Wall Street higher in premarket on stimulus hopes

Major stock market indexes in the United States were higher in premarket trading on Thursday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that stimulus will be needed until the coronavirus pandemic ends. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden talked to his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping for the first time since entering the White House. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.16% at 4:38 am ET, the Nasdaq 100 increased by 0.39% at the same time and the S&P 500 was up by 0.29% at 4:39 am ET.

What CDC found about wearing 2 masks

A cloth mask worn over a surgical mask improves fit and could boost protection.

Fit matters when it comes to your mask protecting you against the virus that causes COVID-19, and layering a well-fitting cloth mask over a surgical mask is likely to prove beneficial, according to new findings released Wednesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The findings were not expected to lead to new mask recommendations by the CDC. The public health agency maintains that everyone age 2 and older should wear a face covering when outside their home. It also doesn’t change the recommendation that primarily medical workers in high-risk environments should rely on N95 masks, which act as a strong filter against any contaminants but is notably tougher to breathe in and withstand for long periods of time. Still, the experiment touches on some of the big questions Americans have on how best to protect themselves when mixing in public, such as grocery stores and airplanes. The research suggests that when a person “double masks” — wearing a polypropylene surgical mask with a cloth mask on top — and the people around them did the same, the risk of transmitting the virus falls more than 95%. Researchers, who used two mannequin-like forms to test exposure, found a similar benefit with tightening a single surgical mask around the ears to improve its fit. Using a hack known as a “knot and tuck,” the researchers ensured the surgical mask fits closely around the face without gaps. The benefit, though, fell to 80% if only one person wore the double mask and 60% if only one person knotted their surgical mask for a tighter fit.

Dr. John Brooks, chief medical officer for the CDC’s COVID-19 emergency response, said the research results suggest that combining the close fit of a cloth mask with the filtration of a surgical mask is a good option. It also makes the case that “community masking” — everyone wearing a mask and not just a few people — matters. “Universal masking is one of our most potent interventions to control the pandemic, we believe,” Brooks told ABC News in an interview. “When all of us mask, not only does it giving us some personal protection. But by each of us doing that, we’re protecting other people,” he added.

The CDC has struggled with its public message on masks. Early in the pandemic, health officials urged the public not to wear masks because of concerns about dire shortages for health care workers. They also believed the virus would behave like other respiratory viruses and mostly transmit when a person shows symptoms like a cough and fever. But after research showed the virus that causes COVID-19 was spreading at an alarming rate through some people who never had symptoms, the CDC in April 2020 abruptly shifted gears and began recommending the public wear cloth masks. By June 2020, the World Health Organization agreed that people should wear masks especially when social distancing is not possible.

In recent weeks, the CDC has been pressed on whether it should toughen its recommendation on masks because of new variants of the virus that make it more transmissible. One question was whether the CDC might embrace N95 masks for public use and try to boost production. There are still shortages of N95 masks.

But agency officials have declined to suggest specifically that Americans wear the tight-fitting N95s because — while highly effective — they are particularly difficult to wear for long periods of time because they are harder to breathe in. Also, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky has said wearing an N95 mask probably isn’t necessary in public places. “I think if everybody is wearing a mask, if you’re wearing it and six feet apart … you have enough protective effectiveness in the barriers of those two masks and the space between you that you probably don’t need it,” Walensky said Jan. 27 during a CNN Town Hall. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert and President Joe Biden’s chief medical adviser, has said people shouldn’t read too much into the evolving discussion on masks. Scientific experiments are likely to shed new light on what’s most effective, but the recommendation on face coverings remain the same. “The discussion is changing, not the goalposts,” Fauci told Fox News on Jan. 27, responding to a question about how many masks a person should wear. He later added: “You know what would be a good start? If everybody wears at least one mask. I think that would be important.”

