With $1,400 stimulus checks set to hit bank balances, stocks could benefit

NEW YORK (Reuters) – A chunk of President Joe Biden’s coronavirus relief package is poised to end up in the stock market and could provide a boost for GameStop and other stocks embraced by individual investors active in online social media forums. The relief package, which is on track to be signed into law later this week, is set to provide $400 billion in direct payments of $1,400 per person, helping individuals earning less than $80,000 annually and couples making less than $160,000. The government should be able to start delivering checks almost immediately once Congress finalizes the bill and Biden signs it.

“I do think that you will find a lot of that stimulus money will end up in the market, and I think if anything it’s a bullish catalyst,” said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab.

A Deutsche Bank survey of 430 retail investors last month found that on average they plan to put 37% of any stimulus checks directly into equities. At that rate, the amount from the latest package that could go into stocks ranges from $25 billion, if only traders with online accounts spend money on stocks, to as much as $150 billion, if all stimulus recipients spend their checks in the market in the same proportion, according to Deutsche Bank strategist Parag Thatte.

U.S. equity funds have been seeing near-record inflows of about $15 billion a month, “so incremental flows stemming from stimulus payments can be sizable, especially if deployed quickly,” Thatte said in an email.

Despite a recent pullback in stocks, including a 10% correction in the tech-heavy Nasdaq, the benchmark S&P 500 is near record highs and has climbed more than 70% from lows during the throes of the pandemic in March 2020. If stimulus payments do flow into the stock market, they could end up disproportionately going to GameStop or other stocks favored by retail investors active on social media platforms. Frederick said that younger adults tend to be on the lower end of income brackets, and therefore more likely to be eligible to receive stimulus payments, and that younger investors are more inclined to invest in so-called “meme stocks.” Shares of GameStop were soaring to start the week, following news about the video game chain’s e-commerce strategy, while other stocks favored by retail investors on forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets also were rallying. There was some evidence of stimulus excitement among investors on social media platforms. On the popular WallStreetBets forum, an account called “IwantSpaceX” posted: “Lets get our Stimmy checks IN!”

The stimulus payments could add fuel to interest from individual investors that has already been rising, with the COVID-19 pandemic leaving Americans with more time in front of their computers or on their smartphones.

Goldman Sachs strategists recently raised their 2021 net equity demand estimate from households from $100 billion to $350 billion, reflecting “faster economic growth and higher interest rates than we had assumed previously, additional stimulus payments to individuals, and increased retail activity in early 2021.” “We expect Households will be the largest source of equity demand this year,” Goldman strategists said in a note.

Brokerage TD Ameritrade saw nearly 1.76 million retail accounts opened during January through September of 2020, a record amount for the company for the first nine months of a year.

“People have time, people have interest and now they are actually starting to understand what it is they are investing in,” said JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist at TD Ameritrade. “You have really started to see an interest from the individual investor in a way that we have never seen before.”

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OECD: World economy to surge 5.6% in 2021

Coronavirus vaccine rollouts and a huge US stimulus package have boosted economic growth expectations.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) sharply hiked its 2021 global growth forecast on Tuesday to 5.6%. The deployment of coronavirus vaccines and a huge US stimulus program have greatly improved the world’s economic prospects. Tuesday’s figure is an increase of 1.4% from the Paris-based organization’s December forecast. It said faster and more effective vaccination across the world is of critical importance. The outlook for global growth would be better than current projections if the production and distribution of vaccines accelerate as containment measures will be relaxed more rapidly. “World output is expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by mid-2021 but much will depend on the race between vaccines and emerging variants of the virus,” it stressed. The OECD said global gross domestic product (GDP) growth would be 4% in 2022. The US growth is expected to be 6.5% in 2021, partly reflecting the large-scale fiscal stimulus now planned with a sustained pace of vaccination. In the euro area, where the level of fiscal stimulus is lower and vaccine rollout slower, GDP is projected to increase 3.9% next year. The forecast for G20 countries was up 1.5 percentage points to 6.2% this year, the OECD said. Effective containment of the virus and regained dynamism of industrial activity created brighter prospects for the Asian-Pacific region. “In China, GDP growth is projected to be 7.8% this year; in Japan 2.7%; in Korea 3.3%; and in Australia 4.5%,” it said.

