The Pandemic Informer

Waterford, in southeastern Ireland, epitomizes the country’s coronavirus conundrum. Why is there an increase in COVID-19 in a nation where about 92% of adults are fully vaccinated? A massive 99.5% of adults over the age of 18 in Co Waterford are double-jabbed. That’s thought to be one of the highest rates of any region anywhere in the world. But, according to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre, the county now tops the national infection league table, with a 14-day incidence rate of 1,294 per 100,000. Tom Gallagher can’t believe his native Waterford City is the current epicentre of Ireland’s fourth COVID wave. Earlier in the pandemic, he was nearly killed by the disease. Tom spent 66 days in the local hospital, including two stints on a ventilator in intensive care. His brother and sister also caught the disease. “I walk past the hospital all the time”, he tells Sky News. “I look up at it and just think…there are still people in there with this virus.” Tom now suffers from long COVID, and scans have shown his lungs are scarred from his bout with the disease. The 55-year-old agrees that almost everyone he knows in Waterford has been fully vaccinated, but thinks that that has led to a degree of behavioural complacency setting in.

As the Delta variant became the dominant strain of the coronavirus across the United States, all three COVID-19 vaccines available to Americans lost some of their protective power, with vaccine efficacy among a large group of veterans dropping between 35% and 85%, according to a new study. Researchers who scoured the records of nearly 800,000 U.S. veterans found that in early March, just as the Delta variant was gaining a toehold across American communities, the three vaccines were roughly equal in their ability to prevent infections.But over the next six months, that changed dramatically.

By the end of September, Moderna’s two-dose COVID-19 vaccine, measured as 89% effective in March, was only 58% effective.

The effectiveness of shots made by Pfizer and BioNTech, which also employed two doses, fell from 87% to 45% in the same period.

And most strikingly, the protective power of Johnson & Johnson’s single-dose vaccine plunged from 86% to just 13% over those six months. Continue reading “Study shows dramatic decline in effectiveness of all three COVID-19 vaccines over time”

LONDON/MILAN (Reuters) – Europe has become the epicentre of the pandemic again, prompting some governments to consider re-imposing unpopular lockdowns in the run-up to Christmas and stirring debate over whether vaccines alone are enough to tame COVID-19.

Europe accounts for more than half of the average 7-day infections globally and about half of latest deaths, according to a Reuters tally, the highest levels since April last year when the virus first swept into Italy. Continue reading “COVID-19’s epicentre again: Europe faces fresh reckoning”

Continue reading “Netherlands to go into partial lockdown…. Russia reports 40,123 new COVID cases, 1,235 deaths”

Thanksgiving air travel is on track to exceed pre-pandemic levels, signaling a busy holiday season for airlines, according to a new analysis. Bookings for Thanksgiving flights are up 78 percent from last year and 3.2 percent from 2019, according to data from Adobe Digital Insights, which tracked online reservations at major airlines through Nov. 7. “After a year where many were unable to see their friends and families for Thanksgiving, we are expecting busy airports this month,” said Vivek Pandya, lead analyst at Adobe Digital Insights. “The holiday uptick is also driving up prices online, and consumers should start thinking about Christmas travel pretty soon.” The analysis found that September and October bookings were 13 and 10 percent lower than pre-pandemic levels, respectively. But air travel has rebounded in recent weeks as COVID-19 cases decline. The surge of travelers will present a key test for airlines and airports, which have struggled with delays and cancellations this year amid workforce shortages and technical issues. Multiple airlines have cut down on their November schedule to reduce disruptions. Airlines are also expecting an influx of international travelers after the U.S. lifted its 18-month ban on international flights to the U.S. on Monday. Fully vaccinated international travelers can fly to the U.S. as long as they show proof of vaccination and a recent negative COVID-19 test.

Vermont reports higher than ever COVID-19 case rates, state health officials have been trying to understand why. How can a state that did so well during the first part of the pandemic — even garnering national recognition — be doing so much worse now? “There is not one simple answer,” said Vermont Health Commissioner Dr. Mark Levine during a news conference Tuesday. “But, there are clearly factors that have come together to create the situation that we’re in now. “Slowing the spread is critical right now to prevent Vermont’s hospitals from being overwhelmed with people sick with the virus, Levine said. He encouraged Vermonters to take the same preventative steps that have been preached throughout the pandemic: wearing masks, practicing physical distancing, staying home when sick and getting vaccinated. “There’s not one single solution to stop it,” Levine said. “We do need to live with it, taking the simple and common sense actions for protecting one another as much as we can.” Positive cases have been climbing in Vermont in recent weeks despite the state’s having one of the highest vaccination rates against the virus in the U.S. Cases rose last year around this time as well as people spent more time indoors, but the state still enjoyed one of the lowest case rates in the country then. Cases in Vermont have increased by about 55% over the last 14 days, according to a modeling report by Financial Regulation Commissioner Mike Pieciak. Some recent days have seen daily cases spike above 400 — the highest Vermont has seen since the beginning of the pandemic. Continue reading “Highly-vaccinated Vermont has more COVID-19 cases than ever. Why is this happening?”

