Category: Breaking News

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US gov lab presented COVID lab origin theory – report

A report on the origins of Covid-19 by a US government national laboratory concluded that the hypothesis claiming the virus leaked from a Chinese lab in Wuhan is plausible and deserves further investigation, according to a report.The study was prepared in May 2020 by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California and was referred by the State Department when it conducted an inquiry into the pandemic’s origins during the final months of the Trump administration, the The Wall Street Journal reported. Lawrence Livermore’s assessment drew on genomic analysis of the Covid-19 virus, the newspaper said. The laboratory declined to comment on the report. President Joe Biden said last month he had ordered aides to find answers to the origin of the virus.US intelligence agencies are considering two likely scenarios – that the virus resulted from a laboratory accident or that it emerged from human contact with an infected animal – but they have not come to a conclusion, Mr Biden said.

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UK’s Hancock: Too early to decide on reopening

Health Secretary Matt Hancock says it is “too early” to make a decision on if the final lockdown restrictions will be lifted on June 21. However, he adds there is not anything in the data to suggest the date needs to be delayed. The majority of people infected with the Indian Covid variant have not had either dose of the vaccine, with just 3 per cent of cases (177 out of 5,599) having received both doses, Public Health England figures show.

Of 201 people who ended up in hospital just five had had both vaccine doses, while 138 were unvaccinated and 45 had had their first dose more than three weeks previously.

It comes as the R-rate in England has inched higher and may now be above 1. Data released on Friday by the Department of Health and Social Care puts the figure between 1.0 and 1.1.

Here the latest developments at a glance:

  • The UK reported 19,114 new cases on Friday, slightly down from yesterday’s 20,634, as well as a further 1,014 deaths from Covid-19.
  • The Cabinet Office was right to say all adults aged 50 and over will have had a coronavirus vaccine by May, Downing Street said after initially dismissing the report.
  • The government’s top scientific advisers warned last month that a “complete, pre-emptive closure of borders” was needed to fully prevent new coronavirus strains being imported into the UK.
  • Around 1 in 65 people in the community in England are estimated to have had the disease in the week ending 30 January, compared with 1 in 70 in Wales, 1 in 65 in Northern Ireland and 1 in 115 in Scotland. The week before the figures were 1 in 55, 1 in 70, 1 in 50 and 1 in 110 respectively.
  • London continues to have the highest proportion of people likely to test positive for coronavirus in any region of England, with around one in 50 people estimated to have the virus.
  • The reproduction number, or R value, of coronavirus transmission across the UK is between 0.7 and 1, according to the latest government figures. Last week, it was between 0.7 and 1.1.
  • The outcomes of targeted tests to track the South African coronavirus variant in England could take up to two weeks, public health officials have said.
  • Health secretary Matt Hancock said it was “too early” to decide whether restrictions could be eased in March, and said there were no current plans to roll out vaccine passports for those who had received both jabs, despite a report to the contrary.
  • The Oxford/AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine could be as effective at fighting the UK variant as it is in fighting the original virus, new research suggests.
  • Covid vaccines approved for use in the UK are safe, with the benefits of their use far outweighing any risks, the UK’s medicines regulator has said after examining new data.
  • Education minister Kirsty Williams told the Welsh government briefing on Friday that children in the foundation stage of their schooling would return to school from February 22.
  • Scotland saw largest daily number of vaccinations given since rollout began, as another 48,165 patients in Scotland had received a first dose of coronavirus vaccine by Friday morning.
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Covid: Small businesses’ account delays are over, insist banks

Banks Under scrutiny

The saga prompted the Treasury Committee to seek reassurances from six major banks – NatWest, Lloyds, HSBC, Barclays, Metro Bank and Santander – that they were committed to serving small businesses as the country emerged from lockdowns. In their replies, a number of banks said they had seen a rise in complaints, but against a background of rising demand and their own staffing pressures owing to Covid. “It is clear that delivering on bounce back loans at short notice rapidly increased the demand for business bank accounts at the same time as banks faced considerable additional work in delivering this extra support,” said Mr Stride. “It is good to hear from these banks that the availability of business bank accounts is now returning to pre-pandemic levels.” He said the committee would “keep a close eye” on the issue and on the commitment from banks to support small businesses as the UK started to move out of the pandemic.

