Category: Breaking News

Posted on

Economist Stephen Roach says the US economy’s V-shaped recovery is ‘in tatters’ and the dollar could crash 20% this year

  • The US economy’s V-shaped recovery is “in tatters”, due to rising coronavirus cases and new restrictions, according to Yale economist and former Morgan Stanley Asia chair Stephen Roach.
  • Roach said the dollar could drop around 20% this year, thanks to the growing US budget deficit and next-to-zero interest rates at the Federal Reserve.
  • The former bank chair said the stock markets ‘do not seem to care’ about anything other than stimulus from the Fed.

The US economy’s recovery is in “tatters” after the latest rise in coronavirus cases and new restrictions, while the dollar could fall another 20% amid low interest rates and a yawning budget deficit, according to Yale economist and former bank chairman Stephen Roach. “The economy is slipping right before our very eyes,” Roach said in an interview, yet “the markets do not seem to care.” Roach pointed to recent economic data such as falling retail sales in November, a drop in consumer confidence and rising unemployment in December. The former chair of Morgan Stanley Asia said a “double-dip” recession is now likely. Explaining the recent rise in US stocks to all-time highs, Roach said investors were almost solely focused on Federal Reserve monetary policy.

“The markets are focusing really on one thing and that is the Federal Reserve holding interest rates at zero, no matter what happens,” he said.

“That gives the markets conviction to look through literally anything, from political insurrection to the likelihood of a double-dip, to a V-shaped recovery that’s in tatters. The markets do not seem to care.” Markets have also focused on the likelihood of more stimulus under President-elect Joe Biden and the Democrats, who last week won elections that will give them control of Congress. The Democrat victories in Georgia allowed markets to shrug off unprecedented scenes in Washington DC, where pro-Donald Trump protesters stormed the Capitol Building last week. Roach said more stimulus is “appropriate given the severe economic distress that continues to persist”. Yet he said there would be “consequences”. A higher budget deficit would lower domestic savings and increase the current account deficit, Roach argued, combining with ultra-loose monetary policy to hit the dollar. “I do see another 15 to 20% downside to the broad dollar index over the course of this year,” Roach said. The dollar has fallen more than 7% against a basket of currencies since January 2020. He said this reflected “not just the current account deficit, but the strength of the euro”. Roach added that, “most importantly”, the Fed holding interest rates at zero would forestall “a normal interest-rate hike that might otherwise boost the dollar”. However, the dollar has climbed more than 0.5% so far this year, taking the dollar index to 90.44. Rising bond yields and the prospects of higher growth have made the currency and US assets more attractive to non-US investors. Meanwhile, the division between the health of the US economy and markets continues to widen. Markets are riding the wave of monetary and fiscal stimulus and looking ahead to the middle of the year, when they hope vaccines will have allowed some semblance of normal life to return. Roach said stimulus may cause inflation “down the road”. But he said: “With aggregate demand remaining weak in the US, I think it’s going to take a while before that shows up.”

Posted on

Schumer: More stimulus priority in new Senate

Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) said on that passing legislation to provide $2,000 stimulus checks will be one of the first orders of business once Democrats take control of the chamber on Jan. 20. “One of the first things I want to do … is deliver the $2,000 checks to the American families, The Senate appears headed to a 50-50 split, with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris poised to cast any tie-breaking votes. Schumer declined to provide any details on how he would try to pass legislation for the $2,000 checks, such as whether it would be a stand-alone bill, part of a broader coronavirus relief package or the first measure called up for a vote. Spokespeople for Schumer didn’t immediately respond to a question about whether the leader wants to increase the stimulus checks under the latest stimulus deal from $600 to $2,000, or if the legislation he will offer would be for new checks in the amount of $2,000. Unless Democrats are going to try to pass the checks through reconciliation – a budget maneuver that allows them to avoid a 60-vote procedural hurdle – they will need support from at least 10 Republicans in order to pass a bill providing additional direct payments.

The pledge by Schumer comes after Senate Republicans blocked multiple attempts to boost the amount of the stimulus payments included in the $2.3 trillion deal that funded the government and provided a new round of coronavirus relief. The idea of increasing the checks has support from several GOP senators but it has also drawn fierce backlash from much of the caucus over concerns about spending or that the money does not go to those most directly affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) earlier this month addressed the issue by referencing Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). “While this huge new aid package takes effect, a bipartisan caucus in both chambers is not keen to let Speaker Pelosi and Senator Sanders to have universal cash giveaways regardless of needs,” McConnell said on the Senate floor.

