(Bloomberg) — Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the spread of the delta variant of Covid-19 could keep some Americans from looking for work, potentially harming the U.S. recovery. “I was very optimistic the fall would be a strong labor market with many of those Americans coming back to work. That’s still my base case scenario,” he said Sunday during an interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” “But if people are nervous about the delta variant, that could slow some of that labor market recovery and therefore be a drag on our economic recovery.” Fed officials took a step last week toward eventually scaling back their pandemic support for the U.S. economy. They held interest rates near zero and repeated a pledge made in December to maintain $120 billion in monthly asset purchases until “substantial further progress” was made on employment and inflation. But they also said that the economy had made progress toward these goals, and that policy makers would continue to assess progress at upcoming meetings. Economists took that as a clear signal they were leaning towards scaling back the bond buying later this year or early next, provided surging infection rates from the Delta variant of Covid-19 don’t stall the economy recovery. Kashkari, not a voter this year on the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, said they were not there yet. “We’re about a third of the way back from where the hole was in December, so we’ve made progress but we are still in a deep hole,” Kashkari said. “We have 7 to 9 million Americans who are still out of work that we need to get back into the job market.” His comments dovetailed with remarks on Friday evening from Fed Governor Lael Brainard, who said “employment has some distance to go” to meet that test, noting that millions of Americans still remain out of work.In contrast, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters earlier in the day that he wanted the central bank to decide in September to begin reducing its asset purchases.
UK finance minister presses for travel rules easing
LONDON, Aug 1 (Reuters) – Britain’s Finance Minister Rishi Sunak has pressed for an easing of travel restrictions to offer respite to the tourism sector amid concerns that the country is not reaping the benefit of its vaccination programme, the Sunday Times reported. Sunak had written to Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning of the impact that Britain’s strict border controls were having ahead a meeting of ministers on Thursday to consider changes, the newspaper said, citing a source familiar with the letter.The Treasury declined to comment. England last month lifted the requirement for fully vaccinated Britons returning from medium-risk countries to have to quarantine. Visitors from the EU and United States with the same status will also be exempt from Monday. However, travellers still have to take expensive tests before departure and shortly after arrival. Separately, the bosses of Britain’s biggest airlines and travel companies urged Transport Minister Grant Shapps to add more countries to the “green list” that have fewer restrictions. They said green status should increasingly become a default, given that nearly 90% of British adults had been given one vaccine and more than 70% had two, and domestic restrictions had eased. “On this basis there is no reason why, and it is essential, that much of Europe including the key volume markets, the U.S., Caribbean and other major markets, cannot turn green next week in time for the remainder of the summer peak,” bosses of Virgin Atlantic, easyJet, British Airways, Jet2.com, Loganair, Ryanair and TUI UK & Ireland said in a letter shared with media. They said a continued requirement for expensive COVID-19 tests would have a huge impact on aviation. “We have seen no evidence that this regime is necessary for fully vaccinated travellers or those from Green countries, or that effective, cheaper rapid tests cannot be used from higher risk destinations,” they said.
CDC leak, summary and full report
An internal report presented to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention indicates the Delta coronavirus variant is far more transmissible than older lineages, may cause more severe disease, and that when it causes breakthrough infections, may be as easily transmitted as when it infects unvaccinated people.
What the document shows:
- The slideshow dated Thursday and first obtained by The Washington Post, appears to provide some data backing CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky’s controversial decision on Tuesday to change the agency’s guidance on mask use.
- It says the Delta variant is about as transmissible as chickenpox, with each infected person, on average, infecting eight or nine others. The original lineage was about as transmissible as the common cold, with each infected person passing the virus to about two other people on average.
- And if vaccinated people get infected anyway, they have as much virus in their bodies as unvaccinated people. But vaccinated people are safer, the document indicates. It says vaccines reduce the risk of severe disease or death 10-fold and reduce the risk of infection three-fold.
- The CDC, the document advises, should “acknowledge the war has changed.” It recommends vaccine mandates and universal mask requirements.
How the CDC reacted:
- Walensky confirmed to CNN that the slideshow was presented to her at a noon briefing on Thursday. “I think people need to understand that we’re not crying wolf here. This is serious,” Walensky told CNN Thursday night. “It’s one of the most transmissible viruses we know about. Measles, chicken pox, this – they’re all up there,” she said.
- Walensky noted that the R0 for the Delta variant – a measure of its transmissibility – is estimated to be 5-9, meaning each infected person can be expected to infect 5-9 other people. “When you think about diseases that have an R0 of 8 or 9 – there aren’t that many.”
- Asked about the contents of the slide deck, Walensky said, “There weren’t any surprises. It was the synthesis of the data all in one place that was sobering.”
