WASHINGTON: The United States has administered 157,606,463 doses of COVID-19 vaccines in the country as of Friday (Apr 2) morning and distributed 204,719,335 doses, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. The tally is for Moderna, Pfizer-BioNTech, and Johnson & Johnson’s vaccines as of 6:00am ET on Friday, the agency said. The agency said 101,804,762 people had received at least one dose while 57,984,785 people are fully vaccinated as of Friday. A total of 7,735,342 vaccine doses have been administered in long-term care facilities, the agency said. More than 100 MILLION Americans – one third of the adults – have received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine The US has officially vaccinated 100 million Americans with one or more dose of COVID-19 shots That means about a third of American adults have or will soon have some degree of protection against COVID-19 About 17.5% of Americans are now fully vaccinated against the disease CDC said Friday fully vaccinated Americans can safely travel domestically or internationally without testing or before departure or quarantining upon arrival.
NOT OVER YET Covid ‘super mutation’ may cause ‘devastating’ new outbreak & beat vaccines if we leave lockdown too soon, experts warn
COVID could mutate into a new super variant which could beat vaccines, make people sicker and reinfect victims in a devastating new outbreak, leading experts have warned.
COVID could mutate into a new super variant which could beat vaccines, make people sicker and reinfect victims in a devastating new outbreak, leading experts have warned. Scientists told The Sun Online about the need to vaccinate as many people as possible and stick to the lockdown rules as it is feared the rapidly changing virus could overwhelm our current arsenal of vaccines. The experts hammered home the need to rob Covid of the rapid person-to-person transmission which helps it develop mutations. And they warned possible new variants in the future could make people sicker and re-infect people who had already developed antibodies in a “very, very scary” new outbreak. It comes as Prime Minister Boris Johnson pleaded with Brits to stick to the rules as we go into the long weekend for Easter so the UK can keep to its plan to unlock totally by June. Hot weather earlier this week already saw thronging parks and beaches amid fears it could trigger a new wave despite months of lockdown pain finally leading to plunge cases. Covid variants and mutations have been popping up around the world – with various tweaks appearing to make it more transmissible. Fears have loomed for months that a mutant Covid variant could become significantly more deadly. Meanwhile, scientists in India claimed they have identified a new variant that carries two mutations. And variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil contain the E484K mutation, which is thought to be make the bug evade vaccines.
Studies so far have shown the Pfizer and AstraZeneca jabs do work against current known variants. It comes amid fears the E484K mutation could make them slightly less effective. The latest results from Pfizer show the vaccine does protect against the South African strain, raising hopes the same will be true for the Brazil variant.
The best ways to avoid this are to vaccinate as many as we can – and reduce transmission – and to stay in lockdown until as many as we can are vaccinated
Dr Tony Lockett
Dr Tony Lockett, from King’s College London’s Institute of Pharmaceutical Science, told The Sun Online about the prospect of a devastating new mutation – and urged Brits to stick to the rules. He said: “The effect – well it could be devastating – much worse than the original as younger people could become sicker and those who have had the virus get reinfected with the new strain “Its really very scary.” It comes as it was warned coronavirus mutations could render vaccines redundant in less than one year, according to a survey of epidemiologists by The People’s Vaccine Alliance. Dr Lockett explained some mutations arise when the virus infects people who cannot beat it with their immune system. The expert added: “Uncontrolled proliferation leads to the virus replicating more actively and hence mutation is more likely. “Patients with poor immune systems are therefore are a possible source of mutations.” He went on: “The causes of mutations are therefore allowing vulnerable subjects to get exposed. “The best ways to avoid this are to vaccinate as many as we can – and reduce transmission – and to stay in lockdown until as many as we can are vaccinated. “As Chris Whitty has indicated speeding the lockdown release will lead to more transmission and so more likely mutants – or existing mutants spreading – so the mutations are fed by meeting up and not getting vaccinated.”
[Mutations] are already on the way to becoming immune to our current vaccines.