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US nonfarm payrolls up by 559,000 in May

U.S. employers added 559,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate fell to 5.8%, in a pickup of the labor market’s recovery from the pandemic amid signs that businesses struggled to fill job openings. Last month’s gain represented an improvement from April, when the unemployment rate was 6.1% and the economy added a revised 278,000 jobs, a gain much smaller than economists had forecast. Economists had expected 671,000 jobs added and a 5.9% unemployment rate in May. Job gains in May were led by leisure and hospitality, which added 292,000 jobs, education, and healthcare, the Labor Department said. The faster pace of hiring came as several factors are propelling a burst of economic activity. More Americans have become vaccinated against the coronavirus, and state and local governments have eased restrictions on businesses as Covid-19 cases have declined and as the federal government has relaxed its pandemic guidance. Those factors, along with federal pandemic aid, have prompted a pickup in spending, particularly at services businesses, which in turn is stoking labor demand. Employment in May was still down by about 7.6 million jobs compared with pre-pandemic levels, and 9.3 million people were unemployed and potentially available to work. The unemployment rate fell because more Americans who were searching for work found jobs, but the number of people in the labor force held nearly steady, suggesting that ample open jobs and some improvement in wages didn’t draw more workers off the sidelines in May. The labor force participation rate, the share of adults working or looking for work, edged slightly lower in May to 61.6%, down from 63.3% in February 2020. Average hourly pay for private-sector employees increased by 15 cents to $30.33 in May. Hourly wage rose 2% from a year earlier.

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Benefits’ expiry to get people back to labor force – Fed’s Kaplan

More Americans should be expected to return to the labor market as unemployment benefits gradually decline, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday. Speaking at a virtual event organized by the Rice University, he noted that conflicting data on unemployment create “a puzzle” that does not require additional measures of monetary policy easing. Moving on to economic supply problems, he stated that they should be viewed as structural and that they may not be as affected by monetary policy steps as some demand issues were during previous economic recoveries.

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Initial jobless claims in US down 20,000 to 385,000

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell last week for a fifth straight week to a new pandemic low, the latest evidence that the U.S. job market is regaining its health as the economy further reopens. The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless claims dropped to 385,000, down 20,000 from the week before. The number of weekly applications for unemployment aid, which generally reflects the pace of layoffs, has fallen steadily all year, though it remains high by historical standards. The decline in applications reflects a swift rebound in economic growth and the job market’s steady recovery from the coronavirus recession. More Americans are venturing out to shop, travel, dine out and congregate at entertainment venues. All that renewed spending has led companies to seek new workers. Employers have added 1.8 million jobs this year — an average of more than 450,000 a month — and the government’s May jobs report on Friday is expected to show that they added an additional 656,000 last month, according to a survey of economists by the data firm FactSet. The economy remains down 8.2 million jobs from its level in February 2020, just before the virus tore through the economy. AnnElizabeth Konkel, economist at the Indeed Hiring Lab, noted that the number of people who are collecting traditional state unemployment benefits rose by 169,000 in the week of May 22 to nearly 3.8 million. “Reviving a labor market after a deadly pandemic is complicated,” she said. “Not all indicators move at the same speed or take the same recovery path. Hopefully, the COVID-19 cases continue to decline as the number of fully vaccinated individuals rises. Fully returning to pre-COVID normal is essential to a full labor market recovery.” In the meantime, U.S. employers are posting a record number of available jobs. And many of them have complained that they can’t find enough workers to meet rising customer demand. Job growth slowed sharply in April compared compared with March, a pullback that was widely attributed to a labor shortage in some industries, especially at restaurants and other employers in the hospitality sector. At least 25 states have responded by announcing plans to cut off some emergency federal aid to the unemployed — including a $300-a-week federal benefit — as early as next week. Critics argue that the extra federal unemployment aid, on top of regular state jobless benefits, discourages some of the jobless from seeking work. Weekly applications for unemployment aid, which topped 900,000 in early January, have fallen steadily all year, though they remain high by historical standards: Before COVID-19 all but paralyzed the economy in March 2020, claims were regularly coming in below 230,000 a week. In the week that ended May 15, a total of 15.4 million people were receiving some form of jobless aid, including special federal programs to aid the unemployed during the pandemic. That was down from 15.8 million the previous week. That figure has steadily declined from about 20 million in December.

