Authorities in Italy announced the deaths of five more coronavirus patients on Thursday bringing the number of people who have died from the illness to 17. Here’s the latest information on the situation in Italy. The country’s civil protection agency released a statement on Thursday evening saying the number of overall cases had risen to 650. That number includes around 40 people who had been infected but are now fully recovered.
Coronavirus Screening ‘Missing More Than Half of Cases:’ Study
Global screening efforts to prevent the rapid spread of coronavirus are likely to fail, according to new research warning that even best-case screenings of air travelers will miss more than half of infected people. The novel coronavirus has infected more than 80,000 people worldwide since its emergence in central China last month.
Traveler screening using temperature monitors and questionnaires is a key response measure, yet the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday said for the first time the number of new cases outside mainland China exceeded those within it.
Researchers in the United States and Britain in a study published in the journal eLife used computer models to predict the impact of screening, based on the latest data of how the coronavirus behaves and how long it takes for patients to show symptoms.
Building on similar work in 2015, they found that many cases would inevitably be missed and called for a re-think in how nations screen passengers.
“If someone doesn’t realize they have been exposed, and doesn’t yet show symptoms, then they are fundamentally undetectable,” Katelyn Gostic, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Chicago and lead author told AFP.
“We estimate that on average, screening will miss about two-thirds of infected travelers.”
Gostic stressed that these misses were not the result of human error, but rather an inevitable by-product of how the virus behaves. The WHO says that the typical incubation period – that is the time between a patient contracting the virus and symptoms showing – is around 10-14 days. This means that patients could be contagious without even knowing it, rendering temperature tests searching for a tell-tale fever and even self-reporting of exposure largely useless. Upon screening, travelers fall into one of four categories: symptomatic but unaware of exposure; aware but asymptomatic; symptomatic and aware; and neither symptomatic nor aware. Gostic and the team found that the final category were completely undetectable by traditional screening methods, and travelers in the third category could only be caught if they were willing to self-report. Even assuming a best-case scenario where only one in 20 passengers were “subclinical” – that is, infected but not showing symptoms – the models predicted that 53 percent of cases would be missed. “Substantial fractions of the people who have tested positive in quarantine … did not show any detectable symptoms at the time of diagnosis,” said Gostic. “Some of these people may be true subclinical cases. Others will probably develop symptoms in a few days time. Either way, these stories illustrate the difficulty of screening, where the goal is to detect cases as early as possible, but where people simply don’t show detectable symptoms early in the course of infection.”
Gostic warned that the world may be at a “tipping point” where screening and even the kind of quarantine measures seen in the outbreak’s epicenter Wuhan are no longer effective.
“Governments should be thinking about pandemic mitigation,” she said.“But we should recognize the hard work and immense value that on-the-ground containment efforts have brought up until this point — providing time for healthcare workers and policymakers to prepare.”
WHAT ARE THE SYMPTOMS OF THE CORONAVIRUS
The signs of COVID-19, the infection caused by the coronavirus, are often mild and are very similar to a cold, flu or chest infection. Typical symptoms of infection include a fever, a cough, and shortness of breath or difficulty breathing.
These are common complaints at this time of year, so where someone has travelled or who they have come into contact with are important in determining whether they might have coronavirus.
The NHS considers people to be at risk if they have the symptoms above and have recently travelled to mainland China, South Korea, Thailand, Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Macau, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, or the north of Italy (north of Pisa and Florence).
People who have, in the past two weeks, been to the Hubei province of China, Iran, the South Korean cities of Daegu or Cheongdo in South Korea, or one of 11 quarantined towns in northern Italy are considered to be at risk even if they feel well.
The 11 towns in Italy are Codogno, Castiglione d’Adda, Casalpusterlengo, Fombio, Maleo, Somaglia, Bertonico, Terranova dei Passerini, Castelgerundo, San Fiorano and Vo’ Euganeo.
Those who have come into contact with others who have visited those places and then feel ill may also be at risk.
People who fit any of the categories above should stay at home and self-isolate, away from other people, and phone NHS 111 for more advice. If you think you have the coronavirus do not go to a doctor’s surgery or hospital.
The virus can spread through coughing, sneezing, or by being close to someone for prolonged periods of time.
To protect themselves, people should cough and sneeze into a tissue and throw it away, wash their hands and avoid contact with sick people.