“We want to communicate to the public that if you want to get more out of that mask, there’s a number of low-tech ways you can improve its performance,” Brooks said. Nick Note: Being the inventor of the “UGLY MASK” and P3 nanoparticle filter ULPA 15 I can tell you we have know for a long time the dangerous of the N95 coffee/ toilet paper filters. So noow they admit their filters are not working so well especially on the mutated strains.

Vaccine vs variant: Promising data in Israel’s race to defeat pandemic

JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel’s swift vaccination rollout has made it the largest real-world study of Pfizer Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine. Results are trickling in, and they are promising. More than half of eligible Israelis – about 3.5 million people – have now been fully or partially vaccinated. Older and at-risk groups, the first to be inoculated, are seeing a dramatic drop in illnesses. Among the first fully-vaccinated group there was a 53% reduction in new cases, a 39% decline in hospitalizations and a 31% drop in severe illnesses from mid-January until Feb. 6, said Eran Segal, data scientist at the Weizmann Institute of Science in Rehovot, Israel. In the same period, among people under age 60 who became eligible for shots later, new cases dropped 20% but hospitalizations and severe illness rose 15% and 29%, respectively. Reuters interviewed leading scientists in Israel and abroad, Israeli health officials, hospital heads and two of the country’s largest healthcare providers about what new data shows from the world’s most efficient vaccine rollout. The vaccine drive has provided a database offering insights into how effective the vaccines are outside of controlled clinical trials, and at what point countries might attain sought-after but elusive herd immunity. More will be known in two weeks, as teams analyse vaccine effectiveness in younger groups of Israelis, as well as targeted populations such as people with diabetes, cancer and pregnant women, among a patient base at least 10 times larger than those in clinical studies. “We need to have enough variety of people in that subgroup and enough follow-up time so you can make the right conclusions, and we are getting to that point,” said Ran Balicer, chief innovation officer of HMO Clalit, which covers more than half the Israeli population. Pfizer is monitoring the Israeli rollout on a weekly basis for insights that can be used around the world. As a small country with universal healthcare, advanced data capabilities and the promise of a swift rollout, Israel provided Pfizer with a unique opportunity to study the real-world impact of the vaccine developed with Germany’s BioNTech But the company said it remained “difficult to forecast the precise time when herd protection may start to manifest” because of many variables at play, including social distancing measures and the number of new infections generated by each case, known as the reproduction rate. Even Israel, in the vanguard of the global vaccine drive, has lowered expectations of emerging quickly from the pandemic because of soaring cases. A third national lockdown has struggled to contain transmission, attributed to the fast-spreading UK variant of the virus. On a positive note, the Pfizer/BioNTech shot appears to be effective against it. “We’ve so far identified the same 90% to 95% efficacy against the British strain,” said Hezi Levi, director-general of the Israeli Health Ministry. “It is still early though, because we have only now finished the first week after the second dose,” he said, adding: “It’s too early to say anything about the South African variant.” Israel began its vaccination programme Dec. 19 – the day after Hanukkah – after paying a premium for supplies of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. Four days later, the more contagious UK variant was detected in four people. While the vaccine is preventing illness in older people, the variant now makes up about 80% of new cases. Finding themselves in a race between the vaccine and the new variant, Israel began giving shots to those over 60 and gradually opened the programme to the rest of the population. Every detail was digitally tracked, down to in which arm the patient was jabbed and what vial it came from. One week after receiving the second Pfizer dose – the point at which full protection is expected to kick in – 254 out of 416,900 people were infected, according to Maccabi, a leading Israeli healthcare provider. Comparing this against an unvaccinated group revealed a vaccine efficacy of 91%, Maccabi said. By 22 days after full vaccination, no infections were recorded. Israeli experts are confident the vaccines rather than lockdown measures brought the numbers down, based on studying different cities, age groups and pre-vaccine lockdowns. The comparisons were “convincing in telling us this is the effect of the vaccination,” said Weizmann Institute’s Segal. With 80% of senior citizens partially or fully vaccinated, a more complete picture will begin to emerge as soon as this week. “And we do expect further decline in the overall cases and in the cases of severe morbidity,” said Balicer, of HMO Clalit. There may be early signs that vaccinations are tamping down virus transmission in addition to illness At Israel’s biggest COVID-19 testing centre, run by MyHeritage, researchers have tracked a significant decrease in the amount of virus infected people carry, known as cT value, among the most-vaccinated age groups. This suggests that even if vaccinated people get infected, they are less likely to infect others, said MyHeritage Chief Science Officer Yaniv Erlich. “The data so far is probably most clear from Israel. I do believe that these vaccines will reduce onward transmission,” said Stefan Baral, from Johns Hopkins School of Public Health in Maryland. It is unclear whether Israel will be able to keep up its world-leading vaccination pace. “When you vaccinate fast and a lot, you eventually get to the hardcore – those who are less willing or harder to reach,” said Boaz Lev, head of the Health Ministry’s advisory panel. The vaccination pace is seen even more crucial with the British variant’s rapid transmission. “In the race between the UK variant spreading and the vaccinations, the end result is that we are seeing a kind of plateau in terms of the severely ill,” said Segal. The big question is whether vaccines can eradicate the pandemic. Michal Linial, a professor of molecular biology and bioinformatics at Jerusalem’s Hebrew University, said data from past decades suggests viruses become endemic and seasonal. She predicted this coronavirus would become far less aggressive, perhaps requiring a booster shot within three years. “The virus is not going anywhere,” she concluded.