Harvard Professor Dr William Hannage explained it is key to stop the new variants before they can get a foothold as it stops the spread which fuels the mutations. He told The Sun Online: “At the moment there is a lot of concern around E484K, a mutation in the spike protein which is thought to help the virus sidestep immunity from prior infection and is found in several of the variants. “While it looks like vaccines should still offer protection, at least from severe disease, this is one to watch. “It is why the government has been so keen to stop B.1.351 (the South African variant) from getting a toehold in the UK, because one of the mutations characterizing that variant is E484K. “There are a few others as well which make antibody treatments less effective.” Scientists are already working on tweaked vaccines to help deal with new mutations in future, much like the flu vaccine which is altered every year. Ravi Gupta, a professor of Clinical Microbiology at the Cambridge Institute for Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease said: “(Mutations) are already on the way to becoming immune to our current vaccines. “For example, the AstraZeneca study did not do well against the South African strain. “The virus is already on its way to becoming resistant to what we have at the moment. There’s evidence the same mutations are cropping up again and again. “For example, the Brazil and South African variants have this E484K mutation that really makes it hard for our antibodies to neutralise and stop the virus from causing infection.” There has been growing concern over the spread of South African and Brazilian variants of coronavirus in Europe as a third wave of Covid-19 sweeps across the continent. A string of countries have gone back into lockdown or tightened up measures again in response to spiking infection rates. Speaking in a video on social media this morning, the Mr Johnson isued a warning to anyone planning to see loved ones for the first time in months over Easter. He said the country is “not yet” at the stage where families and friends can meet inside, even if they have been vaccinated. Mr Johnson added: “We’re very much in a world where you can meet friends and family outdoors under the rule of six or two households. “And even though friends and family members may be vaccinated, the vaccines are not giving 100 per cent protection and that’s why we just need to be cautious. “We don’t think they entirely reduce or remove the risk of transmission.”
US nonfarm payrolls up by 916,000 in March
March unemployment rate falls to 6%
- Nonfarm payrolls handily topped Wall Street estimates, rising 916K in March, the Labor Department reports, compared with economist forecasts for a rise of around 650K.
- The jobless rate dipped to 6% from 6.2%, in line with forecasts.
- The report will be welcome news to those on Wall Street hoping for economic data to start to show concrete results of a strong recovery after the success of the recovery trade in Q1.
- It’s the biggest number of jobs created since August.
- Revisions to the previous two months also added 156K jobs.
- Private sector jobs rose by 780K vs. expectations of 643K.
- Leisure and hospitality added 280K jobs, with 176K coming from food services and drinking places. Arts, entertainment and recreation added 64K jobs.
- Labor force participation was a bit of a concern, edging up barely to 61.5%.
- That’s “suggesting that labor supply may soon become the constraint on this recovery,” Julia Pollack, labor economist at ZipRecruiter, tweets.
- Average hours earnings fell unexpectedly by 0.1% for the month, compared with an expected rise of 0.1%. That could be driven by workers in more lower wage sectors being hired as areas continue to open up.
- Wage inflation still looks a long way off.
- The average hourly work week rose 0.3 hour to 34.9 hours, suggesting there employers are still pushing current workers for more. But that could bode well for job gains in future months as that hits a plateau.
- The numbers bode well for cyclical stocks to continue to outperform, but technology dominated this past week.
(Bloomberg) — U.S. employers added the most jobs in seven months with improvement across most industries in March, as more vaccinations and fewer business restrictions supercharged the labor market recovery. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 916,000 last month and February employment was revised up to a 468,000 gain, according to a Labor Department report Friday. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists was for a 660,000 rise. The unemployment rate fell to 6%.
© Bloomberg U.S. economy added 916,000 jobs in March, the most since August
Rising Covid-19 infections had severely restrained the labor market for months, but now more than two million Americans are getting vaccinated daily and economic activity is picking up. This also helps explain why the workforce participation rate edged up in March. What’s more, businesses have a clearer view of potential demand as a wave of stimulus-supported consumer spending is poised to wash over the nation’s service providers. Local and state government education employment increased by about 126,000, reflecting the return of more in-person learning at schools. “The end of the pandemic appears to be in sight as vaccine distribution accelerates, and the economic recovery looks like it’s champing at the bit,” Daniel Zhao, senior economist at Glassdoor, said in a note. “We may be looking at a bright summer with monthly gains of over a million jobs, getting us much closer to pre-pandemic employment.” While stronger sales and daily progress in the fight against the coronavirus will help bring the labor market closer to its pre-pandemic employment levels, a full recovery will take time. U.S. Treasury yields received a bump higher following the report, with the 10-year rate climbing as high as 1.69%, although it remained within around 2 basis points of its prior day close. U.S. stocks are closed Friday for a holiday.