Source: NHS
Patients in Guangdong Province were struck again after being given all clear
14 PERCENT of coronavirus patients tested positive a SECOND time in one Chinese region, health official admits
- It comes after a 40-year-old woman in Japan was diagnosed a second time
- Experts in virology say it throws into question the reliability of Chinese testing
Around 14 per cent of coronavirus patients tested positive a second time in one Chinese region despite being given the all clear. A health official in Guangdong Province told The New York Times that the patients had been discharged from hospital after testing negative for the virus but then fell ill again later. It follows reports in Japan of a 40-year-old woman who tested positive for a second time yesterday. Experts said patients should develop an immunity to stop reinfection. Professor Mark Harris, Professor of Virology, University of Leeds, said: ‘Although coronaviruses generally cause short-term self-limiting infections which are cleared, there is some evidence in the scientific literature for persistent infections of animal coronaviruses, mainly in bats.’ Professor Harris added: ‘The reports that patients who tested negative subsequently tested positive again is clearly of concern. ‘It is unlikely that they would have been reinfected having cleared the virus, as they would most likely have mounted an immune response to the virus that would prevent such reinfection. ‘The other possibility therefore is that they did not in fact clear the infection but remained persistently infected.’ Around 14 per cent of coronavirus patients in one region of China have been diagnosed a second time. Pictured: Medical staff treating coronavirus patients at a hospital in Wuhan
The secondary cases raise fears that patients have wrongly been declared free of the virus. A tour bus operator in Japan has also tested positive for coronavirus for a second time It’s not yet clear if the people who tested positive for a second time are contagious as 13 of those who were in close contact with more than 100 people after being discharged appear to have not passed it on, the health offical said. Patients in China must test negative twice and undergo a chest scan before they can be release.A woman in Japan who recovered from coronavirus and was released from hospital has tested positive again. The 40-year-old woman, who was initially infected after working on a tour bus with sightseers from Wuhan, tested positive for a second time yesterday. Government officials say it is the first known incident of this kind in Japan. The woman was first confirmed as infected with the coronavirus on January 29. After being discharged from hospital she tested negative for the virus on February 6, although she still had a cough at the time. She had no symptoms a week later, but returned to the doctor on February 21 complaining of a sore throat and chest pains. On Wednesday, she tested positive for the coronavirus for a second time, officials in Osaka said. The driver of the tour bus, which was carrying tourists from the city of Wuhan at the centre of the outbreak, also tested positive for the virus. Though a first known case for Japan, second positive tests have been reported in China where the disease originated late last year. At least 186 people in Japan have so far contracted the virus, with three deaths in the country linked to the outbreak. Prof Rowland Kao, Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology and Data Science at the University of Edinburgh, said: ‘Assuming that there is a minimal possibility of misdiagnosis, it still remains unclear from the published reports whether the person involved was likely re-infected, or whether this represents an infection that may have been partially cleared or perhaps has gone latent. ‘In either case, given the number of reported cases thus far, it would seem unlikely that this is a common occurrence, and thus should have only a small impact on the overall epidemic projections themselves.’ ‘Of possibly greater concern are the implications for control measures – should quarantine periods be extended? It also makes contact tracing even more difficult, potentially straining resources.’
Trump faces credibility test as he plays down virus threat
After two days of the stock market tumbling, Trump took to Twitter Wednesday morning to blame the media and Democrats for causing undue alarm and harming American financial markets.
He singled out MSNBC and CNN for “doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible,” and added that ”incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action.” He blamed part of this week’s stock market slide on people’s reaction to Tuesday night’s Democratic debate and the possibility one of those candidates might replace him. And Trump acknowledged that the outbreak could “have an impact on GDP” but insisted that the U.S. economy is still “doing great.”
The setting for Trump’s evening press conference — the White House press briefing room — was meant to offer a sense of calm and assurance by the president. It was only the second time in his presidency that Trump had spoken from the podium in that room, and aides acknowledged he was trying to underscore that he has the situation under control and understands the gravity.
In advance, Trump played down the mortality rate for a pathogen that has been confirmed to have killed 2,700 people globally. His top economic adviser, Larry Kudlow, echoed Trump’s outlook, saying Tuesday that the U.S. had “contained” the threat of a domestic outbreak.
Trump’s and Kudlow’s comments were at odds with warnings from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention officials who said American communities need to prepare now for when the disease starts spreading domestically. So far, there have been just 60 confirmed cases in the U.S.
“The messaging by the White House is unhelpful,” said Lawrence Gostin, a professor of global health law at Georgetown University. “What the White House is doing is conveying a sense of overconfidence. … Of course, we do want to maintain calm with the public, but it flies in the face of facts.”Trump’s public efforts to project calm masked a behind-the-scenes focus. During his 36-hour visit to India, Trump received briefings from staff and periodically checked the impact on Wall Street, tweeting at all hours to try to reassure Americans and the markets about the spread of the virus.
