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Delta COVID variant threat to global recovery – Fed’s Daly
A senior Fed official warned Delta coronavirus variant The low vaccination rate in some parts of the world poses a threat to the global recovery because she urges caution to remove monetary support for the US economy. Mary Daley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, said in an interview with the Financial Times: “I think one of the biggest risks to our future global growth is that we announced our victory over Covid too early.” “We are not passing Pandemic, We are getting through the pandemic. “ Daly, who is the voting member Federal Open Market Committee This year, it pointed out the struggle of Japan and other countries to contain the virus. She said that the surge in the number of foreign infections and the lag in vaccination activities are inhibiting the economic rebound and may have a negative impact on the United States. “If the global economy… can’t get it… a higher vaccination rate will really leave Covid behind [us], Then it’s not good for US economic growth,” Daly said. “The good number of vaccinations is great, but look at all the pockets that haven’t happened yet. ” Daly’s warning came as investors sought safe havens in droves this week, pushing up U.S. government bond prices. SoarAs a result, US Treasury bond yields fell sharply, and benchmark 10-year Treasury bond trading prices were at their lowest level since February. Global stock markets fell on Thursday. Many market participants attribute the sharp drop in U.S. Treasury yields to technical factors. But more and more people have expressed concern that the economy will not be able to sustain the hot growth rate that has been accompanied by the reopening so far, and predict that the recent surge in inflation will quickly disappear. “In the United States, the news is very positive, but the global news is not so positive,” Daly said. “It’s always been good, but it’s not great. The market will react to these things, which of course will reduce the rate of return because they put the risk there.” She added: “What you see is that people are becoming more aware of the downside risks facing the global economy.” Federal Reserve June meeting It seems to be a catalyst for recent market trends. Central bank officials predict that they will raise interest rates faster and more aggressively than predicted earlier this year. However, in an interview with the Financial Times, Daley, who is considered one of the more moderate Fed officials, said that there is no doubt that the Fed will stick to the monetary policy framework it adopted in August 2020. Excessive inflation in the pursuit of full employment. “chair [Jay] Powell expressed this so clearly in his press conference that I think this is a highlight that deserves attention,” Daly said. “This is the message I have been saying: we are fully committed to our framework. This means eliminating job shortages and achieving an average inflation rate of 2%, which remains absolutely the most important. “ Daley’s comments were made at a critical moment in the Fed’s decision, as it discussed the cancellation of some of the large-scale monetary support provided for economic recovery at the beginning of the pandemic. The minutes of the June FOMC meeting released on Wednesday showed that some policymakers believe that the Fed may soon begin to reduce the size of its asset purchases by US$120 billion per month. However, although Daley said that the debate around “cutting” is justified, the central bank must “focus on the long-term goals of full employment and price stability, and really have enough patience and perseverance to fulfill these promises. This is our opinion. What the American people did”. In addition, Daley believes that raising interest rates from the current level of close to zero will have to wait until the end of the asset purchase. Other more hawkish Fed officials have hinted that there may be some overlap.
“We are ready to downsize in due course,” she said. “Then I want to see, how? How does the economy react to this? Because we can predict, we can predict, but we need to know to really say, “Oh, well, now is the time to enter the next phase. “This is a small amount of discussion about policy normalization and the upcoming issues of the federal funds rate.”
Daley said that the disagreements among Fed officials on how to quickly remove support for the economy disclosed in the minutes of the meeting are healthy, because officials put forward their “different views” instead of operating in the “echo chamber.” As far as she is concerned, the chairman of the San Francisco Fed stated that she is not ready to enter the post-pandemic environment. “I think there is always a sense of excitement,’oh my goodness: look, the vaccination works, this may be the end’. But it is too early to say that we have won here.”
Pfizer to develop booster jab for COVID Delta variant
- Pfizer and BioNTech announced Thursday they are developing a Covid-19 booster shot intended to target the delta variant.
- Clinical studies could begin as early as August, subject to regulatory approvals.
- Executives from Pfizer and BioNtech have repeatedly said people will likely need a booster shot, or third dose, within 12 months of getting fully vaccinated.