World shares hit fresh all-time highs; earnings and Fed in focus

LONDON (Reuters) – World shares rose to new all-time highs overnight and European indexes strengthened, with market sentiment generally upbeat on the prospect of fiscal stimulus and vaccine rollouts and ahead of a speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, was up 0.2% at 0833 GMT, having touched new peaks shortly before. Overnight, MSCI’s ex-Japan Asian shares index also broke above its previous high hit in January.. European indexes strengthened after a shaky start, with the STOXX 600 and London’s FTSE 100 both up 0.2%. The dollar slipped slightly against a basket of currencies, down 0.2% at a two-week low of 90.263. “The reflation rally continues and interestingly with the dollar now weakening which suggests inflows into Asia are being recycled,” wrote Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Asset Management in an emailed note. “Eventually, the reflation in commodities will start to affect real economic activity and create a negative feedback loop, especially oil,” he said. Oil prices rose overnight but steadied as European markets opened. Brent has risen for eight days in a row, the longest sustained run of gains since January 2019, while U.S. oil gained for seven days, the longest rally since February 2019. China’s consumer price index fell more than expected, but factory prices posted their first year-on-year rise in 12 months, suggesting gathering momentum in the industrial sector. up. Chinese stocks rose to multi-year highs on the last trading day before the week-long lunar new year holidays “China has been able to recover quickly because it controlled the pandemic quickly, which enabled it to fill the gap caused by production bottlenecks in countries where COVID-19 restrictions were still in place,” Marcin Adamczyk, head of emerging markets debt at NN Investment Partners, wrote in a note. U.S. President Joe Biden said on Tuesday he agreed with a proposal by Democratic lawmakers that would limit or phase out stimulus payments to higher-income individuals as part of his $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill. The U.S. government will begin shipping COVID-19 vaccines directly to community health centres next week, as part of Biden’s goal of administering 100 million doses of the vaccine in his first 100 days in office. Earnings also contributed to market optimism. Japan’s Toyota hiked its full-year earnings forecasts by 54% to a record $19 billion. Societe Generale beat profit forecasts for the fourth quarter, as did Dutch bank ABN Amro. After a slight pullback on Wall Street on Tuesday, S&P 500 futures pointed towards a stronger open, up 0.3%. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak in a webinar about the state of the U.S. labour market at 1900 GMT. “The Fed’s job in avoiding unwarranted moves higher in yields is about to get more difficult,” wrote Derek Halpenny, MUFG head of research for global markets EMEA, in a note to clients. “Tonight’s speech will need to be carefully balanced between an improving outlook due to COVID and continued caution given the high levels of uncertainty and the long road to achieving its new, higher inflation goal.” U.S. CPI data is also due later in the session. The 10-year treasury yield was little changed at 1.1534%, having dipped from a spike on Monday to its highest since March last year. In Europe, the benchmark 10-year German Bund yield was steady at -0.445%. Italian borrowing costs hit a one-month low on Tuesday as Mario Draghi made progress in his attempt to form a government. The euro was up 0.2% at $1.2137, its highest in 9 days. Elsewhere, Bitcoin was trading around $46,763 and Ethereum hit new record highs.