 

Posted on

Another Chinese city goes into lockdown amid new COVID-19 threat

BEIJING (Reuters) – China imposed new coronavirus curbs in areas near Beijing on Tuesday, putting 4.9 million people in Langfang city under lockdown as new infections raised worries about a second wave in a country that has mostly contained the disease. The number of new cases in mainland China reported on Tuesday almost halved from a day earlier and remained a small fraction of those seen at the height of the outbreak in early 2020. However, authorities are implementing strict curbs whenever new cases emerge. The National Health Commission reported 55 new COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, down from 103 a day earlier. Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing, accounted for 40 of the 42 locally transmitted infections, with the capital and northeastern Heilongjiang province reporting one local case each. In a village in the south of Beijing that shares a border with Hebei, residents were stopping vehicles on Tuesday and asking to see health-tracking codes on mobile phones. “We have to be careful as we’re near Guan, where COVID cases were reported today,” said a volunteer security officer surnamed Wang, referring to At a highway checkpoint near Beijing’s border with Hebei, police in protective gowns ordered a car entering Beijing to return to Hebei after the driver was unable to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test.

China’s state planning agency said it expected population flows during next month’s Lunar New Year period to be “markedly less” than in normal years, with a bigger share of people choosing cars over other transport. Many provinces have issued notices urging workers to stay put for the festival.

Langfang, southeast of Beijing, said its 4.9 million residents would be put under home quarantine for seven days and would be subject to mass COVID-19 testing. Also on Tuesday, China said a World Health Organization team investigating the origin of the coronavirus would arrive on Thursday in the city of Wuhan, where the virus emerged in late 2019, after a delay that Beijing has called a “misunderstanding”. Shijiazhuang, Hebei’s capital, has been hardest hit in the latest surge in infections and has placed its 11 million people under lockdown. The province has shut sections of highway and is ordering vehicles registered to Shijiazhuang to turn back. A new guideline issued by the Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control recommended that taxi and ride-hailing operators suspend car-pooling services, and that drivers should get weekly nucleic acid tests and be vaccinated in order to work, the ruling Communist Party-backed Beijing Daily reported. As of Jan. 9, China had administered more than 9 million vaccine doses. Elsewhere, Heilongjiang province reported 36 new asymptomatic cases in Wangkui county, which also went into lockdown on Monday. China does not classify asymptomatic cases as confirmed COVID-19 infections. Across China, the number of new asymptomatic cases rose to 81 from 76 the previous day. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported in mainland China stands at 87,591, while the death toll unchanged at 4,634.

Posted on

The world has already applied 25 million doses of vaccines against Covid-19

The biggest vaccination campaign in history has begun. More than 25 million doses in 42 countries have been administered, according to data collected by Bloomberg. Delivering billions more will be one of the greatest logistical challenges ever undertaken. Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 8.02 million doses have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. At least 272,429 people have completed the two-dose vaccination regimen. The U.S. rollout fell short of federal projections as vaccinations proceeded unevenly across the states. The initial round of shots through early January has been doled out primarily through hospitals and other institutional health-care settings. The next phase will draw more on pharmacies and health clinics—places where vaccines are more traditionally administered—and will broaden the pool of people eligible to get the shots. The U.S. is managing state allocations of Pfizer and BioNTech’s vaccine, as well as Moderna’s shot, with the goal of getting 20 million doses distributed by early January. Both vaccines require two doses taken several weeks apart. The second doses are being held in reserve until they’re ready to be administered.

U.S. Vaccine Campaign

Jurisdiction Doses distributed Doses administered % shots used
U.S. totals 22,137,350 8,017,552 36.2
Texas 1,833,350 752,324 41.0
California 2,315,325 734,405 31.7
Florida 1,355,775 596,735 44.0
New York 1,208,900 554,683 45.9
Federal Entities 1,172,000 336,578 28.7
Ohio 646,450 297,013 45.9
Pennsylvania 812,550 265,191 32.6
Illinois 769,700 234,051 30.4
Tennessee 458,100 215,427 47.0
Colorado 381,775 200,877 52.6
New Jersey 572,250 200,204 35.0
Michigan 662,550 195,240 29.5
North Carolina 649,150 184,982 28.5
Virginia 556,625 177,945 32.0
Georgia 687,425 167,057 24.3
Washington 518,550 151,856 29.3
Massachusetts 449,625 151,430 33.7
Arizona 453,875 148,292 32.7
Maryland 371,425 142,402 38.3
Note: Data gathered from government websites, official statements and Bloomberg interviews