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Fed: Recovery picked up pace in past 2 months

(Bloomberg) — Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast. The pace of the U.S. recovery picked up somewhat in the past two months, sparking price pressures as businesses contended with worker scarcity and rising costs, the Federal Reserve said. “The national economy expanded at a moderate pace from early April to late May, a somewhat faster rate than the prior reporting period,” the U.S. central bank said in its Beige Book survey released on Wednesday. “Overall price pressures increased further since the last report. Selling prices increased moderately, while input costs rose more briskly.” The report was based on information collected by the Fed’s 12 regional banks on or before May 25 and compiled by the Cleveland branch. Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton LLP, wrote in a tweet that the survey shows demand continues to improve faster than supply across the board, which is showing up in prices. “It’s gong to be a hot summer for prices and wages — real test is whether we see shortages persist only 4Q,” she said. Fed officials are considering how quickly to trim monetary policy support with an increased pace of vaccinations brightening the U.S. outlook. The Federal Open Market Committee will update its quarterly forecasts for interest rates, growth, unemployment and inflation at its June 15-16 gathering. The Beige Book reported that some businesses were able to take advantage of stronger demand to pass along higher input costs to customers. “Looking forward, contacts anticipate facing cost increases and charging higher prices in coming months,” the survey said. Several policy makers including Vice Chair Richard Clarida have said central bankers may be able to begin discussing the appropriate timing of scaling back their bond-buying program at upcoming policy meetings. Patrick Harker, president of the Philadelphia Fed, said earlier on Wednesday that officials should get that debate underway. The report cited multiple anecdotes of companies struggling with higher input prices, supply chain disruptions and a shortage of workers. In St. Louis, for example, a group of restaurants held a job fair to fill more than 100 positions — but only a dozen applicants showed up. Leisure and hospitality firms saw increased business as vaccinated Americans sought to travel more frequently. In New York, hotel occupancy topped 50% for the first time since Covid-19 began and nightly room rates rose, while museums and restaurants saw a rebound. The FOMC has committed to only begin scaling back the $120 billion monthly pace of its asset purchases after there’s “substantial further progress” on inflation and employment. U.S. central bankers will get a fresh update on the status of the labor market on Friday. The May employment report is expected to show the addition of 653,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 5.9%, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. U.S. consumer prices showed hotter-than-expected inflationary pressures in April. Fed officials have largely written them off as owing to transitory factors associated with supply-chain bottlenecks and the reopening of service industries as the pandemic recedes. The Fed’s forecasts released in March showed officials don’t expect to raise interest rates from near zero before the end of 2023, even as they sharply upgraded projections for growth and employment this year.

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Fed far from goals, but seeing progress – Brainard