 

UK minister: “we don’t know” when international travel will resume

The key question could be when will we be able to travel, when will we be able to international travel. The answer is, we don’t know the answer to that question yet. It depends on both the level of vaccination here and critically elsewhere. And as I mentioned, I was just checking the figures this morning, we’ve done 13 million plus vaccinations, which is just more than the whole of the EU put together. So we’ll need to wait for other countries to catch up as well in order to be able to do that wider international unlock because we can only control the situation here.” “But I think the British public would expect a pretty strong action. Because we’re not talking now just about – oh, there’s a lot of coronavirus in that country and you might bring some more of it back when we already have plenty of it here. What we’re talking about now are the mutations, the variants, and that is a different matter because we don’t want to be in a situation where we later on discover that there’s a problem with the vaccines. For the time being I have to say getting vaccinated is the very best thing that people can do.”

Does the world need new COVID vaccines? ‘Jury is out’, Oxford’s Pollard says

LONDON (Reuters) – It is not yet clear whether the world needs a new set of vaccines to fight different variants of the novel coronavirus but scientists are working on new ones so there is no reason for alarm, the head of the Oxford Vaccine Group said on Tuesday. South Africa has paused a planned rollout of AstraZeneca’s vaccines after data showed it gave minimal protection against mild infection among young people from the dominant variant there, stoking fears of a much longer battle with the pathogen.

AstraZeneca and Oxford University aim to produce a next generation of vaccines that will protect against variants as soon as the autumn before the Northern Hemisphere winter, AstraZeneca’s research chief said this month.

“There are definitely new questions about variants that we’re going to be addressing. And one of those is: do we need new vaccines?,” Andrew Pollard, Chief Investigator on the Oxford vaccine trial, told BBC radio. “I think the jury is out on that at the moment, but all developers are preparing new vaccines so if we do need them, we’ll have them available to be able to protect people.” Vaccines are seen as the swiftest path out of the COVID-19 crisis which has killed 2.33 million people and turned normal life upside down for billions. Researchers from the University of Witwatersrand and the University of Oxford said in a prior-to-peer analysis that the AstraZeneca vaccine provided minimal protection against mild or moderate infection from the South African variant among young people. Protection against moderate-severe disease, hospitalisation or death could not be assessed in the study of around 2,000 volunteers who had a median age of 31 as the target population were at such low risk, the researchers said. “I think there’s clearly a risk of confidence in the way that people may perceive you. But as I say I don’t think that there is any reason for alarm today,” Pollard said. “The really important question is about severe disease and we didn’t study that in South Africa, because that wasn’t the point of that study, we were specifically asking questions about young adults.”

The so called South African variant, known by scientists as 20I/501Y.V2 or B.1.351, is the dominant one in South Africa and is circulating in 41 countries around the world including the United States.

Other major variants include the so-called UK variant, or 20I/501Y.V1, and the Brazilian variant known as P.1. An analysis of infections by the South African variant showed there was only a 22% lower risk of developing mild-to-moderate COVID-19 if vaccinated with the AstraZeneca shot versus those given a placebo. If vaccines do not work as effectively as hoped against new and emerging variants, the world could be facing a much longer – and more expensive – battle against the virus than previously thought. “As long as we have enough immunity to prevent severe disease, hospitalisations and death then we’re going to be fine in the future in the pandemic,” Pollard said. Pollard said the South African government was right to look at how it deployed the AstraZeneca vaccine because the original plan was to use it in young adults – particularly healthcare workers – who were not expected to get severe disease. “It needs a relook at how best to deploy the vaccine,” Pollard said.

