”. “This means that the vast majority of the population will either need to have natural immunity or have been immunised for us to fully lift restrictions on our lives, unless we are prepared to see many more people being infected and dying from COVID-19,” he said. PHE said in a statement that the study had not been able to explore antibody or other immune responses to the COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out in Britain. Vaccine effects would be studied as part of SIREN later this year, it said. The SIREN study involves tens of thousands of healthcare workers in Britain who have been tested regularly since June for new COVID-19 infections as well as for the presence of antibodies. Between June 18 and Nov. 24, scientists found 44 potential reinfections – two “probable” and 42 “possible” – among 6,614 participants who had tested positive for antibodies. This represents an 83% rate of protection from reinfection, they said. The researchers said they would continue to follow the participants to see if this natural immunity might last longer than five months in some. But they said early evidence from the next stage of the study suggested some people with immunity could still carry high levels of virus.
US stock futures rise and oil nears 1-year high as investors shrug off Donald Trump impeachment and cheer stimulus
- US stock futures rose, as investors looked past the likely impeachment of President Donald Trump towards the stimulus expected under the administration of Joe Biden.
- Oil prices rose again, approaching a 1-year high, as investors bet vaccines and stimulus would increase energy demand.
- US Treasury yields fell after a well-received government auction and Federal Reserve officials signaled they would not seek to wind down stimulus for some time.
US stocks were set to open slightly higher on Wednesday, while oil neared a 1-year high as investors looked past the impeachment of President Donald Trump to the stimulus expected under President-elect Joe Biden. After a solid start to the year, markets cooled at the beginning of this week. But investor confidence rose once again on Wednesday, despite House Democrats moving to impeach Trump for the second time. Vice President Mike Pence ruled out invoking the 25th amendment to remove Trump based on accusations that he provoked a right-wing mob to storm the Capitol. Pence’s decision sets the stage for Democrats to move ahead with impeaching Trump. Yet markets have not blinked at the political turmoil. Instead, they are focusing on the incoming Biden presidency, which is expected to bring more stimulus and stabler international economic relations. These hopes helped smaller US companies’ stock prices rise yesterday, with the Russell 2000 index jumping 1.77%. Expectations of more stimulus and higher growth pushed oil prices close to 1-year highs. Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose more than 0.3% in early trading to $56.80 a barrel, its highest since February. US benchmark WTI climbed to $53.41 per barrel, also the highest since February.
“There is good reason to believe that economic opening and oil demand recovery can kick in quite suddenly once we have managed to vaccinate those aged 65 or older,” said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at corporate bank SEB. Nick Bit: BULLLLLSHITTTTT This is nothing more then market masturbation. Reality it will be a year or more before their are enough mass vaccinations to allow the economy to even begin to open up!
Yields have risen markedly in 2021 so far, as Treasury prices have fallen, with some market participants betting that the Fed could tighten monetary policy sooner than previously expected, due to higher inflation. But Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren yesterday said: “I expect it to be a little while before we’re even talking about tapering on our purchases of government and mortgage backed securities.” Kansas City Fed President Esther George also said: “Overall, the outlook is for monetary policy to remain accommodative for some time.” Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank said in a note on Wednesday: “It was an evening for market participants to reassess their views on a potential tapering schedule.”
Economist Stephen Roach says the US economy’s V-shaped recovery is ‘in tatters’ and the dollar could crash 20% this year
- The US economy’s V-shaped recovery is “in tatters”, due to rising coronavirus cases and new restrictions, according to Yale economist and former Morgan Stanley Asia chair Stephen Roach.
- Roach said the dollar could drop around 20% this year, thanks to the growing US budget deficit and next-to-zero interest rates at the Federal Reserve.
- The former bank chair said the stock markets ‘do not seem to care’ about anything other than stimulus from the Fed.
The US economy’s recovery is in “tatters” after the latest rise in coronavirus cases and new restrictions, while the dollar could fall another 20% amid low interest rates and a yawning budget deficit, according to Yale economist and former bank chairman Stephen Roach. “The economy is slipping right before our very eyes,” Roach said in an interview, yet “the markets do not seem to care.” Roach pointed to recent economic data such as falling retail sales in November, a drop in consumer confidence and rising unemployment in December. The former chair of Morgan Stanley Asia said a “double-dip” recession is now likely. Explaining the recent rise in US stocks to all-time highs, Roach said investors were almost solely focused on Federal Reserve monetary policy.
“The markets are focusing really on one thing and that is the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at zero, no matter what happens,” he said.
“That gives the markets conviction to look through literally anything, from political insurrection to the likelihood of a double-dip, to a V-shaped recovery that’s in tatters. The markets do not seem to care.” Markets have also focused on the likelihood of more stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden and the Democrats, who last week won elections that will give them control of Congress. The Democrat victories in Georgia allowed markets to shrug off unprecedented scenes in Washington DC, where pro-Donald Trump protesters stormed the Capitol Building last week. Roach said more stimulus is “appropriate given the severe economic distress that continues to persist”. Yet he said there would be “consequences”. A higher budget deficit would lower domestic savings and increase the current account deficit, Roach argued, combining with ultra-loose monetary policy to hit the dollar. “I do see another 15 to 20% downside to the broad dollar index over the course of this year,” Roach said. The dollar has fallen more than 7% against a basket of currencies since January 2020. He said this reflected “not just the current account deficit, but the strength of the euro”. Roach added that, “most importantly”, the Fed holding interest rates at zero would forestall “a normal interest-rate hike that might otherwise boost the dollar”. However, the dollar has climbed more than 0.5% so far this year, taking the dollar index to 90.44. Rising bond yields and the prospects of higher growth have made the currency and US assets more attractive to non-US investors. Meanwhile, the division between the health of the US economy and markets continues to widen. Markets are riding the wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus and looking ahead to the middle of the year, when they hope vaccines will have allowed some semblance of normal life to return. Roach said stimulus may cause inflation “down the road”. But he said: “With aggregate demand remaining weak in the US, I think it’s going to take a while before that shows up.”
Schumer: More stimulus priority in new Senate
Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on that passing legislation to provide $2,000 stimulus checks will be one of the first orders of business once Democrats take control of the chamber on Jan. 20. “One of the first things I want to do … is deliver the $2,000 checks to the American families, The Senate appears headed to a 50-50 split, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris poised to cast any tie-breaking votes. Schumer declined to provide any details on how he would try to pass legislation for the $2,000 checks, such as whether it would be a stand-alone bill, part of a broader coronavirus relief package or the first measure called up for a vote. Spokespeople for Schumer didn’t immediately respond to a question about whether the leader wants to increase the stimulus checks under the latest stimulus deal from $600 to $2,000, or if the legislation he will offer would be for new checks in the amount of $2,000. Unless Democrats are going to try to pass the checks through reconciliation – a budget maneuver that allows them to avoid a 60-vote procedural hurdle – they will need support from at least 10 Republicans in order to pass a bill providing additional direct payments.
The pledge by Schumer comes after Senate Republicans blocked multiple attempts to boost the amount of the stimulus payments included in the $2.3 trillion deal that funded the government and provided a new round of coronavirus relief. The idea of increasing the checks has support from several GOP senators but it has also drawn fierce backlash from much of the caucus over concerns about spending or that the money does not go to those most directly affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) earlier this month addressed the issue by referencing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “While this huge new aid package takes effect, a bipartisan caucus in both chambers is not keen to let Speaker Pelosi and Senator Sanders to have universal cash giveaways regardless of needs,” McConnell said on the Senate floor.
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