What comes next:
- The CDC is scheduled to publish additional data Friday that will back Walensky’s controversial decision to change guidance for fully vaccinated people. She said Tuesday the CDC was recommending that even fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors in places where transmission of the virus is sustained or high. The data behind an internal US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention document that suggests fully vaccinated people might spread the Delta variant at the same rate as unvaccinated people is, according to the Washington Post, based on a Covid-19 cluster that emerged from July 4 weekend festivities in Provincetown, Massachusetts. Alex Morse, Provincetown’s town manager, told CNN’s “New Day” that there are 112 active cases right now in the town, but the overall cluster number is more than 880 since July 1.
Vaccination by itself is not enough to stop the spread of Covid-19 variants, study finds
Vaccination alone won’t stop the rise of new variants and in fact could push the evolution of strains that evade their protection, researchers warned Friday. They said people need to wear masks and take other steps to prevent spread until almost everyone in a population has been vaccinated. “When most people are vaccinated, the vaccine-resistant strain has an advantage over the original strain,” Simon Rella of the Institute of Science and Technology Austria, who worked on the study, told reporters. “This means the vaccine resistant strain spreads through the population faster at a time when most people are vaccinated.”
The findings suggest that policymakers should resist the temptation to lift restrictions to celebrate or reward vaccination efforts. This is likely to be especially true with a more transmissible variant such as the Delta variant, said Fyodor Kondrashov, also of the Institute of Science and Technology Austria. “Generally, the more people are infected, the more the chances for vaccine resistance to emerge. So the more Delta is infectious, the more reason for concern,” Kondrashov told reporters. “By having a situation where you vaccinate everybody, a vaccine resistant mutant actually gains a selective advantage.” People should not complain, he said. “The individual who already vaccinated and putting on a mask should not think this is pointless but should think that there is a vaccine resistant strain running around,” he said.
The world is at risk of losing hard-won gains in fighting COVID-19
GENEVA, July 30 (Reuters) – The world is at risk of losing hard-won gains in fighting COVID-19 as the highly transmissible Delta variant spreads, but WHO-approved vaccines remain effective, the World Health Organization said on Friday.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has described the Delta variant of the coronavirus as being as transmissible as chickenpox and cautioned it could cause severe disease, the Washington Post said, citing an internal CDC document.
COVID-19 infections have increased by 80% over the past four weeks in most regions of the world, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said. Deaths in Africa – where only 1.5% of the population is vaccinated – rose by 80% over the same period. “Hard-won gains are in jeopardy or being lost, and health systems in many countries are being overwhelmed,” Tedros told a news conference. The Delta variant has been detected in 132 countries, becoming the dominant global strain, according to the WHO. “The vaccines that are currently approved by the WHO all provide significant protection against severe disease and hospitalisation from all the variants, including the Delta variant,” said WHO’s top emergency expert, Mike Ryan. “We are fighting the same virus but a virus that has become faster and better adapted to transmitting amongst us humans, that’s the change,” he said. Maria van Kerkhove, WHO technical lead on COVID-19, said the Delta variant was the most easily spread so far, about 50% more transmissible than ancestral strains of SARS-CoV-2 that first emerged in China in late 2019. Japan said on Friday it would expand states of emergency to three prefectures near Olympic host city Tokyo and the western prefecture of Osaka, as COVID-19 cases spike in the capital and around the country, overshadowing the Summer Games. Ryan noted that Tokyo had recorded more than 3,000 cases in the past 24 hours, among some 10,000 new infections in Japan. “The Olympics is a part of that overall context and the risk management that is place around the Olympics is extremely comprehensive,” he said.