U.S. House will take up Senate’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus bill by Wednesday: Pelosi

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. House of Representatives will take up by Wednesday the Senate version of the sweeping $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package backed by President Joe Biden, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Monday. Closing in on final approval of one of the biggest U.S. anti-poverty measures since the 1960s, Democrats aim to enact the massive legislation by Sunday, when enhanced federal unemployment benefits are set to expire. The Senate passed its version of the bill after a marathon overnight vote on Saturday. The Senate version eliminated or pared back some provisions included in the House bill, which had increased the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour and extended expanded jobless assistance through Aug. 29. Now that it has passed the Senate, it must be approved again by the House before it can make its way to Biden’s desk and be signed into law. Pelosi told reporters at the Capitol that the timing of a vote on the House floor “depends on when we get the paper from the Senate.” “We’d take it up Wednesday morning at the latest,” she said. Like the Senate, Democrats hold a very narrow majority in the chamber, meaning they cannot withstand many votes against the bill. The first version of the bill passed in the House without a single Republican vote. Two moderate Democrats joined Republicans in voting against that version. One of them, Representative Kurt Schrader of Oregon, said on Monday he would now vote for the bill with the Senate changes. “My concerns remain on the size and scope of this bill but believe the Senate changes provide meaningful relief for Oregonians in need,” Schrader wrote on Facebook. “Funding for our local governments, small businesses, schools, families, healthcare providers and an extension on unemployment benefits will be a lifeline for many,” he said of the legislation. Republicans, who broadly supported coronavirus relief early in the pandemic, have criticized the price tag of the Biden relief package. On Friday, as the Senate vote was still under way, House Democratic lawmaker Bonnie Watson Coleman said she was “disgusted” by some of the changes in the Senate bill and questioned if she could support it. A spokesman for her office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. But Representative Pramila Jayapal, head of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, told reporters she thought members of the group would back the legislation, which she described as “phenomenal” and in keeping with most of its members’ priorities. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki praised the legislation at a news conference, saying that while there were some changes on the margins, it represented the “core” of what Biden originally proposed.

Top UK Scientist to Boris Johnson: Save COVID Lives With Ivermectin

Dr. Lawrie has provided a rapid review to validate the analysis of efficacy of Ivermectin provided by the Frontline Covid-19 Critical Care Alliance , based in the US. Its leading figures have recently given testimony to the National Institute of Health’s Covid-19 Treatment Panel In New York. In connection with her analysis of ivermectin she sent a letter to Health Secretary Mr. Hancock and other MP’s on 3 January and has so far received no reply.

In her letter to the Prime Minister Dr. Lawrie states,

“The good news is that we now have solid evidence of an effective treatment Covid-19. It is called ivermectin. Ivermectin is a very safe and effective anti-parasitic medication widely used in low and middle income countries to treat worms, lice and scabies in both adults and children. It has been around for decades and not only is it on the WHO list of essential medicines it is a Nobel Prize winning medicine due to its increasing usefulness across a range of illnesses.

Between Xmas and new year I independently reviewed 27 studies presented by the FLCCC as evidence of ivermectin effectiveness. The resulting evidence is consistent and unequivocal : ivermectin works well both in preventing covid infections and in preventing deaths at the same doses used to treat lice other parasitic infections.

I am very pleased to inform you that this evidence solidly substantiates the FLCCC’s recommendation that ivermectin should be adopted globally and systematically for the prevention and treatment of Covid-19. Because I know there is alot of fake news going about I would like to assure you that you can trust the integrity of my report because I am an experienced independent medical research consultant whose work is routinely used to underpin international clinical practice guidelines. In addition I have no conflict of interest and have received no funding for this report.

But most of all you can trust me because I am a medical doctor first and foremost with amoral duty to help people, to do no harm and to save lives.

Please may we start saving lives now.

Thank you very much for your help. Mr.Hancock’s office should have my details. ”

Yellen: $1.9T stimulus would relieve suffering of Americans

https://youtu.be/5Q3qbPO_cSc

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Friday that she hopes President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus stimulus package will help bring back full employment by 2022. Speaking with PBS NewsHour, Yellen said the U.S. needs to “go big” with coronavirus relief in order to help get the economy back on track to pre-pandemic levels. “It’s a big [stimulus] package, but I think that we need to go big now, and that we can afford to go big,” she said. “And the most important thing is to get our economy back on track and help people get their lives back, in order to make sure that this pandemic doesn’t permanently scar our work force. And I think this is what we need. I’m hopeful that, next year, with a package of this size, we can be back at full employment.” Yellen’s comments came after Friday’s announcement that the U.S. economy exceeded expectations by adding 379,000 new jobs in February. While Yellen said she was “pleased” with those numbers, she added that the unemployment rate is still running at about 10 percent. “When you think about the pace, although 379,000 jobs in one month, it sounds like a lot,” she said. “But, at that pace, it would take us more than two years to get back to full employment. And we’re — we want to make sure that our workers get back to full employment, the state we had in the economy before the pandemic struck, a lot sooner than that.” “The package that the president and his advisers put together that’s working its way through the Senate now was really geared to relieve the suffering of the American people,” she added. Biden’s stimulus package, called the American Rescue Plan, was passed by the House of Representatives on February 26 and has now been passed in the Senate. The package now goes back to the house where the Senate version of the bill is reconciled against the House version. It is expected to with little change.