Global Effort to Stop Covid

The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine has now been cleared for use across North America, Europe and the Middle East, and vaccination campaigns have begun in at least 42 countries. That shot and the vaccine from Moderna were both found to reduce coronavirus infections by 95% in trials of tens of thousands of volunteers. A vaccine by AstraZeneca Plc and University of Oxford got its first major authorization, by the U.K., on Dec. 30. China has also cleared Sinopharm’s vaccine for general use, with the goal of vaccinating 50 million people there by early February. Other countries got a head start on vaccinations. China and Russia authorized their own shots in July and August, before they’d been fully tested. Since then, the countries have administered millions of doses, though they provide less frequent updates on their progress. With the start of the global vaccination campaign, countries have experienced unequal access to vaccines and varying degrees of efficiency in getting shots into people’s arms. Israel’s rate of innoculations dwarfs the efforts of other nations, with 20.1 doses administered for every 100 people. Most countries haven’t yet given their first shots.

Global Vaccination Campaign

Country No. of doses administered Per 100 people Last updated
Global total 25,839,924 – Jan. 10
China 9,000,000 0.64 Jan. 08
U.S. 8,017,552 2.44 Jan. 10
U.K. 2,000,000 2.99 Jan. 10
Israel 1,817,000 20.08 Jan. 10
U.A.E. 1,086,568 10.11 Jan. 10
Russia* 800,000 0.55 Jan. 02
Italy 627,946 1.04 Jan. 10
Germany 532,878 0.64 Jan. 09
Canada 314,492 0.84 Jan. 10
Spain 277,976 0.60 Jan. 08
Poland 200,022 0.53 Jan. 10
Saudi Arabia 130,000 0.38 Jan. 07
Denmark 114,926 1.98 Jan. 10
Romania 108,294 0.56 Jan. 10
Argentina 107,542 0.24 Jan. 08
France 93,000 0.14 Jan. 09
Bahrain 89,250 6.01 Jan. 10
Portugal 70,000 0.68 Jan. 08
Mexico 67,468 0.05 Jan. 08

Nations have poured billions of dollars into developing new vaccine technologies, testing them in thousands of volunteers, scaling up manufacturing, and then bringing them to market in record time. None of these shots, on its own, is enough to inoculate a global population of some 7.8 billion people. But together they represent humanity’s best chance of ending a scourge that has claimed more than 1.9 million lives and triggered global economic calamity.

Posted on

Making Building Ventilation Good Enough to Withstand a Pandemic

Here’s what it takes to upgrade HVAC systems — and how to know if particular indoor spaces have done it.

In October, students at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, held an intimate jazz concert at a bar downtown, with an audience of about 20 peers and faculty members — all of whom held digital passes indicating they’d recently tested negative for Covid-19. Two jazz ensembles performed, sometimes with masks and coverings for their instruments, and other times without. Behind the scenes, mechanical engineering professor Ty Newell tinkered with the airflow, turning the exhaust and recirculation fans on and off at different points during the night. His students monitored for changes in the air quality, using a special instrument to measure the concentrations of carbon dioxide and fine particulate matter, both key to determining if a building is well ventilated. The experiment sought to highlight the significance of proper ventilation, something that Newell said hadn’t been paid enough attention, until now. As evidence suggesting Covid-19 can spread through aerosol transmission continues to mount, health experts are focused less on sanitizing surfaces and more on improving indoor air quality. In December, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention finally put out its ventilation recommendations to combat Covid-19, based on standards set by ASHRAE, or the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers. Experts like Newell say the investment is worth it. It will be the key to a safe and healthy return to offices and schools, even with the rollout of Covid vaccines, he says. New disease outbreaks are expected to crop up in the future, and “apart from the pandemic, having an improved filter also gets other particulates out of the air that impact your health — these very fine particulates that easily go way down into your lung,” he says. “Only good things happen when you bring in more fresh air,” including a potential increase in productivity and academic performance.

Improving ventilation typically involves some combination of letting in more fresh air, upgrading air filtration systems and installing technologies like UV light to kill those pathogens.

The human nose may be able to smell the stagnant air of a very poorly ventilated room, but patrons or employees may not always know if a building is well-ventilated enough to affect tiny particles like the coronavirus. For a typical office building, current ASHRAE standards recommend 20 cubic feet of outdoor air per minute (cfm) per person, and experts like Sasse recommend that a room’s air should be replaced three to five times per hour. But the proper ventilation and air change rates vary depending on building size, occupancy and use.