Trump expressed deep concern to aides about the effect on the markets, according to White House officials and Republicans close to the West Wing. Trump has tied his fortunes to Wall Street more closely than any of his recent predecessors and has made a strong economy his No. 1 argument for reelection.
As the media coverage of the virus has increased, Trump has grown concerned that even fears of an outbreak would stagger Wall Street, leading him to wonder aloud if Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar was the right person to lead the administration’s response, the officials said. Since the start of the crisis, Trump has been reluctant to blame China, where the virus originated, for fear of upsetting President Xi Jinping or damaging ongoing trade talks. But he is also fearful he could be accused of being unresponsive to the crisis. At the urging of a number of his internal and outside advisers, he directed the White House to adopt a more public presence, leading to a briefing by officials and emails to the press stressing the administration’s response. The virus has already shut Chinese factories that are part of the U.S. supply chain. Mark Zandi, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, estimated Wednesday that U.S. growth could slow to 1.7% this year — roughly the same level as in 2016. He said the situation could become worse if a pandemic emerges.
At Tuesday’s presidential debate, Mike Bloomberg claimed “there’s nobody here to figure out what the hell we should be doing.” Sen. Amy Klobuchar criticized Trump for trying to cut back funding of the CDC and the National Institutes of Health.
Coronavirus Precautions: Hundreds In New York Asked To Isolate Themselves, Including 112 On Long Island, 8 In Westchester
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – New York is bracing for a coronavirus outbreak. CBS2 has learned hundreds of people are being monitored for possible coronavirus exposure in New York state. The Health Department says 700 people in the state have been asked to voluntarily self-isolate for two weeks. That includes 83 people in Nassau County, 29 in Suffolk County and eight in Westchester. It’s important to point out there are no confirmed cases here, and no one in New York City or in New Jersey is being monitored. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says it’s not a matter of if, but when the coronavirus becomes a bigger issue in the United States. Wednesday, Mayor Bill de Blasio joined New York City health officials to outline a plan of action once the virus shows up in the city. All those who were in quarantine have been released – but that’s expected to change. And once it does, city leaders say they’re ready, but could use more help from the federal government. De Blasio was flanked by city health officials to outline the plan to address the coronavirus. “We’re in a state of high vigilance, high readiness all across city government to address this crisis,” de Blasio said. When necessary, 1,200 hospital beds will be available throughout the city to treat affected patients. 1.5 million surgical masks have also been bought for healthcare professionals and first responders, including the NYPD. “We’ve given out thousands upon thousands of gloves, masks, and wipes to our command. Patrols, housing and transit has them,” said NYPD Chief of Department Terence Monahan. “For everyday New Yorkers, there’s no need to use a mask,” said NYC Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot. “While there are no confirmed cases, we are in close contact with the city’s Health Department regarding potential impact to school communities, and are communicating updated guidance to principals and families today. There are no plans to close schools at this time, and any changes will be determined by public health experts,” the Department of Education said in a statement. Schools are providing parents with information, hoping they’re the first line of defense to keep children home who have flu like symptoms and have been to the affected area or exposed to someone who has. “Every New Yorker needs to take responsibility. So if you have a symptom and you have that nexus or your child does, act,” he said. Cty leaders want the federal government needs to do more. De Blasio says the city needs access to 300,000 more masks. He wants the CDC to utilize local labs and lean on the medical community to help develop a test for the coronavirus. DeBlasio also says travel restrictions should be extended to include more countries. “Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand. Anyone needs to be screened and if they have symptoms they need to be quarantined,” de Blasio said. City leaders don’t want to increase fear but provide the necessary information as the coronavirus continues to spread. Doctors say the coronavirus has not been as severe outside of China. The advice to prevent it- or any virus from spreading- is still to wash your hands frequently and cover your cough with your elbow. Monday afternoon, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he’s sending an emergency supplemental appropriations bill to the legislature next week asking for $40 million for the Department of Health.
Gilead to start testing Remdesivir in Asia in March
Gilead Sciences announced on Wednesday it would soon initiate two Phase 3 studies for Remdesivir for treatment of the coronavirus, which will include testing the drug on patients in countries most affected by the disease.”Gilead’s primary focus is on rapidly determining the safety and efficacy of remdesivir as a potential treatment for COVID-19,” the pharmaceutical company said in a statement.The study will be conducted on 1,000 patients, mostly in countries across Asia, who will receive the drug for ten days.