TORONTO (Reuters) – Canada’s coronavirus epicenters are shifting from dense urban zones to more rural or remote areas that have lower vaccination rates and fewer public health resources. Some of those areas were spared in earlier waves of the pandemic and are now forced to contend with a widely spreading virulent strain of the coronavirus with fewer options at their disposal to deal with the surge. Canada has high overall vaccination rates but pockets of hesitancy allow the virus to spread. In Ontario, Canada’s most-populous province, the Sudbury health region about 250 miles (400 km) north of Toronto has tightened restrictions. Officials have brought back capacity limits in public spaces, requiring residents to mask and provide proof of vaccination. Its COVID-19 recent case rate, at 164.7 per 100,000 as of Monday, is by far the highest in the province. It has also seen positivity rates, the percentage of people tested for COVID-19 who test positive, spike to 4.43% as of Oct. 24. The provincial average that week was 1.56%. “Less dense, less urban areas were relatively spared in this pandemic but … I think we’re starting to see the non-urban wave of COVID starting,” said Zain Chagla, an infectious diseases physician at St. Joseph’s Healthcare in Hamilton, Ontario. Greater Sudbury has more than 160,000 people but less hospital capacity than the Toronto area.”What’s particularly worrisome is the number of cases and the rapid rise of cases combined with the fact that we’re seeing cases kind of all over,” including about a quarter with no identified source, said Penny Sutcliffe, medical officer of health for Public Health Sudbury and Districts. On Wednesday, Ontario paused plans to raise capacity limits at sites such as sex clubs “out of an abundance of caution.” Sutcliffe said the increased transmission in her region could be linked to both an easing of restrictions and widespread COVID-19 fatigue: “We’re all tired of the pandemic and tired of having to take precautions.” It is a fatigue felt elsewhere. Yukon declared a state of emergency this week after announcing 80 COVID-19 cases in three days, bringing the total active cases to 169 in the territory of 43,000 people. About 22.1% of Yukon’s population is indigenous, compared with the national average of about 5%. In Saskatchewan, the province’s far northwest region, which is home to multiple First Nations communities, had the highest COVID-19 infection rates this week. It also had the lowest vaccination rate as a percentage of the total population, government data showed. In Alberta, the province’s relatively rural northern region that includes the oil sands hub of Fort McMurray had the highest hospitalization rate and the highest case rate as of early November. This past summer, the Delta variant ran through crowded oil sands housing and a young population that did not see itself at risk of COVID-19, said Fort McMurray family doctor Raman Kumar. “There’s more a sense of rugged individualism where people don’t necessarily rely as much on the government.” Now, he said, he and his colleagues are tackling the “Three Cs” of vaccine hesitancy: quashing complacency and conspiracies and maximizing convenience. “If someone comes in for a prescription refill, it’s always a really good opportunity to mention to someone: ‘Hey, did you get your vaccine?'”

Bark, Bark, Bark

Europe starting to go into lockdowns just as the flying disease incubators have started up again. Bark, Bark, Bark.

AMSTERDAM (Reuters) – The main Dutch pandemic expert advisory panel recommended on Thursday imposing Western Europe’s first partial lockdown since the summer, putting pressure on the government to take drastic and unpopular action to fight a COVID-19 surge. Caretaker Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s government is expected to take a decision on Friday on new measures following the recommendation of the Outbreak Management Team, a panel of experts, broadcaster NOS reported. Among measures under consideration were the cancellation of events, closing theatres and cinemas, and earlier closing times for cafes and restaurants, the NOS report said. Schools would remain open. The government often, but not always, follows the panel’s recommendations. Lockdown has been considered unthinkable in many developed countries since vaccines were widely rolled out, even as infections have spiked to records. Countries such as Britain are relying on vaccine booster shots to increase immunity and avoid overwhelming their healthcare systems over the winter. The Netherlands has so far provided booster shots only to a small group of people with weak immune systems. Despite an adult vaccinate rate nearing 85%, hospitals in parts of the Netherlands have been forced to scale back regular care to treat coronavirus patients. Last week, the Netherlands re-introduced masks and expanded the list of venues that require a so-called “corona pass”, which demonstrates vaccination or a negative test result, to gain access. The Netherlands’ Institute for Health (RIVM) on Tuesday reported weekly cases were up 45% to 76,790, or more than 400 per 100,000 inhabitants. Continue reading “Dutch experts recommend Western Europe’s first lockdown since summer…. Germany sees more than 50,000 daily new cases for first time….Russia reports 40,759 new COVID cases, 1,237 deaths…. France entering fifth coronavirus wave…..BARK”