One of the best ways to know is to measure the concentration of CO2 in each room or part of a building, he says, because it shows the amount of exhaled air that has built up in the room without enough fresh air to flush it out. C02 levels should register no more than 800 parts per million. “If you see [a place with] levels much above 800 ppm, don’t spend much time in there,” Newell advises.

But that measurement requires specific technology. Ideally, Newell would like everyone to carry a CO2 meter in their pockets, but those instruments can cost upwards of $100.

But it’s important to acknowledge that while ventilation helps mitigate your chances of contracting Covid-19, the risk is rarely zero.

For building managers implementing these upgrades, Sasse also advises clients to switch to higher-rated filters. Many HVAC systems in commercial and residential buildings use filters with MERV 8 ratings (for minimum efficiency reporting value), but the CDC recommends using MERV 13 filters, which can remove up to 90% of air particles, or a HEPA filter (for high efficiency particulate air) — what’s typically used by medical facilities. “A true HEPA filter is MERV 16, but not all systems can handle bigger filters because of the pressure they require,” Sasse says. More energy will be needed to heat and cool the additional amount of incoming air and to push existing air through denser filters. In some cases, HVAC systems may be too old to accommodate CDC-recommended changes, which would then require them to be replaced completely. “We’re sacrificing energy efficiency for health,” Sasse says. The payoff would be immediate, he says, pointing to a 2000 study from Harvard University looking at how air quality affected the use of sick leave among more than 3,000 employees across 40 buildings. The researchers found that office workers in moderately ventilated sections were 53% percent more likely than those in highly ventilated areas to take time off due to illness. Preventing those absences could save companies $480 per worker each year, according to the study, and as much as $22.8 billion nationally.

Posted on

Mutant coronavirus strain is more contagious as it replicates in the throat, say experts

The mutant coronavirus strain ripping through the country is more contagious because it replicates in the throat, scientists have said. The strain, is reportedly 70 per cent more transmissible than the original, and one of the reasons why England was plunged into a third national lockdown. But experts say evidence shows why it is jumping from one person to the next, is down to the throat of an infected person. A Public Health England and Birmingham University study has revealed that around 35 per cent of patients infected by the mutant strain had very high levels of covid in their samples. The swabs are taken from the back of the throat and nose and the authors of the study said high viral loads on these swabs are linked to more severe cases of Covid-19. Michael Kidd study leader, said the evidence could help scientists investigate how the variant makes more copies of itself in each person it infects. B ut the good news is, according to Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, if you’ve already had coronavirus, you are probably immune to the new strain. At a Downing Street press televised press conference earlier this week, he said: “What we know is that the 22 changes in the genetic code made the virus more transmissible. The experts said that it was “hard to determine” exactly why this variant spreads more rapidly. “But as far as we can see it doesn’t make it hidden from the immune system so if you had an infection before, the evidence is that you probably neutralise this virus as well. “The expectation is the same for the vaccine.

Posted on

In California, ICUs and morgues are filling up

Southern California is so overwhelmed with coronavirus cases that patients are backed up trying to get into hospitals, and bodies get stuck in another logjam once they leave. At one hospital in Orange County, ambulances loaded with patients are lining up outside waiting for space in the intensive care unit, and COVID-19 patients fill the emergency room hallway.

In other hard-hit areas like nearby Los Angeles County, where people are dying of the disease at the rate of one every eight minutes, refrigerated trailers will be brought in to provide extra storage capacity for bodies.

Dr Jim Keany is an ER doctor at Providence Mission Hospital in Mission Viejo:”What happens is when we get filled up with COVID patients, we can’t take care of the community in general. And that’s our concern as we do fill up. So what we’re seeing is we become overwhelmed with COVID patients, every bed is full, every nurse and doctor is occupied taking care of COVID patients. And then we struggle to service the community for standard emergencies.”

Despite strict stay-at-home measures that were set across most of the state last month, California, the most populous state with nearly 40 million people, leads the United States with nearly 2.6 million COVID-19 cases, over a million more than the next state, according to a Reuters tally of official data.

Its death toll of more than 28,000 trails only those of New York and Texas.Orange County officials had previously allowed hospitals to divert patients elsewhere when they were full, but now that virtually all the hospitals have reached capacity that policy has been rescinded. Dr. Robert Goldberg is a pulmonary and critical care physician at Providence Mission:”The issue now is that there’s so many patients coming in that we don’t have the time like we had before. So it’s good that we have the experience now and we’re able to treat these patients, but the numbers of patients that are coming in is becoming overwhelming.”Dr. Goldberg appealed to the public to help reduce the spread.