Biden: Stimulus bill proves democracy can still work…….FREE MONEY FOR THE MASSES COMRADE!

United States President Joe Biden said on Saturday that the coronavirus stimulus bill, which was approved by the Senate earlier in the day, “proved that this government, this democracy, can still work.” He pointed out the bipartisan support the package received in opinion polls, although no Republican senators voted in favor of it. “Everything in this package is designed to relieve the suffering and to meet the most urgent needs of the nation and put us in a better position to prevail,” Biden stated. He added that the stimulus will create an estimated six million new jobs, increase the gross domestic product by a trillion dollars and “put our nation in a position to outcompete the rest of the world.”

Senate Passes Biden’s $1.9 Trillion Covid-19 Relief Bill: $1,400 Stimulus Checks, $300 Weekly Unemployment, Child Tax Credit And More Sarah Hansen Sarah HansenForbes Staff

Senate Democrats passed President Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan on Saturday afternoon in a 50-49 vote after a grueling all-night voting session, pushing the massive relief bill over a crucial hurdle on its way to becoming law over the objections of the Republican Party and setting up a major victory for Biden in the early days of his presidency. The legislation will authorize hundreds of billions of dollars in federal spending for vaccine distribution and virus testing, hospitals, state and local governments, schools and small businesses to combat the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and offset its economic toll.

The bill includes a third round of stimulus checks in the amount of $1,400 for eligible individuals, another tranche of enhanced federal unemployment benefits of $300 per week, a major expansion of the child tax credit, tax relief for canceled student loan debt and billions of dollars for rental and food assistance.

Provisions like those, which are designed to provide direct aid to American families struggling to stay afloat amid the slowdown, prompted Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) to predict that the legislation will be the “single largest anti-poverty bill in recent history.” Republicans widely oppose the package: they say it is too expensive, describe it as unnecessary given the pace of economic recovery and object to provisions they view as unrelated to the coronavirus crisis. Some economists and lawmakers have suggested the bill’s $1.9 trillion price tag could trigger dangerous inflation and destabilize the nascent economic recovery, but Biden’s White House and top Democrats have consistently said “big” spending is warranted given the sheer scale of the crisis. During a brutal legislative process called a “vote-a-rama” that dragged for more than 24 hours on Friday and Saturday, Democrats defeated a slew of GOP amendments to the bill, including a bid to replace the entire package with a $650 billion version instead and attempts to bar undocumented immigrants and incarcerated individuals from receiving stimulus checks. 9.5 million workers are still unemployed in the United States, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department, despite job growth that exceeded economists’ expectations in February. Democrats used a special legislative process called budget reconciliation to pass the bill with only a simple majority of votes rather than the usual 60 required to overcome a filibuster in the Senate. Since Democrats hold exactly 50 seats in that chamber (with Vice President Kamala Harris breaking a tie in their favor), they could not afford to lose a single vote. That razor thin majority prompted changes to previous versions of the bill in order to appease moderates within the caucus. After hours of fraught negotiations on Friday, Democratic leaders cut a deal with Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a conservative Democrat, to scale back the next round of enhanced federal unemployment benefits to $300 per week through September 6 rather than the $400 per week supplement many Democrats favored. They also scaled back eligibility requirements for the $1,400 stimulus checks—a major concession to moderates like Manchin who want to prevent high earning families from receiving federal relief they don’t need and aren’t likely to spend. The package will now be sent back to the House of Representatives so that chamber can approve the Senate’s changes. After that, President Biden will be able to sign the bill into law. Democratic leaders have repeatedly expressed confidence Biden will sign before March 14, when the enhanced federal unemployment insurance authorized by the last stimulus bill will expire and 11.4 million Americans will lose their benefits. If the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan is enacted, it will be the sixth federal rescue package signed into law since the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States last year. Whether the changes the Senate made to the bill will imperil its final passage in the House, where progressives were already bristling over the Senate’s decision to strike the minimum wage hike from the package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has said the chamber will “absolutely” pass the package without the $15 minimum wage.