WASHINGTON, June 1 (Reuters) – The United States is making progress towards the Fed’s maximum employment and 2% inflation goals, but the depth of the remaining problem still requires the central bank not jump the gun in starting to tighten monetary policy, Fed Governor Lael Brainard said on Tuesday. “While we are far from our goals today, we are seeing welcome progress, and I expect to see further progress,” Brainard said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Economic Club of New York. But “jobs are down by between 8 and 10 million compared with the level we would have seen in the absence of the pandemic. And it will be important to see sustained progress on inflation,” not just a temporary jump. Some of the factors fueling current strong growth, including fiscal spending and the rush by households to take advantage of a broader economic reopening, are likely to fade over time, Brainard noted, another reason the Fed should not pull back too soon. “Remaining steady in our outcomes-based approach during the transitory reopening surge will help ensure the economic momentum that will be needed,” to make sure inflation hits and stays at the Fed’s target, and people have as much time as possible to restart their old jobs or find new ones, she said. The Fed is approaching a critical few months as it tries to read an economy progressing through the unparalleled moment of restarting after a pandemic. What are difficult judgments in normal times — assessing the path of inflation or assessing what employment metrics are most meaningful — have become even more complex in an environment where consumption and work patterns have been upended, and may have been changed permanently by the historic health crisis. How those questions are resolved will determine when the Fed begins to reduce its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases, and then eventually raises interest rates from the current near zero level. The Fed appears to be edging towards the start of that discussion. A key bit of information will come on Friday when new employment data will show whether hiring picked up in May after a weaker-than-expected April. Another poor outcome won’t necessarily dim faith in the recovery, only emphasize how hard it is to restart a $20 trillion economy. Brainard has been among the stronger voices arguing to wait on any policy change to be sure the recovery won’t slip, but herself made a revision in her language on Tuesday. While saying policy should remain steady, she did not repeat her call for the Fed to be “patient” before making any changes, a word often used to push policy debates far down the road. The fact that prices are currently being driven higher by things like unexpected computer chip shortages and a rush by consumers to buy used cars is all the more reason to wait — as is the uncertainty over why people seem hesitant to take jobs. Some of that data “noise” will ease by the fall, Brainard said. While she said she would be “attentive” to signs of higher inflation, she cautioned also against “preemptive tightening” that could deprive people of jobs.

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India’s COVID cases plummet after hydroxychloroquine, ivermectin use

On May 17, the New York Times reported that the coronavirus crisis was so severe in India, with about 23 million infections confirmed, that the country was accounting for more than half of the world’s daily COVID-19 cases. The same day, The Gateway Pundit posted a story suggesting that two drugs — both of which have drawn warnings from U.S. and global public health officials not to be used for COVID-19 — were having dramatic effects in India. The headline, widely shared on Facebook, read: “Elites Worried: COVID Cases in India Plummet After Government Promotes Ivermectin and Hydroxychloroquine Use.” Daily COVID-19 cases in India decreased in the days before May 17 — but only after a nearly vertical rise that started in April and peaked May 8. The Indian government has recommended limited use of the two drugs for COVID-19, but there is no evidence that their use led to the drop in cases. Neither drug is approved in the U.S. for COVID-19. And both the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the World Health Organization recommend against using them to prevent or treat COVID-19 infection. The Gateway Pundit article links to another article that links to revised guidelines issued April 28 by India’s Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. The guidelines, for “home isolation of mild/asymptomatic COVID-19 cases,” recommends considering ivermectin as treatment for those patients, and says people in close contact with those patients should take hydroxychloroquine as a prevention “as per protocol and as prescribed by the treating medical officer.” Confirmed new COVID-19 cases in India declined in the days before the article was posted, based on a seven-day rolling average — but only after reaching a peak following a sharp increase that started in April. Many experts caution that the Indian government’s official tallies of confirmed cases likely vastly underestimate the actual infection figures because testing remains limited and the volume of cases has crippled the health care system in some areas. So the actual extent of the decline is not clear. Hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin are being widely used in India for COVID-19, according to news reports. But there is no evidence they led to the recent decline in confirmed cases, given the lack of clear scientific evidence that they are effective at all in prevention or treatment. The government’s new guidelines don’t give a rationale for the recommendations. They were issued several days after a research paper was published that said “results from numerous controlled prophylaxis trials,” including some done in India, “report significantly reduced risks of contracting COVID-19 with the regular use of ivermectin.” Doctors in India admitted to have prescribed the drug under compulsion, peer pressure or on patient’s demand, according to one news report . The health minister in Goa was quoted as saying ivermectin does not prevent a COVID-19 infection, but helps in reducing the severity of the disease. Hydroxychloroquine has been in use much longer. In June 2020, a task force of India’s health ministry recommended that frontline health care workers take it to prevent COVID-19 infection. According to the journal Nature, the task force cited three new studies conducted by government agencies, only one of which had been published, that the task force said showed it can prevent infection.

The Gateway Pundit claimed: “COVID cases in India plummet after government promotes ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine use.”

COVID-19 cases in India dropped in mid-May only after a nearly vertical spike in cases over the previous several weeks. The Indian government has given limited recommendations for using the two drugs in connection with mild COVID-19 cases.