“COVID is real. It’s life threatening. People of all ages are dying. We need to work together. We need to get through this together. We need to wear masks, socially, isolate, get the vaccine when it’s available and at some point we’ll get this under control and move on. But we all need to do this together.”

Posted on

Biggest drop in UK new car sales since World War Two

British new car sales fell nearly 30% last year in their biggest annual drop since 1943 as lockdown measures to curb the spread of the coronavirus hit the sector, a trade industry body said Wednesday. Demand stood at 1.63 million cars in 2020, preliminary data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed. It was particularly hard hit by a 97% fall in April, the first full month of a national lockdown. Dealerships gradually reopened in June across the United Kingdom’s four nations. “We lost nearly three-quarters of a million units over three or four months, which we never got back,” said SMMT chief executive, Mike Hawes. Showrooms in England were closed again during a second lockdown in November, but many were better prepared with “click and collect” options, allowing more purchases, but still leading to a 27% year-on-year slump. The performance leaves new car sales at their lowest level since 1992 and suffering the biggest drop since 1943. Then, Britain was fighting World War II and industry was repurposed for the effort. Last year, the sector was also awaiting a trade deal with its biggest export market, the European Union. An agreement was reached on Dec. 24, meaning immediate tariffs and disruption were avoided, but the sector warned Wednesday of additional costs. Diesel cars accounted for around one in five sales while battery-electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles stood at a 10th. In common with other non-essential retail, the automobile sector faces the challenge of new national lockdowns announced in England and Scotland this week. The SMMT expects sales to be below 2 million this year, with the sector nervously looking ahead to March, one of the top two selling months of the year due to the change in the license plate series. “Where the industry is focussed at the moment, is what do we need to do to try to sustain sales … sustain manufacturing over the next two to three months, especially with March being such a critical month for the industry and that will undoubtedly be affected,” said Hawes.

Posted on

Vaccine could work worse against S. African strain – UK’s Vallance

https://youtu.be/nHqRgNgkJq8

  • Oxford’s Sir John Bell said African strain is more concerning than the Kent one
  • Vaccines believed to be effective against infectious UK variant VUI-202012/01
  • But South African variant has substantial changes in the structure of the protein’

Coronavirus vaccines could be ineffective against the highly-infectious South African mutation, a scientist who helped develop the Oxford jab has warned. Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, said the African strain is more concerning than the Kent one. Vaccines are believed to be effective against the highly-infectious UK variant VUI-202012/01 currently causing a massive spike in cases across the country. But he said the South African variant 501.V2 – detected in two locations in Britain – has ‘really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the protein’ meaning vaccines could fail to work. The Covid vaccine protects against the disease by teaching the immune system how to fight off the pathogen. It creates antibodies – disease-fighting proteins made and stored to fight off invaders in the future by latching onto their spike proteins. But if they are unable to recognise proteins because they have mutated, it means the body may struggle to attack a virus the second time and lead to a second infection.

Sir John told Times Radio: ‘The mutations associated with the South African form are really pretty substantial changes in the structure of the protein.

‘My gut feeling is the vaccine will be still effective against the Kent strain ‘I don’t know about the South African strain – there’s a big question mark about that.’ Britain first sounded the alarm about the variant VUI-202012/01 in December after an explosion of cases were linked to the strain. Top virologists in the US since admitted the strain – which was first seen in a patient in September – could have emerged there and went undetected because America’s genomics scheme is ‘sporadic’. Australia, Italy, Iceland, Spain and the Netherlands are among the countries who have since reported cases of the UK variant. Other Covid strains with near-identical genetic make up have also been reported in South Africa – with strain 501.V2 – and Nigeria – who detected strain P681H. South Africa detected 501.V2, which is feared to be more extreme than the UK’s VUI-202012/01. Several countries have banned travellers from South Africa to try and contain the spread of the new strain, including the UK, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Turkey. But the variant has already been detected in two locations in Britain in contacts of people who had recently visited the African nation. On Christmas Eve, another new variant called P681H was detected in Nigeria. Scientists say it is different to the other two but they do not currently believe the Nigerian strain is more infectious than previous strains. Concerns about vaccine ineffectiveness comes ahead of a major rollout of the Oxford coronavirus vaccine on Monday.