Dow jumps over 500 points on stimulus optimism

Wall Street markets extended gains on Friday towards the end of the last session of the week as details of the $1.9 trillion stimulus bill were making headlines. Although the Senate had voted earlier to not add the $15 minimum wage to the relief package, US President Joe Biden said it is still a priority for him to make it happen.Dow Jones jumped 515 points or 1.67% at 2:59 pm ET, while Nasdaq 100 gained 212 points or 1.69% at the same time. S&P 500 added 67 point.

Fed’s Bullard: 10Y yield returning to pre-pandemic levels

The 10-year United States Treasury yield is now returning to the levels it last had six months before the coronavirus pandemic, as the economic outlook improves overall, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Friday. The better economic expectations are bringing real yields higher, he noted but also added that the 10-year yield level is still quite low. The 10-year yield hit highs last seen in October 2019 and was at 1.561%, rising by 1.1 basis points at 12:37 pm ET. Commenting on inflation, Bullard stated that he would support a 2% inflation target on a sustained basis.

Powell Confirms Fed to Maintain Easy-Money Policies

Powell Says Fed Plans to Keep Inflation Anchored at 2%
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell “there is no plan to raise interest rates until labor-market conditions are consistent with maximum employment and inflation is sustainably at 2%.”

WASHINGTON—Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated his intention to keep easy-money policies in place but provided no sign the central bank will seek to stem a recent rise in Treasury yields, prompting them to rise further. Stocks also sold off on Mr. Powell’s remarks Thursday during an interview at The Wall Street Journal Jobs Summit. The appearance came a week after a jump in Treasury yields driven by forecasts of stronger U.S. economic growth and inflation this year, among other factors. “Today we’re still a long way from our goals of maximum employment and inflation averaging 2% over time,” Mr. Powell said Thursday during the interview.The Covid-19 pandemic continues to upend the job market. Some analysts said his latest remarks did little to ease investor fears about rising bond yields.“The market was looking for some more reassurance and didn’t get it,” said Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI. Fed officials “don’t appear particularly concerned about the current level of yields, which in both real and nominal terms is significantly higher than it was two weeks ago.” The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose above 1.55% after Mr. Powell’s interview—its highest level since before the pandemic—up from 1.46% earlier Thursday and 0.92% at the beginning of the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 345.95 points, or 1.11%, to 30924.14 Thursday. The S&P 500 declined 51.25 points, or 1.34%, to 3768.47, the third consecutive session of declines. The Nasdaq Composite fell 274.28 points, or 2.11%, to 12723.47. Meanwhile, oil prices rose Thursday after OPEC and a Russia-led coalition of oil producers kept most of their production cuts in place, surprising traders who had expected the group to increase output. Mr. Powell’s remarks came at his last scheduled public event before Fed policy makers meet on March 16-17. He said the central bank will maintain ultra-low interest rates until its employment and inflation goals have been met, and will continue hefty asset purchases until “substantial further progress” has been made. Recent evidence suggests the labor market is improving, but slowly. The Labor Department said Thursday that filings for unemployment benefits, a proxy for layoffs, rose slightly to 745,000 in the week ended Feb. 27, down from 927,000 in early January but more than three times their pre-pandemic levels. Mr. Powell noted that the U.S. has about 10 million fewer jobs than before the pandemic and said, “It will take some time to get back to maximum employment.”The central bank has held its overnight federal-funds rate near zero since last March. It has sought to suppress longer-term rates by purchasing, since last June, at least $120 billion a month of Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities. As bond yields have risen, some investors have begun to speculate that the Fed could start to skew its asset purchases or holdings toward longer-dated instruments in order to keep borrowing costs low. Asked Thursday about the climb in long-term rates, Mr. Powell said it “was something that was notable and caught my attention.” But he signaled no imminent policy response from the central bank. “I would be concerned by disorderly conditions in markets or a persistent tightening in financial conditions that threatens the achievement of our goals,” Mr. Powell said Thursday. He added that the Fed is looking at “a broad range of financial conditions,” rather than a single measure. “If conditions do change materially, the [Fed’s rate-setting] committee is prepared to use the tools that it has to foster achievement of its goals,” Mr. Powell said. Mr. Powell said last week that the Fed doesn’t foresee lifting its benchmark fed-funds rate from near zero until three conditions have been met: a broad range of statistics indicate that the labor market is at maximum strength, inflation has hit its 2% target, and forecasters expect inflation to remain at that level or higher.

Mr. Powell said it’s “highly unlikely” that the Fed’s goal of maximum employment will be reached this year. But he was less clear about whether the economy could show enough improvement this year for the Fed to start reducing its monthly asset purchases.

“I’ve so far been able to not reduce it to an estimate of time. I mean, that will come, I think, when we can see that,” Mr. Powell said, referring to the standard that the Fed wants to meet before scaling back its asset purchases.