The payroll figures showed broad-based gains across industries, led by a 280,000 surge in leisure and hospitality. Construction payrolls jumped 110,000 after dipping in February amid severe winter weather. Education employment also climbed as more schools reopened. Manufacturing employment increased by 53,000 last month, the biggest advance since September.
© Bloomberg Path to Recovery
The $1.9 trillion stimulus package signed last month by President Joe Biden should give an additional shot of adrenaline to hiring amid renewed support for businesses and individuals. Labor Department Secretary Marty Walsh called the jobs report “very encouraging,” in an interview on Bloomberg Television. But he said, “we still have a long way to go.” In addition, the sweeping infrastructure plan that Biden unveiled Wednesday will help to “reinvigorate labor” and the economy in the future, Walsh said. A report Thursday from the National Federation of Independent Business showed a record share of small-business owners in March said they had unfilled positions. That indicates employment will remain strong in coming months. Further, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has pledged the central bank will continue to support the economy with accommodative monetary policy, despite the recent uptrend in economic and employment data. Even with the sharp advance in March, payrolls remained 8.4 million below the pre-pandemic peak of about 152.5 million. “The recovery is far from complete,” Powell said at the House Financial Services Committee hearing on March 23. “As we have emphasized throughout the pandemic, the path of the economy continues to depend on the course of the virus.” The U-6 rate, also known as the underemployment rate, declined to 10.7% from 11.1%. It is often thought of as a more inclusive measure of unemployment than the headline figure because it also accounts for those who stopped looking for a job because they were discouraged about their prospects and those working part-time but desiring a full workweek. The participation rate, which is the share of the population that is either working or actively looking for work, improved to 61.5% last month from 61.4%. The so-called prime-age participation rate, or the participation rate among those ages 25-54, climbed as more women returned to the workforce. The report also showed the average workweek increased by 18 minutes to 34.9 hours, partly reflecting a bounce back from severe winter weather a month earlier. Unemployment rate declined for all races except Asian-AmericansJobless rate for Asian-Americans rose to 6% from 5.1%, reflecting both an increase in the number of people entering the labor force and more unemployed. Black unemployment rate fell to 9.6%, still the highest among races. Jobless rate among Hispanics fell to 7.9%; unemployment rate for Whites dropped to 5.4%.
ADP: US private payrolls rise by 517,000 in March
The number of jobs in the United States private sector rose by 517,000 in March compared to the previous month, below analyst expectations, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Wednesday. Employment in midsized businesses contributed the most to the growth having added 188,000 jobs this month, while small companies hired 174,000. Meanwhile, large businesses added 155,000 jobs. Jobs growth in the service-providing sector accounted for most of the gains in March at 437,000 new jobs, a majority of them in the leisure and hospitality industries. “We saw marked improvement in March’s labor market data, reporting the strongest gain since September 2020,” chief economist at ADP Nela Richardson said.
U.S. private employers added back more than half a million jobs in March for the best gain since September, according to a report from ADP on Wednesday. However, job growth still slightly missed expectations, even as February’s inclement weather abated and the domestic vaccination program picked up steam. Private payrolls grew by 517,000 in March, ADP said in its closely watched monthly report.