Coronavirus screening ‘missing more than half of cases’: study
Global screening efforts to prevent the rapid spread of coronavirus are likely to fail, according to new research warning that even best-case screenings of air travelers will miss more than half of infected people. The novel coronavirus has infected more than 80,000 people worldwide since its emergence in central China last month.
Traveler screening using temperature monitors and questionnaires is a key response measure, yet the World Health Organization (WHO) on Wednesday said for the first time the number of new cases outside mainland China exceeded those within it.
Researchers in the United States and Britain in a study published in the journal eLife used computer models to predict the impact of screening, based on the latest data of how the coronavirus behaves and how long it takes for patients to show symptoms.
Building on similar work in 2015, they found that many cases would inevitably be missed and called for a re-think in how nations screen passengers.
“If someone doesn’t realize they have been exposed, and doesn’t yet show symptoms, then they are fundamentally undetectable,” Katelyn Gostic, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Chicago and lead author told AFP.
“We estimate that on average, screening will miss about two-thirds of infected travelers.”
Gostic stressed that these misses were not the result of human error, but rather an inevitable by-product of how the virus behaves. The WHO says that the typical incubation period – that is the time between a patient contracting the virus and symptoms showing – is around 10-14 days. This means that patients could be contagious without even knowing it, rendering temperature tests searching for a tell-tale fever and even self-reporting of exposure largely useless. Upon screening, travelers fall into one of four categories: symptomatic but unaware of exposure; aware but asymptomatic; symptomatic and aware; and neither symptomatic nor aware. Gostic and the team found that the final category were completely undetectable by traditional screening methods, and travelers in the third category could only be caught if they were willing to self-report. Even assuming a best-case scenario where only one in 20 passengers were “subclinical” – that is, infected but not showing symptoms – the models predicted that 53 percent of cases would be missed. “Substantial fractions of the people who have tested positive in quarantine … did not show any detectable symptoms at the time of diagnosis,” said Gostic.“Some of these people may be true subclinical cases. Others will probably develop symptoms in a few days time. Either way, these stories illustrate the difficulty of screening, where the goal is to detect cases as early as possible, but where people simply don’t show detectable symptoms early in the course of infection.”
Gostic warned that the world may be at a “tipping point” where screening and even the kind of quarantine measures seen in the outbreak’s epicenter Wuhan are no longer effective.
“Governments should be thinking about pandemic mitigation,” she said. “But we should recognize the hard work and immense value that on-the-ground containment efforts have brought up until this point — providing time for healthcare workers and policymakers to prepare.
Coronavirus spreads to S. America with first case in Brazil
More coronavirus new infections outside China than inside – WHO
Could the coronavirus pandemic be stopped? US warns of ‘severe’ disruptions
“Disruption to everyday life may be severe,” Nancy Messonnier, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, warned at a news conference Tuesday.
Schools could be closed, mass public gatherings suspended and businesses forced to have employees work remotely, she said. Messonnier said the coronavirus has caused sickness and death and sustained person-to-person transmission. That’s two of the three factors for a pandemic, she said. “As community spread is detected in more and more countries, the world moves closer to meeting the third criteria – worldwide spread of the new virus,” Messonnier said. Although the World Health Organization determined Monday that the term pandemic “did not fit the facts,” experts said it very soon could. Dennis Carroll, former director of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Global Health Security and Development Unit, credited China’s “extraordinary control measures” with delaying the spread of the virus, but he said avoiding a pandemic is “very unlikely.” “The dramatic uptick of cases in South Korea, Iran and Italy are reflective of a self-sustaining spreading of the virus and a clear message that the horse is out of the barn,” Carroll, who leads the Global Virome Project science cooperative, told USA TODAY. Melissa Nolan, a medical doctor and professor of epidemiology at the University of South Carolina’s Arnold School of Public Health, cited new clusters in Iran, which faces at least 95 cases and has had 16 deaths, and Italy, which is dealing with 322 cases.
“If we continue to see focalized local transmission in areas outside of China, the WHO will need to reconvene,” Nolan told USA TODAY on Tuesday. “We are very close to seeing this virus becoming a pandemic.”
Nolan said responses to the outbreaks in Iran and Italy could help health officials in other countries prepare their own medical and quarantine policies before an outbreak. That is crucial, said Robert Glatter, an emergency physician at New York’s Lenox Hill Hospital who fears the world is on the “cusp” of a pandemic.
“Trying to contain a disease which spreads like influenza, in this case COVID-19, is almost impossible,” he said. “We are talking about rapid-fire and sustained transmission.”
Beyond an epidemic, which involves a defined region, a pandemic has global impact. It can be a moving target – there is no threshold, such as number of deaths or infections.