Delta variant rampant in Asia; Tokyo, Thailand, Malaysia post record COVID infections
July 31 (Reuters) – The Olympics host city Tokyo, as well as Thailand and Malaysia, announced a record number of COVID-19 infections on Saturday, mostly driven by the highly transmissible Delta variant of the disease. Cases surged in Sydney as well, where police cordoned off the central business district to prevent a protest against a strict lockdown that will last until the end of August. Police closed train stations, banned taxis from dropping passengers off downtown and deployed 1,000 officers to set up checkpoints and to disperse groups. The government of New South Wales reported 210 new infections in Sydney and surrounding areas from the Delta variant outbreak. Tokyo’s metropolitan government announced a record number of 4,058 infections in the past 24 hours, topping 4,000 for the first time. Olympics organisers reported 21 new COVID-19 cases related to the Games, bringing the total to 241 since July 1. The record comes a day after Japan extended its state of emergency for Tokyo to the end of August, expanding it to three prefectures near Tokyo and the western prefecture of Osaka in light of the recent spike in infections. Olympics organisers said on Saturday they had revoked accreditation of a Games-related person or people for leaving the athletes’ village for sightseeing, a violation of measures imposed to hold the Olympics safely amid the pandemic. The organisers did not disclose how many people had their accreditation revoked, if the person or people involved were athletes, or when the violation took place. read more Malaysia, one of the hotspots of the disease, reported 17,786 coronavirus cases on Saturday, a record number of infections. More than 100 people gathered in the centre of the capital Kuala Lumpur, expressing dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the pandemic and calling on Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin to quit. Protesters carried black flags and held up placards that read “Kerajaan Gagal” (failed government) – a hashtag that has been popular on social media for months. Thailand reported a daily record of 18,912 new coronavirus infections, bringing the country’s total accumulated cases to 597,287. The country also reported 178 new deaths, also a daily record, taking total fatalities to 4,857. The government said the Delta variant accounted for more than 60% of the cases in the country and 80% of the cases in Bangkok. The Delta variant is not necessarily more lethal than other variants, but much more transmissible, Supakit Sirilak, the director-general of the Medical Science Department, told Reuters. China is also battling an outbreak of the Delta variant in the eastern city of Nanjing, traced to airport cleaners who worked on a flight from Russia. COVID-19 infections have increased by 80% over the past four weeks in most regions of the world, WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said on Friday. “Hard-won gains are in jeopardy or being lost, and health systems in many countries are being overwhelmed,” Tedros told a news conference. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control said the variant, first detected in India and now dominant across the globe, is as contagious as chickenpox and far more contagious than the common cold or flu. It can be passed on even by vaccinated people, and may cause more serious disease than earlier coronavirus strains.
CDC: 74% of recent COVID patients vaccinated…… Obviously vaccines are not enough
https://youtu.be/LgJSunRq14M
Of new COVID-19 cases on Cape Cod, 74% have been among fully vaccinated people, according to a report issued Friday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Testing indicated the delta variant of the virus accounted for 90% of specimens from 133 patients, the report indicated. New cases have been recorded in Barnstable County, particularly in Provincetown, this month. The CDC in its report said that 469 cases of COVID-19 have been associated with multiple summer events and large public gatherings in a town in Barnstable County. “Persons with COVID-19 reported attending densely packed indoor and outdoor events at venues that included bars, restaurants, guest houses, and rental homes,” the report read. On July 3, the state Department of Public Health reported a 14-day average COVID-19 incidence of zero cases per 100,000 persons per day in residents of the town in Barnstable County. By July 17, that average increased to 177 cases per 100,000 persons per day. Among the 469 cases in Massachusetts residents, 301 (87%) were male, with a median age of 42, the CDC said. Vaccines received by those with breakthrough infections were Pfizer-BioNTech (159; 46%), Moderna (131; 38%), and Janssen (56; 16%), the report indicated. The most common signs or symptoms of those with breakthrough cases were cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia and fever. Overall, 274 vaccinated patients with breakthrough infections were symptomatic. Among five patients who were hospitalized with the virus, four were fully vaccinated, the CDC said. No deaths were reported. As of Friday, Provincetown Town Manager Alex Morse said there have been 220 cases among town residents, including 103 active cases. Of the total cases, 73% are among vaccinated individuals and 89% are men with a median age of 39. The CDC suggested that jurisdictions consider prevention strategies like wearing masks in indoor public settings, particularly during large public gatherings. “The delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is highly transmissible,” the CDC report read, “vaccination is the most important strategy to prevent severe illness and death.”
War has changed’, CDC says, as Delta variant infectious as chickenpox
Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom, warned on Friday that the number of newly registered COVID-19 cases and deaths continues to climb in numerous countries across the globe. Commenting on new coronavirus variants, Dr. Tedros argued there will be more versions of the virus as long as the spreading lasts. “Hard-won gains in fighting COVID-19 are being lost,” he insisted at WHO’s press briefing. Dr. Tedros concluded by reiterating that the WHO’s goal remains to support every country to vaccinate at least 40% of its population by the end of the year and 70% by the middle of 2022.
COVID-19 cases, deaths continue to climb – WHO
Director-General of the World Health Organization, Tedros Adhanom, warned on Friday that the number of newly registered COVID-19 cases and deaths continues to climb in numerous countries across the globe. Commenting on new coronavirus variants, Dr. Tedros argued there will be more versions of the virus as long as the spreading lasts. “Hard-won gains in fighting COVID-19 are being lost,” he insisted at WHO’s press briefing. Dr. Tedros concluded by reiterating that the WHO’s goal remains to support every country to vaccinate at least 40% of its population by the end of the year and 70% by the middle of 2022.