US markets end on record highs as investors eye stimulus

Wall Street’s main indexes hit record highs today. US investors have made risky bets on hopes that a fiscal relief package would lead to a speedy economic recovery. Investors were keeping an eye on bitcoin as it rose again, with Elon Musk promising Tesla would soon take payment for its electric vehicles in the currency and revealing it had already bought $1.5 billion worth of it. Benchmark US Treasury yields surged to 11-month highs as the US fiscal stimulus was seen boosting economic growth and raising inflation more quickly than expected, and before the Treasury Department sells new longer-dated debt. The Reddit rally looks to be coming to a long-awaited end with Gamestop trading down nearly seven per cent to $59.11 while fellow meme stock AMC Entertainment plunged 11.2 per cent to $6.05 per share. Meanwhile, London markets started the week on the right foot, bringing the FTSE three-session losing streak to an end. The FTSE 100 by the close was up 0.7 per cent to 6,533. Investor sentiment has turned positiuve of a global economic recovery from the pandemic and renewed optimism over US stimulus plans. The FTSE 250 was up 0.1 per cent to 21,087, gaining for a sixth straight day. “The UK commodities are higher, which is tied into the hopes that a $1.9 trillion US stimulus package is going to passed without the help of Republicans. I think that is the underlying market driver,” said Connor Campbell, analyst at Spreadex. Elsewhere, Asian stock markets rose, buoyed by the growing pace of vaccine rollouts and falling rates of coronavirus infection. The Asian mood was upbeat as all major indexes clocked gains as shares hovered near record highs

Factbox: What we know about the South African variant of COVID-19

Feb 8 (Reuters) – South Africa halted the planned rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and Oxford University after data showed it gave minimal protection against mild infection from one variant of the virus found in the country.

* The variant was identified in December and is now the dominant variant in South Africa, responsible for 80%-90% of COVID-19 new cases.

* Scientists say it is different from other variants circulating in South Africa because it has multiple mutations in the important “spike” protein that the virus uses to infect human cells.

* The 501Y.V2 variant, part of the B.1.351 lineage, is about 53% more transmissible than earlier variants of the virus, research shows.

* South African scientists say there is no clear evidence that it is associated with more severe disease or worse outcomes. However, it does appear to spread faster than previous iterations.

* As of Jan. 27, it had been identified in 41 countries, according to the World Health Organization. Australia, China France, Japan and Switzerland are among the countries that have found cases.

* Drugmakers including Pfizer/BioNTech , Moderna, AstraZeneca are testing whether their vaccines protect against the variant.

Here is what the trials found:

ASTRAZENECA-OXFORD UNIVERSITY:

In an analysis, which has not been peer reviewed, the shot developed by the British partners provides minimal protection against mild-moderate COVID-19 infection from the B.1.351 coronavirus variant first identified in South Africa. (https://bit.ly/3aPLpSp)

The study was based on 2,026 volunteers who were on average 31 years old – half were given a placebo. Mild disease was defined as at least one symptom of COVID-19. Prior to widespread circulation of the more contagious variant, the vaccine was showing efficacy of around 75%, researchers said. In a later analysis based mostly on infections by the new variant, there was only a 22% lower risk of developing mild-to-moderate COVID-19 versus those given a placebo. Although researchers said the figure was not statistically significant, due to trial design, it is well below the benchmark of at least 50% regulators have set for vaccines to be considered effective against the virus. The study did not assess whether the vaccine helped prevent severe COVID-19 because it involved mostly relatively young adults not considered to be at high risk for serious illness. AstraZeneca said it believed its vaccine could protect against severe disease given that the neutralising antibody activity was equivalent to that of other COVID-19 vaccines that have demonstrated protection against severe disease. The British partners aim to produce a next generation of COVID-19 vaccines that will protect against variants as soon as the autumn.