Pfizer Inc. and BioNTech SE announced that they are in the process of developing a booster shot for their coronavirus vaccine that will specifically target the Delta variant of the virus. The companies noted that they remain certain that a third jab of their existing vaccine would be enough to provide extra protection against the Delta variant, but stated that they are developing an updated version of the vaccine just for that variant in order to “remain vigilant.” Lastly, the pharmaceutical firms said that, following real-world evidence released by Israeli health authorities, vaccine efficacy declines after six months. Therefore, they concluded that, based on the current data, a third dose may be needed “within six to 12 months after full vaccination.”
Wall Street closes in red amid COVID-19 concerns
United States equity markets extended losses on Thursday to close the trading session in the red zone. Most concerns revolved around rising COVID-19 cases globally and the threat of the Delta variant. The Olympics leadership announced that Summer Olympics in Tokyo will be held without spectators following Japan’s declaration of the fourth state of emergency. Meanwhile, US jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 373,000 coming higher than expected and signaling a possible slowdown in the labor market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note dropped to 1.256%, the lowest point since February. The Dow lost 0.75% as the Travelers Companies slid 2.41%, while the S&P 500 closed with 0.86% below the flatline with Kansas City Southern plunging 7.87%. The Nasdaq 100 dropped 0.60% led by CSX Corporation falling 6.16%. The euro gained 0.47% against the dollar to trade for $1.18465 at 4:02 pm ET.
Radio Free Wall Street
It’s A Dangerous Time
After a great tragedy it’s amazing how many people lose everything. The pandemic is not over. The economy has not recovered and many people are making many serious mistakes. That also means there are serious opportunities. We’ll discuss this in this edition of Radio Free Wall Street.
Israel sees drop in Pfizer vaccine protection against Delta infections Springfield, MO hospital out of ventilators, increase of COVID-19 patients
JERUSALEM, July 5 (Reuters) – Israel reported on Monday a decrease in the effectiveness of the Pfizer/BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine in preventing infections and symptomatic illness but said it remained highly effective in preventing serious illness. The decline coincided with the spread of the Delta variant and the end of social distancing restrictions in Israel
. Vaccine effectiveness in preventing both infection and symptomatic disease fell to 64% since June 6, the Health Ministry said.
At the same time the vaccine was 93% effective in preventing hospitalizations and serious illness from the coronavirus. (NB Its to early to asertain this) The ministry in its statement did not say what the previous level was or provide any further details. However ministry officials published a report in May that two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine provided more than 95% protection against infection, hospitalization and severe illness. A Pfizer spokesperson declined to comment on the data from Israel, but cited other research showing that antibodies elicited by the vaccine were still able to neutralize all tested variants, including Delta, albeit at reduced strength. About 60% of Israel’s 9.3 million population have received at least one shot of Pfizer’s vaccine in a campaign that saw daily cases drop from more than 10,000 in January to single digits last month.
This spurred Israel to drop nearly all social distancing as well as the requirement to wear masks, though the latter was partially reimposed in recent days. At the same time Delta, which has become a globally dominant variant of the coronavirus, began to spread.
Since then daily cases have gradually risen, reaching 343 on Sunday. The number of seriously ill rose to 35 from 21. Data scientist Eran Segal of Israel’s Weizmann Institute of Science said the country was unlikely to experience the high levels of hospitalizations seen earlier in the year since there were much fewer critically ill. He said it was fine to “continue with life back to normal and without restrictions” while stepping up measures like vaccination outreach and ensuring testing for Israelis returning home from abroad
Pandemic ‘far from over’ – UK’s Boris Johnson
PM hopeful restrictions can end on July 19 but warns pandemic is ‘far from over’
The final lifting of lockdown restrictions will go ahead in England on July 19 if all the tests are met, Boris Johnson has confirmed. Addressing the nation and flanked by Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, the PM said tonight (Monday, July 5) that step four of the roadmap plan is expected to go ahead. The final decision will be confirmed next Monday (July 12) following a review of the data and will see most rules end.
“I want to stress this pandemic is far from over,” the PM warned.
He added: “We must take a careful and balanced decision.” The vaccine rollout will be further accelerated by reducing the dosing interval for under-40s from 12 weeks to eight weeks.