This followed a revised gain of 176,000 in February, up from the 117,000 previously reported. Consensus economists were looking for domestic private employers to bring back 550,000 jobs during the month, according to Bloomberg data.The report was “mildly disappointing,” Pantheon Macroeconomics economist Ian Shepherdson said in an email Wednesday morning. However, he noted that it does not change the “improving” big picture for the trajectory of the U.S. economy. “This report is nothing more than a snapshot of the labor market in early March compared to early February. It tell us nothing about the likely path of payrolls as the economy fully reopens over the next couple months,” Shepherdson said. “We expect 1M-plus payrolls in April, and then substantially bigger increases in May and June.” In March, the services sector again handily led the way in recovering jobs, with service-providing payrolls climbing by 437,000. Leisure and hospitality industries made the largest advances, with payrolls rising by 169,000. Trade, transportation and utilities jobs also rose by 92,000, and professional and business services jobs rose by 83,000. The goods-producing sector also posted net private payroll gains in March, with these increasing by 80,000. Construction and manufacturing jobs rose by 32,000 and 49,000, respectively, though mining positions edged lower by 1,000. Heading into Wednesday’s report, more timely data on the state of the U.S. labor market hinted at an upturn in employment at the beginning of spring. New weekly jobless claims fell to a pandemic-era low last week, as the number of those newly unemployed fell by the most in seven months. Plus, the Conference Board’s latest report this week showed that consumer confidence picked up to a one-year high in March, with stronger consumption trends and increased demand set to engender more hiring. ADP’s private payrolls report also sets the stage for the U.S. Labor Department’s “official” March jobs report due out on Friday. The ADP report has typically been an unreliable indicator of the results in the government report due to differences in survey methodology, with ADP only counting individuals on active payrolls during the survey period as employed, whereas the Labor Department includes those receiving paychecks during the survey period. Based on the latest consensus data from Bloomberg, Friday’s report will likely show that non-farm payrolls grew by 650,000 in March, or by the most in five months. The unemployment rate is expected to decline by 0.2 percentage points to a fresh pandemic-era low of 6.0%.
Analysis: China airfares rebound in potential rehearsal for global recovery
BEIJING/SYDNEY (Reuters) – Widely watched airfares in China are recovering to pre-pandemic levels as domestic tourists lead a patchy air travel recovery, scattering crumbs of hope to a shattered global travel sector. With international markets like Europe still in partial lockdown, the global tourism industry’s attention is riveted on China’s new travel patterns as it brings COVID-19 under control and lifts curbs on movement. The Chinese domestic market quietly overtook the once-dominant U.S. market in size during the pandemic, but multiple coronavirus outbreaks before last month’s Lunar New Year halted the rebound and could lead to first-quarter losses. Now, with temporary testing and quarantine restrictions once again lifted, average prices for an economy seat during the April 3-5 Qingming festival, or tomb-sweeping holiday, have rebounded to 96% of 2019 levels, according to data from Ctrip. Economy-class airfares for trips over the Labour Day holiday in early May have risen 11% compared with 2019 levels, says Ctrip, run by online travel giant Trip.com Group Ltd. “It seems like demand has really caught up with capacity once again and airlines are deciding discounts are no longer needed to stimulate demand,” said Luya You, transportation analyst at BOCOM International in Hong Kong. “I think the pent-up demand that everyone has been expecting is finally showing up in full force,” said You, adding she expects yields and revenues to reach normal by the second half. Over the last year, Chinese domestic capacity had risen faster than demand, depressing airfares as carriers sought to fill as many seats as possible. A return to fare growth is seen as a final step in the recovery. There are signs the United States, a close second in domestic capacity, is following a similar trajectory months behind China as vaccination rates rise, case numbers fall and airlines add more flights. Average round-trip U.S. domestic fares for May to August remain up to 20% lower than 2019 levels, but are up as much as 36% higher than 2020, online travel agent Hopper said.Europe, however, is bracing for a second lost summer in part because of a hobbled COVID-19 vaccine rollout and a heavy reliance on cross-border traffic. When travel restrictions are lifted, the European market should expect a “bloodbath” with low-cost airlines like Ryanair and Wizz Air competing to offer the lowest possible fares, CAPA Centre for Aviation Chairman Emeritus Peter Harbison said this month. In China, the Lunar New Year holiday is usually the busiest time for local airlines. But this year’s celebration was a wash-out for air travel, with capacity slashed and ticket prices plunging to five-year lows. Now, Chinese airlines are ramping up domestic capacity for the next few months, diverting aircraft from the largely closed international market. Chinese carriers are scheduled to operate 20.7% more domestic flights from April to October compared with 2019, according to flight master, a Chinese aviation data provider. China Eastern Airlines will overtake China Southern Airlines to operate the most domestic flights, while planned flights by Spring Airlines will surge by 62.25% from 2019 levels, the company said. Investors have noticed. Stock prices for the three biggest Chinese airlines have recouped pandemic-related losses. But all airlines are facing new headwinds from rising oil prices – exacerbated this week by a shipping blockage in the Suez Canal – and concerns over COVID-19 restrictions in international markets. Parash Jain, head of Asia Pacific transport research at HSBC, expects 2021 to be another loss-making year for the three biggest Chinese airlines and warns their shares already look like they have overshot. “What we’re seeing is the initial rebound in share prices has reflected the recovery in domestic market for now, with oil as a headwind, with foreign exchange no longer a tailwind and the rest of the world not favourable,” he said.