EMERGENCY! EMERGENCY! CDC calls Delta strain as contagious as chickenpox EMERGENCY EMERGENCY
July 30 (Reuters) – The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has described the Delta variant of the coronavirus to be as contagious as chickenpox and could cause severe illness, the New York Times reported, citing an internal CDC document.
The variant was also more likely to break through protections afforded by the vaccines, the report said, adding that the agency’s reverse course on masking guidelines for fully vaccinated Americans on Tuesday was based on this document.
However, CDC’s figures show that the vaccines are highly effective in preventing serious illness, hospitalization and death in vaccinated people, the report said, citing experts.
New research showed the vaccinated people infected with the Delta variant carried tremendous amounts of the virus in the nose and throat, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky told the Times.
The Delta variant is more transmissible than the viruses that cause MERS, SARS, Ebola, the common cold, the seasonal flu and smallpox, the report said.
The immediate next step for the agency is to “acknowledge the war has changed,” the report cited the document as saying. CDC is expected to publish additional data on the variant on Friday, the NYT said.
Experts ask to see data behind CDC new mask policy
The agency on Thursday announced that fully vaccinated individuals can ditch their masks in most settings, but some public health experts raised concerns about how to prove vaccination. The CDC on Thursday announced that fully vaccinated individuals can ditch their masks and social distancing indoors and outdoors in most settings. Masks must still be worn “where required by federal, state, local, tribal, or territorial laws, rules, and regulations, including local business and workplace guidance,” according to the guidance. There are also exceptions for correctional facilities and homeless shelters, and people who are immune compromised should speak to their doctors before abandoning their masks. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky cited declining coronavirus cases, increasing vaccine supply and emerging data on the performance of vaccines as reasons for the guidance change. States including North Carolina, Michigan, Nevada, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Kentucky, Washington and Kansas all announced changes to their mandates following the CDC guidance. “Today is a great day,” North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper tweeted Thursday as he lifted most mandatory mask requirements for his state. “But the work is not yet done and people getting vaccinated will get it done. The CDC’s guidance affirms that getting vaccinated is the way through this. We can take this step today because the science shows our focus on getting people vaccinated is working.” But some public health experts were left with questions and concerns about unvaccinated people abandoning their masks. According to CDC data, just over 36% of Americans are fully vaccinated. “On one hand, people may feel more incentivized to get the vaccine if they see that by getting the vaccine, they no longer have to wear a mask and can resume pre-pandemic activities,” Rupali J. Limaye of Johns Hopkins University said in a statement. “On the other hand, it may not be enough of an incentive to get the vaccine, and may signal to people that they can go maskless while being unvaccinated, as there is no way to know who is vaccinated and who is not.” “This could lead to a situation where those that are unvaccinated may be maskless in settings where there are other unvaccinated individuals, leading to higher risk of exposure,” she continued. Leana Wen, a visiting professor at George Washington University Milken Institute School of Public Health, wrote in an opinion piece for The Washington Post that the CDC “has gone from one extreme to the other, from over-caution to throwing caution to the wind.” She said that the new guidance “would be very welcome if not for one big problem: There is no concurrent requirement for proof of vaccination.” Leading infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci acknowledged that “you’re going to be depending on people being honest enough to say whether they were vaccinated or not and responsible enough to be wearing … a mask, not only for their own protection but also for the protection of others.” The federal government has repeatedly said it will not require vaccine passports or similar certifications. But beyond concerns about putting trust in the public, questions swirled on the guidance. Could a fully vaccinated workforce go back to the office without wearing masks and social distancing? Should private businesses like grocery stores that currently implement mask mandates follow CDC guidance and shed the requirements for vaccinated people, or would that risk workers facing retaliation for implementing vaccine policing? The United Food and Commercial Workers, America’s largest union for front-line retail and grocery workers, criticized the guidance, calling it “confusing” and accusing the agency of failing “to consider how it will impact essential workers who face frequent exposure to individuals who are not vaccinated and refuse to wear masks.” Fauci told CNN that while some businesses might choose to require proof of vaccination, he does not suggest policing behaviors. “People feel very put upon if you are essentially judging them on the basis of whether they have been vaccinated,” Fauci added. “I think there is going to be a pushback against questioning somebody when they walk in.” And what about parents who are vaccinated who have young children who aren’t eligible for the shot yet – how will they convince the youngsters to keep their masks on as more and more people go without them? Fauci told CNN that children still need to wear masks “when they’re out there playing with their friends and, you know, particularly in an indoor situation.” Elementary school-aged children likely won’t be vaccinated until the end of the year, according to Fauci. That leaves parents to navigate starting the school year without vaccinations for their youngest kids, and both Walensky and Fauci have supported the idea of all schools holding in-person education five days a week by the fall.