Fed’s Harker supports start to tapering in 2021
June 2 (Reuters) – As the U.S. economy continues to recover from the coronavirus crisis and the labor market rebounds, it may be time for Federal Reserve policymakers to start thinking about the best way to slow the pace of its asset purchases, Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker said on Wednesday. “We’re planning to keep the federal funds rate low for long,” Harker said during remarks prepared for a virtual event. “But it may be time to at least think about thinking about tapering our $120 billion in monthly Treasury bond and mortgage-backed securities purchases.” Harker said the Fed would not move suddenly when it begins to reduce the pace of the purchases, which were ramped up last year in an effort to stabilize markets and support the economy after it was upended by the pandemic. “We will remove accommodation carefully and methodically as the economy continues to strengthen,” he said. “Our goal here is to be boring.” Fed officials agreed at their last meeting to keep purchasing bonds at the current pace until there is substantial further progress toward the central bank’s goals for inflation and maximum employment. Several policymakers acknowledged recently that they are closer to discussing when to reduce some of those purchases. The Fed’s next policy-setting meeting takes place on June 15 and 16. Harker said he expects the U.S. economy to grow by 7% this year and at a slower pace of about 3% in 2022. The policymaker said he expects job creation to pick up over the next several months and that the labor market could return to pre-pandemic trends by next summer. The Fed has said it doesn’t plan to lift rates until the economy is back to full employment and inflation is set to reach its 2% target.
Fed’s Bullard warns high inflation can extend into 2022
https://youtu.be/WlO8AjPZtO4
A recent burst of inflation could prove more long-lasting than expected as the surging U.S. economy faces widespread bottlenecks that have severely disrupted the global supply chain, a Federal Reserve official said on Thursday.
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Inflation may be even stronger in coming months than Federal Reserve policymakers currently expect as the U.S. recovery likely gains steam in the fall and a global recovery follows, St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard said on Thursday.
That could push the level of prices beyond what is needed to account for recent years of inflation below the Fed’s 2% target, and presented a “new risk” that Fed officials will have to consider in coming months.
“Inflation may surprise still further to the upside as the reopening process continues, beyond the level necessary to simply make up for past misses to the low side,” Bullard said in a presentation prepared for delivery to the Clayton Chamber of Commerce near St. Louis. Bullard earlier this week said he was among the Fed policymakers who expect interest rates will need to increase next year. Faster than expected inflation this year and on into 2022 will, he said, meet the Fed’s intent to let the pace of price increases exceed the formal 2% target for a time to offset years in which inflation has been too low. His comments Thursday suggest concerns of an even larger inflation shock.There has already, he said, been a “substantial” surprise in terms of stronger than anticipated economic growth and inflation. As schools reopen in the U.S. in the fall and more countries reopen their economies, “the risk is tangible” inflation could move higher than projected. “Policymakers will have to take this new risk into account in the months and quarters ahead,” he said.
Oil slips as Delta strain fears trump demand hopes
Oil prices fell on Tuesday as outbreaks of the highly contagious COVID-19 variant Delta and the re-emergence of travel restrictions raised fears over demand ahead of Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting. International benchmark Brent crude was trading at $74 per barrel at 06.55 GMT, a 0.19% decrease after closing Monday at $74.14 a barrel. American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded at $72.86 a barrel at the same time, a 0.07% drop after ending the previous session at $72.91 per barrel. Uncertainties on whether restrictions due to the coronavirus variant will be re-imposed in Europe and many Asian countries are weighing on prices. “The forecast for oil demand recovery over the summer may be a bit overestimated and traders are facing a reality check this week as the Delta variant reached Europe, and as infections surge in Southeast Asia and Australia to bring back lockdowns,” said Rystad Energy’s Oil Markets Analyst Louise Dickson. Investors also await US crude oil inventory data to be announced by the country’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday. Another key signal anticipated is the outcome of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other affiliated producers, known as OPEC+, at Thursday’s meeting, and whether it will reflect investor demand fears in their production quota decision. “The market consensus is that OPEC+ will likely raise production by about 500,000 bpd [barrels per day] for August, which would still be a net positive for oil prices as it doesn’t fully satiate the swiftly growing demand profile over summer, depending on the Delta variant developments, of course,” Dickson said. The UK saw its highest daily number of coronavirus cases since the end of January this year. In Russia, 21,650 coronavirus cases were recorded over the past day, raising the overall count to more than 5.47 million with active cases reaching 369,708 – the highest figure since Jan. 20. Bangladesh recorded a new spike in COVID-19 infections with 8,364 cases, raising fears of a serious crisis in hospital beds if the surge continues.