Vaccines appear effective vs New York virus variant; super-spreader events drive variants
US closes mostly higher after Biden’s presser
US stocks ended higher as President Joe Biden held his first presidential conference and as weekly jobless claims slumped to a one-year low. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6% to 32,619.48, the S&P 500 was also up 0.5% to 3,909.52 and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.1% higher to 12,977.68. Financials and industrials led the gainers, with the communication services and technology sectors the only decliners on Thursday. The US 10-year yield rose 1.62%. At a news conference held at the White House, US President Joe Biden on Thursday pledged 200 million COVID-19 vaccinations within the first 100 days in office, after the administration achieved its initial goal of 100 million shots on Friday, which was the 59th day of Biden’s term, according to CNBC. Initial jobless claims was 684,000 for the week ended March 20, a drop of 97,000 from the previous week’s filings. Analysts polled by Econoday expected 730,000 claims. The previous week was revised up by 11,000 to 781,000. The four-week moving average was 736,000, down 13,000 from the prior week’s revised rate. The US 10-year yield rose by 2.6 basis points to $1.64%, after declining earlier in the session. Fed could begin tapering its asset purchase program by rolling back Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities it has bought when the economy starts to make “substantial further progress toward our goals,” Powell was cited as saying in media reports. The West Texas Intermediate futures slumped by 4.5% to $58.42 due to worries Europe was facing a new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic even as Germany backed off from harsher measures in April, outweighing the potential impact on supply of a container ship blocking the Suez Canal. “The weak point in Europe remains around the vaccine rollout amid the rise in new virus cases and the tightening of restrictions… which likely means the mooted acceleration in Q2 may have to be pushed back by a quarter,” National Australian Bank director of economics and markets Tapas Strickland was cited as saying in a report from Reuters. In company news, Darden Restaurants (DRI) reported fiscal third-quarter earnings and sales that slid year-on-year but still topped Wall Street estimates. Shares jumped by 8.2%, the most on S&P 500. Nike (NKE) is facing social media furor and boycott in China after the company said it was concerned about reports of forced labor in, and connected to, the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region in China. Shares fell by 3.4%, the steepest decliner on the Dow.
In the precious metals markets, gold was down 0.4% to $1,728.20 an ounce, with silver down 0.3% to $25.16 an ounce.
Among energy ETFs, the United States Oil Fund fell 3.8% to $39.89 and the United States Natural Gas Fund was up 2% to $9.64. Among precious-metal funds, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF was down 0.2% to $32.24 and SPDR Gold Shares were down 0.4% to $161.78. The iShares Silver Trust was up 0.2% to $23.29.
United’s May flights to reach 52% of 2019 schedule
https://youtu.be/axdLu6L_-u4
(RTTNews) – As more travelers begin to plan long-awaited getaways with family and friends, United Airlines is kicking off summer vacation season with a robust May schedule that includes the addition of 26 new nonstop routes between Midwest cities such as Cleveland, Cincinnati and Milwaukee and popular vacation destinations such as Hilton Head, South Carolina; Pensacola, Florida; and Portland, Maine. The airline also plans to resume more than 20 domestic routes and will start new service between Orange County, California, and Honolulu.
Internationally, in May United will fly more than 100% of its pre-pandemic schedule to Latin America compared to what it operated in 2019, including more flights to Mexico, the Caribbean, Central America and South America.
The airline also plans to resume flights between Chicago and Tokyo Haneda, resume passenger flights between New York/Newark and Milan and Rome, and restart service between Chicago and Amsterdam. In total, United plans to operate 52% of its overall schedule compared to May 2019, whereas in May 2020 United operated 14% of its overall schedule compared to May 2019.
US in green premarket with COVID in focus
Major stock markets on Wall Street registered gains ahead of Thursday’s session as the coronavirus pandemic continued to loom over the United States economy. The latest news revealed AstraZeneca posted updated results of its vaccine’s interim analysis, saying that the jab is 76% effective in preventing the COVID-19. Meanwhile, billionaire philanthropist Bill Gates estimated the crisis should be over by the end of next year. The Dow Jones surged 0.34% or 110 points at 4:20 am ET, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 0.55%. At the same time, the S&P 500 climbed 0.38%. The euro stood 0.06% lower against the dollar to sell for 1.18063.