REACTIONS SO FAR:

* Some scientists say it may be better to roll out the AstraZeneca shot in South Africa to provide some protection rather than waiting for the delivery of other shots.

Andrew Pollard, chief investigator on the Oxford vaccine trial, said the data confirms that the coronavirus will find ways to spread, but shots could help ease the toll on health care systems if they prevent severe disease.

* While it was only a small sample size and in low-risk volunteers, the data highlights the need to determine if the shot is effective in prevent more severe illness, the WHO said on Monday.

Additional studies are needed to confirm the optimal vaccination schedule, it said.

“What these results tell us is that we need to do everything we can to reduce circulation of the virus and delay mutations that may reduce the efficacy of existing vaccines,” it said.

“It also seems increasingly clear that manufacturers will have to adjust to the COVID-19 viral evolution, taking into account the latest variants for future booster shots.”

Emma Hodcroft, a researcher at the University of Bern: “If the vaccine is less effective, there would be a concern that any partial protection it may offer could allow mutations that confer an advantage by evading that immunity to rise to prominence, perhaps leading to variants that are completely escaped from vaccine-immunity.”

PFIZER-BIONTECH:

Preliminary data, which have yet to be peer reviewed and involve a small number of patients, show the vaccine may be less able to protect against infection with the South African variant of the virus.

NOVAVAX AND J&J:

Clinical trial data on COVID-19 vaccines developed by Novavax and Johnson & Johnson have found the South African coronavirus reduced their ability to protect against the disease.

Nasdaq, S&P close on record highs as House passes budget bill

  • US stocks gained on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 closing at record highs.
  • The gain was driven by continued progress on President Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus package.
  • A weaker than expected January jobs report could boost chances of Biden’s stimulus deal getting passed.

US stocks gained on Friday as a weaker than expected jobs report set the stage for a swift passage of President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 indexes closed at record highs. The US Senate approved a budget measure early Friday morning to enable the passage of a $1.9 trillion stimulus bill without Republican support. The approval, for which Vice President Kamala Harris cast the tiebreaking vote, came hours before the January jobs report missed analyst estimates. The US added just 49,000 jobs in January, well below the estimate for 105,000 new jobs. But the unemployment rate continued to decline, falling to 6.3% from 6.7%. Also supporting stocks on Friday was Johnson & Johnson’s submission of its single-dose COVID-19 vaccine data to the Food Drug Administration for emergency use authorization. The FDA could approve the vaccine in a matter of weeks, and Johnson & Johnson said it would supply the US with 100 million doses by the summer. GameStop and AMC Entertainment had small bounces on Friday after Robinhood removed all buying restrictions on the volatile stocks that were involved a short squeeze last week. Shares of Pinterest surged as much as 11% on Friday after the company reported earnings that beat analyst expectations. The social-media platform said it added 100 million users in 2020. The strong demand for Peloton bikes has led to extensive wait times for new customers, and the stock fell 7% after the company said it would invest $100 million to help shrink long wait times to more acceptable levels. The former baseball superstar Alex Rodriguez is betting that investor demand for special-purpose acquisition company initial public offerings will remain elevated in the 2021. Rodriguez filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission to form the Slam Corp. SPAC, which is seeking up to $575 million to search for a deal. Rodriguez will serve as the CEO. Oil prices rose. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped as much as 1.32% to $56.98 per barrel. Brent crude, oil’s international benchmark, gained 1.04%, going up to $59.44 per barrel at intraday highs.

Habitual use of vitamin D supplements and risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection

After adjustment for covariates, the habitual use of vitamin D supplements was significantly associated with a 34% lower risk of COVID-19 infection (OR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45–0.97; P = 0.034). Circulating vitamin D levels at baseline or genetically predicted vitamin D levels were not associated with the risk of COVID-19 infection. The association between the use of vitamin D supplements and the risk of COVID-19 infection did not vary according to the different levels of circulating or genetically predicted vitamin D (P-interactions = 0.75 and 0.74, respectively).