Bostic doesn’t see Fed raising rates before 2023
(Bloomberg) — A strong recovery from the Covid-19 recession is likely to prompt Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues to lift interest rates in 2023, but that isn’t going to show up in their forecasts this week, a survey showed. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News see two quarter-point hikes in 2023. But they also expect the U.S. central bank’s own forecast, released at the same time as its policy statement at 2 p.m. in Washington on Wednesday, will show the median Fed official projecting rates staying on hold near zero throughout that year. Such a result would match the Fed’s December projections, even though U.S. lawmakers have backed almost $3 trillion in fiscal stimulus since then, including $1.9 trillion that President Joe Biden signed into law on Thursday, which — together with accelerating vaccinations — is boosting the economic outlook. “The Fed is now probing the unknown as a powerful trio of massive fiscal stimulus, monetary support and pent-up demand impact an economy released by the widespread dissemination of vaccines,” economist Lynn Reaser of Point Loma Nazarene University said in a survey response The Federal Open Market Committee is almost certain to keep rates near zero and pledge to continue its asset purchases at the current $120 billion monthly pace at its second meeting of the year. Powell has repeatedly stressed that the U.S. labor market remains far from the Fed’s goal of full employment, making it too soon to discuss winding down Fed support as the world marks the one-year anniversary of the pandemic. Even so, three-quarters of the economists forecast the central bank will have to raise rates by the end of 2023, where the median respondent has estimated about 50 basis points of tightening. By contrast, the median in Bloomberg’s December survey had no change in rates until 2024 or later. “While the economic projections will change, we do not expect rate expectations to move much at all. In fact, while a few dots may drift higher on the dot plot, we expect the center of the Committee to hold the line in terms of not acknowledging any change in the exit timeline.” The committee, making its first quarterly economic forecasts of the year, will raise its estimates of 2021 growth and edge up the inflation call, while not bringing forward a winding down of asset purchases or interest-rate hikes, in the view of the 41 economists, who were surveyed March 5-10. The Fed’s closely watched forecasts are likely to show gross domestic product increasing 5.8% in 2021, the survey found, up from 4.2% in the Fed’s December projections. Inflation is seen slightly higher than three months ago, with the unemployment rate falling to 5.0% at year’s end, the same as in the December projections. The FOMC is likely to continue to forecast near-zero rates through 2023, though it’s a close call, with a third of economists surveyed looking for a median Fed projection of higher rates by then. In December, one official penciled in a quarter-point increase during 2022, with five seeing hikes in 2023. “Having a forecast of rising rates seems very unlikely when we are just beginning to discuss how much inflation will move up, for how long, how much the unemployment rate will drop,” said Nathaniel Karp, BBVA chief U.S. economist. “The Fed has to see it, feel it, not just dream about it.” A sharp rise in U.S. Treasury yields in the past month as economic-growth forecasts picked up has caught the eye of the central bank. Powell and others have attributed the increases to improving prospects and said they don’t appear to be troubling. The FOMC is unlikely to highlight the risk of tightening financial conditions in its statement or strengthen its forward guidance on interest rates or bond buying, the survey found. The committee has pledged to continue the current pace of asset purchases until there’s “substantial further progress” on employment and its 2% inflation goal. “The FOMC will remain in wait-and-see mode for the time being, with no major change in the statement, rate-hike timing, or inflation projections expected at this meeting,” said Scott Anderson, Bank of the West chief economist, in a survey response. Powell has said the economy isn’t close to achieving the necessary progress to trigger a shift in bond buying and that he will signal any tapering well in advance. That isn’t seen happening until 2022 in the view of a narrow majority of economists. Most of the surveyed economists also don’t expect any near-term change, such as a shift to buying long-term Treasuries. Even less likely would be altering the mix of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, or placing a numerical target on Treasury yields, known as yield-curve control, they said. Powell’s current term as chair is scheduled to end next February. His highly accommodative policies could win him a second stint, according to the economists. About three-quarters expect him to continue in the job, which is about the same finding in the prior survey. The central bank has occasionally made a technical change to its interest rate on excess reserves, which would not affect monetary policy. Most economists are not looking for a change in March, however.